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[MLB Betting] Topic: How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game? |
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Nest21 |
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#101 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:03:11 PM
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Pasteur |
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#102 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:06:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011: Alien1's comments are facts...Pasteur's comments are speculation...facts mean more than speculation...
Sorry if I didn't use enough big words! 
What do you think is fact? That books try to invite equal action on both sides?
Casinos, sports-books and the people who operate them are probably some of the greediest people you'll ever encounter. The very goal of their business is one thing: Make money, and a lot of it. Do you think they've been content to just rake the juice and make no effort to increase profits for all this time?
I think you grossly underestimate them.
I get it if digging this deep isn't your cup of tea though. To each their own, best of luck to you.
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PitchBlack2011 |
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#103 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:08:40 PM So you are quoting someone who has a losing record in baseball this year...losing record for the last 6 months...
Also Colorado totals are always higher and 3 runs is no big deal...higher elevation...there is always more high scoring games there ever since they stated playing there...so the whole pointof that paragraph is based on false info... |
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#104 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:10:44 PM |
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meraby |
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#105 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:25:15 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011: So you are quoting someone who has a losing record in baseball this year...losing record for the last 6 months...
Also Colorado totals are always higher and 3 runs is no big deal...higher elevation...there is always more high scoring games there ever since they stated playing there...so the whole pointof that paragraph is based on false info... Don't pay attention to what I say because I'm a LIAR
We know that, don't worry |
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juliansorrel |
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#106 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:32:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
My last message is for 1forall...aka MK... you're absolutely right. Every single person on this thread is actually MK, and he has a losing record in baseball this season, and you're a good capper  Give it a rest pitch black - peopel aren't stupid. You were all over that guy's person before and then suddenly decided to make yourself a publicity through him and now you're lying about his record which is well documented and posted for everyone to see? You are pathetic liar. Bravo meraby |
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PitchBlack2011 |
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#107 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:35:34 PM MK's record last 6 months...
(517-487)(-0.16 Units)...right from his sites records... |
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14allall41 |
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#108 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:39:52 PM I ask you nicely - please leave my thread and don't comeback. This thread is about something more important than your insecurities.  |
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PitchBlack2011 |
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#109 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:43:31 PM |
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14allall41 |
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#110 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:52:06 PM |
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tafter12 |
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#111 Posted: 8/14/2012 8:58:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:
If you ask me, the total in the Boston/Baltimore game of 8.5 looks shady to me. Beckett has been a gas can lately and the Red Sox can put up runs, especially against lefties. So a total of 8.5? The public is hammering the over with over 90% of the action on it, and the line is holding steady at 8.5. So is it a vegas gift or a vegas trap? I'm wrong plenty but I say trap. I think Beckett's back is feeling better and both pitchers are looking to bounce back from sub-par outings last game.
This is an example of what I'm talking about.
I couldn't AGREE more with this!
In my experience, momentum cappers & regression cappers can make money. The problem the momentum player faces is when they find something that's "Too good to be true." Team A's on a huge winning streak, and just won by 7 runs 2 straight games, and they're now coming home where they have an outstanding home record. Momentum players - cross this game off of your board. It's that simple. Find another team who's about to start a nice streak.
The problem regression players face is "making too many plays." Not everything is regression. When a 60% team wins 4 in a row and their last one by 5 runs. THIS IS NOT REGRESSION. What the regression player should look for is a 50% team that just won by 8 runs back to back and is now heading out of town where they have an enormous road record that cannot sustain itself.
So then why do most gamblers lose? For the same reason why I suck at poker! I play too many hands!
BOL -
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#112 Posted: 8/14/2012 10:20:19 PM 
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14allall41 |
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#113 Posted: 8/15/2012 1:32:49 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur: And the under in Baltimore hits. Barely, but a win is a win
Great! I went 3-0 today (see my thread) with +7.62 Units! |
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meraby |
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#114 Posted: 8/15/2012 1:43:44 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
I have only been a member of his site for 6 months...so I can verify that his negative unit showing is true before that who knows anyone can get a website and make up a winning record...notice his plays are not monitered by anyone...
BTW, since you stirred this thread into MK and also doubted him (you know he's great, but you tried to doubt him) - he went 5-0 sweep today in MLB after 5-2 Yesterday. And congrats 14 for your sweep as well today! |
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2169 |
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#115 Posted: 8/15/2012 2:20:18 AM |
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#116 Posted: 8/15/2012 2:27:05 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by 2169: The SF/Was totals the last two nights were traps
Not so sure about tonight. I think they put a fair total out there, and the over was lucky as hell it hit.
I do think the total in LA was what I call a fake trap, or a gift back to the public. It sat at 8 all day and looked like such an easy over. And it was.
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14allall41 |
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#117 Posted: 8/15/2012 8:04:13 AM
Games that sharps attacked early were:
PHI@MIA Totals DET@MIN Totals LAD@PIT Totals BOS@BAL ML |
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14allall41 |
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#118 Posted: 8/15/2012 8:26:55 AM Quote: An early game in Miami caught a lot of attention and bettors money totals wise and side wise as well. Halladay vs Buehrle does not seem like a riddle to most. So, after separating the action between the totals and the sides, I can see that money in large portions - as I call it - Big Money has been on Miami and Under. Miami coming big from Asian market and Under big from an early action (what is referred as sharp action). Please pay attention to one interesting fact: Under was pounded in a very condensed way like someone was trying to bring the line down which very well result in late action on Over to gain the margin. My lean here as early as now is: MIA ML, Over 7 So, I would say there is entrappment there making everyone to go on a clear away favorite with the line a bit tempting. I am not getting tempted.
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14allall41 |
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#119 Posted: 8/15/2012 9:35:10 AM The game in Minnesota is a challenging one as DeVries is coming off an awful 1 1/2 innings performance in his last outing and it is hard to expect the repetition of that otherwise the managerial staff would skip him. That for me already is a half of an Under play. I'm not sure side wise here since the odds on Sherzer to win seem in the area of normalcy considering it is an away team odds. I will lean here MIN RL and Under 9.5 |
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14allall41 |
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#120 Posted: 8/15/2012 9:57:51 AM  |
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#121 Posted: 8/15/2012 10:19:50 AM
The other line people seem to cry foul about is how cheap Strasburg is at -120, but he'll likely be gone by the 6th inning and then you have a pretty bad bullpen come in to mop up, and that's where it can go wrong for the Nats. The line is fine.
Totals seem fine to me too. I think the only early play I'll be on is the under in Seattle. There's nothing shady about a total of 6.5, it's just a straight play on two teams that are trending under.
Haven't looked at the later games yet. Busy at work 
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14allall41 |
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#122 Posted: 8/15/2012 1:09:39 PM |
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juliansorrel |
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#123 Posted: 8/15/2012 1:38:26 PM |
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#124 Posted: 8/15/2012 3:09:39 PM
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liljdubs25 |
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#125 Posted: 8/15/2012 3:14:28 PM |
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