Posted: 8/8/2012 12:11:37 PM
YTD 188-184 +36.99
CLV (Closing Line Value): +45.43
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +18.15
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
1-1 yesterday. Took a shot with the Jays at a nice number but they didn't come through. Probably got lucky with the Orioles cashing but it's been way way too long since I've had a game like that turn my way so it's long overdue.
Onto today. Three plays, all bet at the opening numbers provided by BetOnline.
959 Miami Marlins +135
970 Boston Red Sox +115
977 Toronto Blue Jays +130
I do not feel a pitcher like Chris Young should be laying this type of chalk. I mean, he closed +120 on the road his last start against Zito, which means his power-rating is about 10 cents worse than 'ol Barry... and Zito gets some really, really ugly numbers. Truth of the matter is that a guy with the lack of stuff that Young has it's only a matter of time until he gets knocked around. Hoping it is tonight. Eovaldi is nothing special, but there really isn't much to warrant Young laying this type of number.
Liked the opening number with the home dog Red Sox. Beckett closed +120 at home his last start against Verlander, the highest power-ranked pitcher in the game. As good as Harrison and the Rangers are, there's no way they're only 5 cents worse than Verlander. You aren't going to see Verlander only -125 at home against Harrison, especially when you consider Verlander was just -180 against the Yankees. I had this one capped at -105/-105, so happy with the significant plus money on the Sox.
This Jays/Rays game feels like an even matchup all around. Equal offenses, maybe a slight edge to the Rays in the starting pitching department but not much. I think -125 is more appropriate here, you could maybe argue -130/+120 Tampa but to me that is stretching it a bit. At the opening number of -140/+130 I felt the Jays held enough value to make a play.
Good luck today everybody.