Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Thx Vegas & Geniuses 8/11/12
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#1
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:23:08 AM
Dear Vegas-
Thanks for the win on Friday with the Phillies. I see that the same situation has occurred with a different pitcher on the hill for the Phil's.  "St Louis Can't lose two in a row, right?"  Nice lure!
Sincerely,
Seabiscuit

PHI -133

Shiny Lures
30-17

Fulcrum
2-0


quote
Gogic send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Gogic
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 119
Location:
#2
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:46:39 AM
I know this fits the criteria, but aren't you worried about Stl hitting very well vs lefties??
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:50:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gogic:

I know this fits the criteria, but aren't you worried about Stl hitting very well vs lefties??


To be perfectly blunt, no. 

quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#4
Posted: 8/11/2012 7:54:04 AM
My response back to people who think this way is two things:

1) aren't you worried about teams averages versus lefties regressing towards the norm?

2) aren't you worried about Cliff Lee's history towards the end of a season and how he absolutely steamrolls teams? 

...this play is not about an argument.  It's simply a worse record, higher ERA, favored, and consensus has overloaded on the dog.  4 rubrics - plain and simple.

I'm actually seeing this play stronger when the either the road team is favored or when the home team is favored by 120 or more. 

BOL 
quote
domnick send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
domnick
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 201
Location: Pennsylvania
#5
Posted: 8/11/2012 10:04:38 AM
i like the play
quote
belltheringer send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
belltheringer
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 151
Location: Connecticut
#6
Posted: 8/11/2012 10:27:48 AM
Been tailing you for a little now, and as a Cards fan it's tough for me to place the bet (like last night), but I think you are right here and will be tailing again. BOL taft
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#7
Posted: 8/11/2012 11:36:09 AM
DOM

Ringer
quote
weeble5672
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
weeble5672
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 66656
Location: Ontario
#8
Posted: 8/11/2012 11:44:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gogic:

I know this fits the criteria, but aren't you worried about Stl hitting very well vs lefties??


The linesmakers know all of these stats and 100 more when they make the lines.

With ya on this one, tafter.
quote
jezhead send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jezhead
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 3911
Location: Ontario
#9
Posted: 8/11/2012 11:46:48 AM
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#10
Posted: 8/11/2012 11:52:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by weeble5672:



The linesmakers know all of these stats and 100 more when they make the lines.

With ya on this one, tafter.


Precisely! 

I won't deter from my money management strategy, but this makes me want to play it even harder now! 

BOL 
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#11
Posted: 8/11/2012 11:53:26 AM
JEZ
quote
Gogic send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Gogic
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 119
Location:
#12
Posted: 8/11/2012 12:14:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tafter12:

My response back to people who think this way is two things:

1) aren't you worried about teams averages versus lefties regressing towards the norm?

2) aren't you worried about Cliff Lee's history towards the end of a season and how he absolutely steamrolls teams? 

...this play is not about an argument.  It's simply a worse record, higher ERA, favored, and consensus has overloaded on the dog.  4 rubrics - plain and simple.

I'm actually seeing this play stronger when the either the road team is favored or when the home team is favored by 120 or more. 

BOL 


You've got a point there. I'm not following nor fading, just would like to get a bit more insight as this angle will be in my tool box in the next season. Than again, at 30-17 who needs scratching beneath the surface?? ;-)

Good luck today.
quote
WizardOfAss send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Caesars Palace |
WizardOfAss
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 148
Location: Nevada
#13
Posted: 8/11/2012 1:11:42 PM
Cardinals only win this game if it were in October
quote
ONEforthaMONEY send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ONEforthaMONEY
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 331
Location: California
#14
Posted: 8/11/2012 1:40:27 PM
Love this spot for cliff 

love the play TAFT

BOL my friend
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#15
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:50:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gogic:



You've got a point there. I'm not following nor fading, just would like to get a bit more insight as this angle will be in my tool box in the next season. Than again, at 30-17 who needs scratching beneath the surface?? ;-)

Good luck today.


Gogic...
Different styles work in different parts of a season, especially baseball.  In April, look more for dogs; in July, look more at favorites.  If I tried posting this play in April, it probably would have gotten its behind kicked.  Either way, unfortunately, each season takes on its own flavor too.

Also, 47 games is not a huge sample size; however, I'm happy with the results.  I didn't post the units, but these favorites have never been more than 150, and most of them are around the 125 range even though we've seen them come up as -108, -110 -117 etc.  These favorites, I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong guys, seem to average between -120 and -130

I've learned, in my own experience, that different things work in different times of the season, and not all good ideas transfer over to other sports. 

BOL


quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#16
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:51:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WizardOfAss:

Cardinals only win this game if it were in October


I can't say I disagree. 
quote
docterd597 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
docterd597
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13159
Location: Connecticut
#17
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:52:24 PM
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:54:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ONEforthaMONEY:

Love this spot for cliff 

love the play TAFT

BOL my friend


One For The Money!

I'd like to see this play get to 40 wins before it gets to 20 losses!


quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#19
Posted: 8/11/2012 2:55:58 PM
Like what you've got going here.  
quote
cpgraves
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cpgraves
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 760
Location: California
#20
Posted: 8/11/2012 3:08:05 PM
Much respect Tafter, I remember seeing your very first post here with your plays and your strategy for reading lines.  I admit I was very apprehensive of your approach, but it has definitely worked out for you.  Impressed.  Keep it going. 
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#21
Posted: 8/11/2012 3:49:35 PM
CP Graves

Silly

Doctered
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#22
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:00:00 PM
Some people swear by momentum.  My question to these momentum players is this...

Why don't 1/2 the teams end up 162-0 and the other half 0-162? 

Things always change!  Funny how, in december, we cannot seem to recall hot and humid it gets in the summer.  And, how, in July, we just cannot seem to remember how freakin cold it is in January! 

I learned my lesson a few years ago when I faded an absolutely fired up West Virginia team in the Fiesta Bowl. 

This is what I learned.

1) never fade a bowl team with a new coach
2) never bet on a team with a freshmen quarterback in a bowl game
3) never bet on a team that's disappointed in their bowl game spot
4) never bet with money you cannot afford to lose

I learned the value in going the opposite way that night, and I'LL NEVER FORGET IT! 

Everyone was on OKC.  I took the plus money with Lebron James and Dwayne Wade.  How was this opposite way? 

Everyone was betting with RESENTFUL MONEY, not smart money; they were betting to get even with MIAMI because they got their fools kicked against DALLAS the previous year.

Dallas was the dog, they won.

Miami was the dog, they won.

NYG dogs, they won.

GB huge favorites, sucked in game 1 of the playoffs. 

Chicago Bulls sucked against the 76ers. 

I hope LA Lakers make it to the finals against Miami again.  Miami will be dogs again! And I will win AGAIN by taking Miami! 

Nash, Kobe, Gasol are old, and D. Howard is grossly overrated.
The square play is the lakers!

BOL
quote
tafter12
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
tafter12
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2859
Location: United States
#23
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:07:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cpgraves:

Much respect Tafter, I remember seeing your very first post here with your plays and your strategy for reading lines.  I admit I was very apprehensive of your approach, but it has definitely worked out for you.  Impressed.  Keep it going. 


Thanks.  I believe you're referring to my first baseball post for this season, right?

Because I can tell you that I was posting play for NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB a couple years ago.  I believed that I found numerical patterns that no one else knew.  I started a blog.  I had a list of 20 plays across all the various sports.  I was a huge hit.  I had over 1000 page views per day because I was posting winners consistently.  Then on super bowl sunday, I predicted that GB would win by 7, and they won by 6.  On this same day, all 3 of my NCAAB totals plays were winners. 

Maybe it was a matter of chance, but I preceded to get absolutely steamrolled in NHL, NCAAB and NBA for the rest of the season.  I was completely embarrassed.    What did I learn? 

I'm not posting the exact details of all my plays anymore. 

The fulcrum play will not be explained.  I'll post it, but I'm not defining it.  I defined the shiny lures play, but it's still only going to work in certain parts of the season. 

BOL
quote
CoverLane send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
CoverLane
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6903
Location:
#24
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:08:00 PM
Tafter you seem to have a solid head on your shoulders -- I applaud you for that. 

I like your take on dogs as well.

I'll be writing down your bowl game tips for future use when the bowl games actually roll around

Until then, good luck with the Phillies tonight sir
quote
cpgraves
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cpgraves
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 760
Location: California
#25
Posted: 8/11/2012 4:56:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by tafter12:



Thanks.  I believe you're referring to my first baseball post for this season, right?

Because I can tell you that I was posting play for NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB a couple years ago.  I believed that I found numerical patterns that no one else knew.  I started a blog.  I had a list of 20 plays across all the various sports.  I was a huge hit.  I had over 1000 page views per day because I was posting winners consistently.  Then on super bowl sunday, I predicted that GB would win by 7, and they won by 6.  On this same day, all 3 of my NCAAB totals plays were winners. 

Maybe it was a matter of chance, but I preceded to get absolutely steamrolled in NHL, NCAAB and NBA for the rest of the season.  I was completely embarrassed.    What did I learn? 

I'm not posting the exact details of all my plays anymore. 

The fulcrum play will not be explained.  I'll post it, but I'm not defining it.  I defined the shiny lures play, but it's still only going to work in certain parts of the season. 

BOL

Yes I am referring to your first post for this season.  I wish I knew about your success previous, so I could have had a little more faith in your plays. As long as you keep posting winners, you don't have to explain the fulcrum (however I would love to know) haha.  BOL

Friend Request sent.. 
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.