(PHI/WASH) Cliff Lee is getting way UNDER valued tonight

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: (PHI/WASH) Cliff Lee is getting way UNDER valued tonight
LockBurger PM LockBurger
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:44:08 PM
damn zito, not a lot of love in your threads. i saw your padres thread last night and everyone would come in and say "no reds are gonna win" hahahha. keep doing what you're doing, i like philly first 5 +1/2 myself, good luck
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:46:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LockBurger:

damn zito, not a lot of love in your threads. i saw your padres thread last night and everyone would come in and say "no reds are gonna win" hahahha. keep doing what you're doing, i like philly first 5 +1/2 myself, good luck

It's all good man, a lot of my picks are against these idiots who are all about the chalk, so I expect a lot of disagreements. But I don't sweat it brotha. 

Good luck 2 u aswell. Hopefully the fighting Phils bring Strasburg down! 
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:47:03 PM
From Jeff Scott Sports on Pregame Forums: He's on the Over though.

Stephen Strasburg is coming close to his 160 inning pitch limit this year, so I don't see him going too deep in this one. That will give the ball over to a Nats pen that has a 4.74 ERA in it's last 10 games. Lets also note that in Stephens last 5 starts their pen has allowed 14 total runs once he has left the game. I Know the Phils offense has been struggling and they will be without Victorino and maybe Pence for this one, but they still have some pop ion their bats and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, including 4.1 rpg in games that Lee has started. Speaking of Lee, He may be traded by game time, but if he isn't he comes in with a 3.54 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA at night on the year. He has made 3 career starts in this park and has a 4.21 ERA in those starts. The Nationals have cranked it up offensively as they have averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They average just 4.1 rpg at home, but in their last 14 in this park they have cranked out 5.4 rpg. I know the Phils roster may look very different tonight, but even if Lee doesn't start, whoever does would still be a downgrade from him. The Phils should get 1 or two off of Strasburg and they get a few more once he is out of there. Look for at least 8 runs in this one.
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:50:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Beckwith:

From Jeff Scott Sports on Pregame Forums: He's on the Over though.

Stephen Strasburg is coming close to his 160 inning pitch limit this year, so I don't see him going too deep in this one. That will give the ball over to a Nats pen that has a 4.74 ERA in it's last 10 games. Lets also note that in Stephens last 5 starts their pen has allowed 14 total runs once he has left the game. I Know the Phils offense has been struggling and they will be without Victorino and maybe Pence for this one, but they still have some pop ion their bats and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, including 4.1 rpg in games that Lee has started. Speaking of Lee, He may be traded by game time, but if he isn't he comes in with a 3.54 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA at night on the year. He has made 3 career starts in this park and has a 4.21 ERA in those starts. The Nationals have cranked it up offensively as they have averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They average just 4.1 rpg at home, but in their last 14 in this park they have cranked out 5.4 rpg. I know the Phils roster may look very different tonight, but even if Lee doesn't start, whoever does would still be a downgrade from him. The Phils should get 1 or two off of Strasburg and they get a few more once he is out of there. Look for at least 8 runs in this one.

Good insight  Wouldn't be shocked if it goes Over the number.

I just think Lee pitches better then most think (their thinking going on recent performances from Lee) 
LockBurger PM LockBurger
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:55:42 PM
you hit the nail on the head with the shady line movement
MojoGypson PM MojoGypson
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Posted: 7/31/2012 4:58:59 PM
nything can happen- but the Phillies downright suck this year.
It hardly matters who is pitching.
I would never take them against a team like Wash
but
GL
JeffSymons PM JeffSymons
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:02:42 PM
Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche aren't in the Nats lineup either....so, if anything, the under is looking good, and maybe some value on Cliff Lee too....
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:10:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LockBurger:

you hit the nail on the head with the shady line movement

zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:11:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MojoGypson:

nything can happen- but the Phillies downright suck this year.
It hardly matters who is pitching.
I would never take them against a team like Wash
but
GL

Just because they suck all year doesn't mean theyll suck tonight 
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:12:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JeffSymons:

Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche aren't in the Nats lineup either....so, if anything, the under is looking good, and maybe some value on Cliff Lee too....

That's great news! No Zimmerman is great, he's been their best hitter the last month. 
DeezyAZ81 PM DeezyAZ81
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:24:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by zzitoo75:


That's great news! No Zimmerman is great, he's been their best hitter the last month. 


Interesting play.  Good luck.  Several angles to this game.  Cliff hasn't had great support all year.  Has one win all season.  Sounds like you are backing him based on past reputation.  Not a bad risk with Nats depleted lineup tonight.  However, you have to wonder if phillies will completely be on there game tonight after losing two key pieces to their everyday lineup, especially Victorino who was key figure for many seasons in Philly.  Good luck!
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:27:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DeezyAZ81:



Interesting play.  Good luck.  Several angles to this game.  Cliff hasn't had great support all year.  Has one win all season.  Sounds like you are backing him based on past reputation.  Not a bad risk with Nats depleted lineup tonight.  However, you have to wonder if phillies will completely be on there game tonight after losing two key pieces to their everyday lineup, especially Victorino who was key figure for many seasons in Philly.  Good luck!

I'm backing him tonight expecting a dominant performance, I think all that trade talk got to his head for a little. But that should be all cleared out by now.

I think the Phillies scrap out 2-3 runs before Stras leaves the game to his bullpen, that's when I think the Phils
DeezyAZ81 PM DeezyAZ81
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:30:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by zzitoo75:


I'm backing him tonight expecting a dominant performance, I think all that trade talk got to his head for a little. But that should be all cleared out by now.

I think the Phillies scrap out 2-3 runs before Stras leaves the game to his bullpen, that's when I think the Phils


You could be right.  Good luck!  Just better hope he goes deep because that Phils bullpen is atrocious. 
KktdocT PM KktdocT
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:30:09 PM
GL, mate.
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 5:33:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT:

GL, mate.

Denson7 PM Denson7
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:00:04 PM
Sorry but Rollins( second highest RBI total on team at 36. Not good) and Utley aren't that big of threats this season. I love Ryan Howard but hasn't really got in a groove yet. So I still feel that their lineup is  very weak. 
Denson7 PM Denson7
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:00:42 PM
Bol someone has to win. 
knoxcr PM knoxcr
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:01:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by zzitoo75:


Line opened at LVH (Wash -145, now it's Wash -145)
Line opened at Sportsbook (Wash -150, now it's Wash -150)

With 85% of the public going with Washinton, wouldn't you think the books would make Washington more expensive instead of leaving the line exactly the same??? Doesn't seem right! Sounds shady to me

I stand corrected... line has now dropped at both my books to -142.  I honestly can't back the Phillies regardless of what this line move is trying to tell me, but good luck with your play.
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:11:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Denson7:

Sorry but Rollins( second highest RBI total on team at 36. Not good) and Utley aren't that big of threats this season. I love Ryan Howard but hasn't really got in a groove yet. So I still feel that their lineup is  very weak. 

Those big 3 will do damage vs Strasburg tonight 
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:12:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by knoxcr:


I stand corrected... line has now dropped at both my books to -142.  I honestly can't back the Phillies regardless of what this line move is trying to tell me, but good luck with your play.

Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:13:33 PM
I saw it as high as Wash -153 and now it's -142 on 5dimes. It's definitely a play for me, just waiting for the number to go back up a little before game time.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:15:53 PM
Wash dropped to -140.
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:16:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Beckwith:

I saw it as high as Wash -153 and now it's -142 on 5dimes. It's definitely a play for me, just waiting for the number to go back up a little before game time.

Looks like every1 is jumping on Lee the last hour...I got Lee @ +140, now he's +131 @ my book.
WinWithSystems PM WinWithSystems
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:38:19 PM
Agreed. Now is the time in the season to pick spots carefully and find value in the dogs that are being under-valued by the oddsmakers. It will happen a lot from this point forward.
zzitoo75 PM zzitoo75
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Posted: 7/31/2012 6:40:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinWithSystems:

Agreed. Now is the time in the season to pick spots carefully and find value in the dogs that are being under-valued by the oddsmakers. It will happen a lot from this point forward.

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