Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 7/28 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#1
Posted: 7/27/2012 11:45:51 PM


7-28





quote
ETWINS send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ETWINS
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 299
Location:
#2
Posted: 7/27/2012 11:49:32 PM

Si1Ly your MLB Breakdown sheet is the first thing I look for when im on covers.Thanks SOOOO much for the effort.

 

quote
blairb2smooth send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairb2smooth
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 37
Location: Florida
#3
Posted: 7/27/2012 11:51:40 PM
quote
Pasteur
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Pasteur
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2938
Location: North Carolina
#4
Posted: 7/27/2012 11:51:46 PM
The best post of the day
quote
mattdew send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mattdew
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 218
Location:
#5
Posted: 7/27/2012 11:56:40 PM
good stuff, where's the stats for pirates vs astros?  I am leaning over for the game
quote
VietBlonde send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
VietBlonde
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 681
Location: California
#6
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:09:22 AM

THANK YOU MASTER si1ly for sharing!!! We really appreciate all of your hard work.

quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#7
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:09:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattdew:

good stuff, where's the stats for pirates vs astros?  I am leaning over for the game

Not enough data for the Stros guy and Wandy making a start against his old team.. I felt the projections weren't accurate enough for my standards so I decided to exclude it altogether.  Not much lean on the total for me though, I think this game is best to stay away from.  Too many variables unaccounted for.
quote
mattdew send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mattdew
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 218
Location:
#8
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:12:57 AM
thx for sharing....
quote
aloja27 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
aloja27
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 122
Location: Hawaii
#9
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:18:11 AM
got a random question for you... if you were given the miami heat -1000 vs kent state would u lay 5gs?
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#10
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:25:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by aloja27:

got a random question for you... if you were given the miami heat -1000 vs kent state would u lay 5gs?

5,000 to win 500

That's 1.66 units for me.  The mathematician in me says it's not worth the risk.


But if the Miami Heat were going to play Kent State in a serious game the Heat would win probably 100% of the time.  I would lay a lot more than 5,000 if I could get a -1000 moneyline on that game.  That's when you start asking yourself, what's my house worth?  Haha.
quote
BigUnit
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BigUnit
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 17967
Location: Nevada
#11
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:25:26 AM
Thanks for posting the info, I do look at it with all the other garbage I go through. 
quote
KingScorpio
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KingScorpio
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 18259
Location: Nevada
#12
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:37:33 AM
Favs 45-20 this week
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#13
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:44:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Favs 45-20 this week

I'm trying to take advantage of the heavy lines - I've bet three underdogs on the run line in a row (2-1).  The weekend seems like a good place for Vegas to clean up on some unfavorable dogs.  I will be looking out for them.  Let me know what dogs you're looking at.

quote
utfootball4 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
utfootball4
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 20033
Location: North Carolina
#14
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:45:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


5,000 to win 500

That's 1.66 units for me.  The mathematician in me says it's not worth the risk.


But if the Miami Heat were going to play Kent State in a serious game the Heat would win probably 100% of the time.  I would lay a lot more than 5,000 if I could get a -1000 moneyline on that game.  That's when you start asking yourself, what's my house worth?  Haha.

He must be talking about Brazil soccer match..
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#15
Posted: 7/28/2012 12:55:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:


He must be talking about Brazil soccer match..

I don't know garbage about football.  I can only imagine that in a game where less than 4 total goals are usually scored in a game, the probability of major upsets is far more likely than in a game like basketball that is so dominated by physicality.  
quote
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
si1ly
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 12061
Location: Florida
#16
Posted: 7/28/2012 1:19:23 AM

Lean:

LAD (-110)
quote
KingScorpio
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KingScorpio
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 18259
Location: Nevada
#17
Posted: 7/28/2012 1:26:37 AM
Clients will be happy with a lean on the FOX game of the week,but the only evidence is a cheap line on Zito and the home team.
quote
sicknesscity
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sicknesscity
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 1255
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 7/28/2012 2:09:06 AM
I like the Cubs today but your model apparently hates them.  It's interesting because Samardzija is ranked 52nd and Kelly ranked as 152nd.  The Cubs' hitting numbers are terrible.  There's no disputing that. 

However, Samardzija's FIP is 3.67 and his xFIP is 3.46.  Meanwhile, Kelly's FIP is 4.34 and his xFIP is 4.32.  So Samardzija's 4.57 ERA is due for improvement if I go by those numbers and Kelly's 2.75 ERA is due for some regression. 

Why does your model have the Cards winning this game 61.6% of the time?
quote
lQQkIwon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
lQQkIwon
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 24
Location:
#19
Posted: 7/28/2012 2:51:07 AM
quote
KingScorpio
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KingScorpio
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 18259
Location: Nevada
#20
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:00:28 AM
Wondering why everyone isn't on the Yankee killer ????
quote
doliver517 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
doliver517
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 2902
Location: Michigan
#21
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:00:55 AM

@KingScorpio-

I just want to tell you how cool I think you are....carry on.....

quote
VietBlonde send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
VietBlonde
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 681
Location: California
#22
Posted: 7/28/2012 3:14:57 AM

doliver517 said......

@KingScorpio-

I just want to tell you how cool I think you are....carry on.....

Totally agree with you doliver517!!!

quote
SJSharks99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SJSharks99
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 10379
Location: California
#23
Posted: 7/28/2012 4:05:18 AM
quote
keepitstrict send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
keepitstrict
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 11113
Location: District of
              Columbia
#24
Posted: 7/28/2012 7:23:29 AM
quote
Louis_IV
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Louis_IV
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 33734
Location: Ohio
#25
Posted: 7/28/2012 7:30:17 AM
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.