7/28 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 7/28 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/27/2012 11:45:51 PM


7-28





ETWINS PM ETWINS
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Posted: 7/27/2012 11:49:32 PM

Si1Ly your MLB Breakdown sheet is the first thing I look for when im on covers.Thanks SOOOO much for the effort.

 

blairb2smooth PM blairb2smooth
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Posted: 7/27/2012 11:51:40 PM
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 7/27/2012 11:51:46 PM
The best post of the day
mattdew PM mattdew
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Posted: 7/27/2012 11:56:40 PM
good stuff, where's the stats for pirates vs astros?  I am leaning over for the game
VietBlonde PM VietBlonde
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:09:22 AM

THANK YOU MASTER si1ly for sharing!!! We really appreciate all of your hard work.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:09:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattdew:

good stuff, where's the stats for pirates vs astros?  I am leaning over for the game

Not enough data for the Stros guy and Wandy making a start against his old team.. I felt the projections weren't accurate enough for my standards so I decided to exclude it altogether.  Not much lean on the total for me though, I think this game is best to stay away from.  Too many variables unaccounted for.
mattdew PM mattdew
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:12:57 AM
thx for sharing....
aloja27 PM aloja27
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:18:11 AM
got a random question for you... if you were given the miami heat -1000 vs kent state would u lay 5gs?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:25:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by aloja27:

got a random question for you... if you were given the miami heat -1000 vs kent state would u lay 5gs?

5,000 to win 500

That's 1.66 units for me.  The mathematician in me says it's not worth the risk.


But if the Miami Heat were going to play Kent State in a serious game the Heat would win probably 100% of the time.  I would lay a lot more than 5,000 if I could get a -1000 moneyline on that game.  That's when you start asking yourself, what's my house worth?  Haha.
BigUnit PM BigUnit
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:25:26 AM
Thanks for posting the info, I do look at it with all the other garbage I go through. 
KingScorpio PM KingScorpio
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:37:33 AM
Favs 45-20 this week
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:44:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Favs 45-20 this week

I'm trying to take advantage of the heavy lines - I've bet three underdogs on the run line in a row (2-1).  The weekend seems like a good place for Vegas to clean up on some unfavorable dogs.  I will be looking out for them.  Let me know what dogs you're looking at.

utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:45:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


5,000 to win 500

That's 1.66 units for me.  The mathematician in me says it's not worth the risk.


But if the Miami Heat were going to play Kent State in a serious game the Heat would win probably 100% of the time.  I would lay a lot more than 5,000 if I could get a -1000 moneyline on that game.  That's when you start asking yourself, what's my house worth?  Haha.

He must be talking about Brazil soccer match..
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:55:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:


He must be talking about Brazil soccer match..

I don't know garbage about football.  I can only imagine that in a game where less than 4 total goals are usually scored in a game, the probability of major upsets is far more likely than in a game like basketball that is so dominated by physicality.  
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/28/2012 1:19:23 AM

Lean:

LAD (-110)
KingScorpio PM KingScorpio
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Posted: 7/28/2012 1:26:37 AM
Clients will be happy with a lean on the FOX game of the week,but the only evidence is a cheap line on Zito and the home team.
sicknesscity PM sicknesscity
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Posted: 7/28/2012 2:09:06 AM
I like the Cubs today but your model apparently hates them.  It's interesting because Samardzija is ranked 52nd and Kelly ranked as 152nd.  The Cubs' hitting numbers are terrible.  There's no disputing that. 

However, Samardzija's FIP is 3.67 and his xFIP is 3.46.  Meanwhile, Kelly's FIP is 4.34 and his xFIP is 4.32.  So Samardzija's 4.57 ERA is due for improvement if I go by those numbers and Kelly's 2.75 ERA is due for some regression. 

Why does your model have the Cards winning this game 61.6% of the time?
lQQkIwon PM lQQkIwon
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Posted: 7/28/2012 2:51:07 AM
KingScorpio PM KingScorpio
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Posted: 7/28/2012 3:00:28 AM
Wondering why everyone isn't on the Yankee killer ????
doliver517 PM doliver517
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Posted: 7/28/2012 3:00:55 AM

@KingScorpio-

I just want to tell you how cool I think you are....carry on.....

VietBlonde PM VietBlonde
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Posted: 7/28/2012 3:14:57 AM

doliver517 said......

@KingScorpio-

I just want to tell you how cool I think you are....carry on.....

Totally agree with you doliver517!!!

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Posted: 7/28/2012 4:05:18 AM
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Posted: 7/28/2012 7:23:29 AM
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Posted: 7/28/2012 7:30:17 AM
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