7/29 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 7/29 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 11:59:40 PM


7-29





KingScorpio PM KingScorpio
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:00:32 AM

STL

K.C.

KingScorpio PM KingScorpio
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:02:34 AM
Liriano was traded
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:03:44 AM


Leans:

STL (-150)

CIN (-165)

HOU (+130)


si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:04:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Liriano was traded

Yeah, I just saw that, I'll fix the sheet in the morning when they announce the replacement starter.
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:04:55 AM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:05:18 AM
St. Louis and Cincinnati look like no-brainers.  Can anybody make a compelling argument why not to take these two teams tomorrow in some way shape or form.
DanTos8715 PM DanTos8715
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:10:42 AM
It just told me that there were too many people trying to view the document 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:13:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

It just told me that there were too many people trying to view the document 

Yeah, a lot of people have had this problem lately.  I emailed customer support at Google to get an explanation on the bandwidth limit on Google Drive and to see if I can get that lifted somehow.  I'm doing everything I can to keep the files small, they're only 100 KB each.  I'm sorry about this inconvenience.
DanTos8715 PM DanTos8715
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:15:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

St. Louis and Cincinnati look like no-brainers.  Can anybody make a compelling argument why not to take these two teams tomorrow in some way shape or form.

Just depends on if some freak lineup gets put out there.  What if Holliday and a few others rest.  I've seen stranger things.
muchogusto PM muchogusto
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:17:17 AM
Not like you dont have this info, but just something to look at :Cubs are 11 of 14 at home and Mahlon is on best stretch of his career.  He is 3 and 0 last three with 1.34 and .98 era last five starts.  I am also all over the Cards which this week could be enough for anyone else to be wary.  I've been around a while and barely ever post, but I check your posts out and compare to the other top cappers daily.  You are good.  Go Cards
mattdew PM mattdew
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:22:08 AM
I am surprised see you take Cin instead of Seattle.  GL on your picks.
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:23:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

St. Louis and Cincinnati look like no-brainers.  Can anybody make a compelling argument why not to take these two teams tomorrow in some way shape or form.


I'm placing a bet on STL anytime they face a lefty for the rest of the season.  Period.

The only argument not to take Cincy I can think of:  Latos has had the luxury of a pretty soft schedule, and his numbers are still just decent.  Facing Colorado in their crib does funny things to pitchers.  Even Cueto struggled there today.  But you have to think any mistake Latos makes, freaking gas can Sanchez will give back and then some?


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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:26:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by muchogusto:

Not like you dont have this info, but just something to look at :Cubs are 11 of 14 at home and Mahlon is on best stretch of his career.  He is 3 and 0 last three with 1.34 and .98 era last five starts.  I am also all over the Cards which this week could be enough for anyone else to be wary.  I've been around a while and barely ever post, but I check your posts out and compare to the other top cappers daily.  You are good.  Go Cards

There's still nothing 'elite' about Maholm's advanced numbers to indicate that his recent run is anything but an anomaly.  I'm still going to think of him as a 4.2 ERA with a low K-rate.  Wainwright is an ace, he's my #17 ranked pitcher.  In addition to the pitching advantage, the offenses are even more polar.  St. Louis ranks #1 against lefties and Chicago ranks #28 against righties.  
sicknesscity PM sicknesscity
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:26:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

St. Louis and Cincinnati look like no-brainers.  Can anybody make a compelling argument why not to take these two teams tomorrow in some way shape or form.


Well, Maholm is 7-3 at home this year so far and the Cubs are 24-23 at home.  For a bad team they sure play decent baseball at home.  Also, the Cards are only 8-12 in Wainwright's starts this year and an alarming 3-6 in his starts on the road.  I'd argue there's too much juice given those statistics.

I like the Reds more but Latos is prone to giving up homers.  I think the Reds are fine if he can keep the ball in the park.  Sanchez is inconsistent, walks too many hitters and doesn't go deep into a game.  The Reds are more likely to win than the Cards but that's only my opinion.
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:27:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattdew:

I am surprised see you take Cin instead of Seattle.  GL on your picks.

Haven't locked in anything yet.  These are just leans based on superficial comparison of my model output and the Vegas lines.  I'll be digging deeper on all the games before I finalize anything.
LawsonJames PM LawsonJames
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:27:54 AM
Why do guys like Jonathan Sanchez and Jeremy Guthrie get shot after shot? It is perplexing to say the least.
sicknesscity PM sicknesscity
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:30:01 AM
Actually, the Cubs are 25-23 after today's win.  I forgot to add that into their total but it's negligible.
muchogusto PM muchogusto
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:30:12 AM
Absolutely.  You are preaching to the choir.  I'm all over the cards for the same reasons.  Just throwing something out there and attaching a compliment.  Good luck 
eyemtlaw PM eyemtlaw
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:37:23 AM
Keep up the great discipline and excellent capping. This has been a great week and if these games don't give you the same feeling don't play them. 
TruckerMan PM TruckerMan
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:38:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Yeah, a lot of people have had this problem lately.  I emailed customer support at Google to get an explanation on the bandwidth limit on Google Drive and to see if I can get that lifted somehow.  I'm doing everything I can to keep the files small, they're only 100 KB each.  I'm sorry about this inconvenience.

You don't have to apologize to anyone. Thanks for taking the time.  

As for Stl tomorrow, I love them.  As another poster said, they destroy lefties.  If they can hit Capuano, and furthermore, Kershaw, they can hit Maholm.  
muchogusto PM muchogusto
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:40:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TruckerMan:


You don't have to apologize to anyone. Thanks for taking the time.  

As for Stl tomorrow, I love them.  As another poster said, they destroy lefties.  If they can hit Capuano, and furthermore, Kershaw, they can hit Maholm.  

Great point
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:41:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by muchogusto:

Absolutely.  You are preaching to the choir.  I'm all over the cards for the same reasons.  Just throwing something out there and attaching a compliment.  Good luck 

Absolutely.  I appreciate when guys come out of the woodwork to say thanks.  I'd be lying if I didn't say a little praise gets me motivated sometimes.  Thanks for the kind words and good luck!
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:44:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

Keep up the great discipline and excellent capping. This has been a great week and if these games don't give you the same feeling don't play them. 

Sound advise.  It's been a great two weeks in fact - I've only lost 3 bets in the last 13 days.  I'll be keeping this thought in the back of my mind while I cap Sunday's card.
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Posted: 7/29/2012 12:46:37 AM
The Cards are a much stronger play if Freese plays.  He's their best hitter against lefties with a .375 average.  He was expected to play today but sat with the calf injury.
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