Reverse line movement - Day 1

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Reverse line movement - Day 1
RLandy22 PM RLandy22
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Posted: 7/26/2012 6:49:19 PM
Wow it's ironic how this is an experiement but the person running it seems to already know the results and the covers community also knows what will happen?!?! Everyone should chill and stop taking everything so personal, dont need anymore bad behind bloggers...

But on the subject I am subscribed to a website that tracks certain sportsbook's reverse line movements and shows how that book has performed in the past while making one of these moves, according to my info provided they had m/l reverse movements on Baltimore and KC. The totals are much more profitable apparently which is usually how I select my picks as there are 4 plays on totals including MIL UNDER TB OVER and CLE UNDER just my 2 cents I use sportsinsights.com pretty legit
RLandy22 PM RLandy22
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Posted: 7/26/2012 6:49:56 PM
7/26 12:13 P 909 Play on TB Over (9+100) LH 2 6 L -1.00 33%
7/26 9:58 A 906 Play on MIL Under (8-107) LH


  22%
7/26 5:48 A 909 Play on TB Over (9-125) LH 2 6 L -1.00 28%
7/26 12:15 A 909 Play on TB Over (9-113) LH 2 6 L -1.00 20%
7/25 10:34 P 914 Play on CLE Under (7.5-120)
RLandy22 PM RLandy22
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Posted: 7/26/2012 6:51:43 PM
the record for the sports book "pinnacle" who selected mil under is Pinnacle (133-98, 57%, +25.54 units)
and the record for the book that took cle under is
SBG (26-11, 70%, +12.23 units)

BOL to all you donkeys!!!
CalifDreamin PM CalifDreamin
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Posted: 7/26/2012 6:52:56 PM
The way you replied to the guys in this thread who disagreed with you was complete arrogance. First youre defending your little strategy and then when people start explaining why it wont then its "all in fun." Its like if it works youre gonna tell everyone how awesome you are and if it fails its just "no biggie." Pretty lame partner. I wont visit this thread anymore, its run it course but just think about how youve flip flopped already in just an hour about how great this system is when originally anyk.e who disagreed was an idiot
Posted using a mobile device.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/26/2012 6:58:32 PM
RLandy, thanks for the 2 cents, well minus the first paragraph. I'm not sure I'll make money or anything, just kind of feel 2 out of 3 will win, not sure which though. But this is an experiment... I don't see why everyone wants people to fail on this board, but they do.

It's cool though this is Covers the most immature sports betting forum on the internet. Hopefully tomorrow's thread will contain a lot less bullshit in it. I'm sure more picks too! Then maybe people can focus on hating on the picks and not the damn experiment. That's what I'd like... tell me why the darn these picks can't win guys and stop worrying about why I picked them.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/26/2012 7:05:39 PM
OMG, CalifDreaming, you are a friggin crybaby dude. What are you the forum protector? If some guy comes in talking garbage, should you just ignore them? Because it's either I ignore it completely, or I say some smartass comment back to them.

I didn't start the negativity, remember that bud. I wished people luck even if they are against me. If I come into someone's thread and don't like their picks, I try to give them a thumbs-up on the ones I do like. You are defending the 2 guys that annoyed me enough for me to say something back, yet not remembering the other 2 guys that said it didn't work I tried to be respectful to.

Good luck on your picks guys, I hope you all win, sounds like some of you need it more than I do.
lovethedough PM lovethedough
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Posted: 7/26/2012 7:11:26 PM

Good luck tonight Beckwith.

Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/26/2012 7:19:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

Good luck tonight Beckwith.

Thank you LTD. You too should you choose to play again. Nice W on Toronto.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/26/2012 10:27:30 PM
2-0 +1.78u to start. Come on Houston!
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/26/2012 10:58:21 PM
Almost got the RL on the Astros, but couldn't get there! 2-2 +0.36U with 1.52U on KC pending.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 12:15:12 AM
2-4  -1.16u

Counting KC as a loss, just don't see them coming back. There will be more plays tomorrow, and I expect a much better result than this.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 12:45:20 AM
Notes for today.
The #1 bet game of the day, 21,963 bets, Detroit/Cleveland, was the only winner of the three. The #2 public game today with Pitt/Houston came very close. The #3 public game today NYM/AZ - looks like the public loses there. The second to last bet game of the day, KC/Sea, was not even friggin close.

Also note: Pitt says -165 open and -165 closing on PG. So, I guess I should do the games right before game-time so I can be as accurate as possible.

I will just keep this thread going for tomorrow I guess. I'm pretty sure all the bickering is over and I can just make the picks and relax now. Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 1:55:43 PM
Early pick:
STL/CHC U7.5 +100 1.16u to win 1.16u
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 7/27/2012 1:59:57 PM
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 4:06:51 PM
2-5 -2.32u. Really bad one there. Hard to hit any under with 6 HR's in 5 innings. Will have some more plays in a few hours.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 4:38:41 PM
Gotta put these in early, might miss some later but these ones seem like they will be plays no matter what.

COLO U10-105 1.05 to win 1
LAA U8-110 1.10 to win 1
COL ML-104 1.04 to win 1
TB ML +152 1 to win 1.52


That's it for today. Going disc golfing and getting drunk. As always, best of luck to all.
0-1 -1.16 today let's get some back!
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/27/2012 5:03:44 PM
1 more. ATL +102 1 to win 1.02

I don't even know what Philly opened at, but if they opened at -120 then this fits the system. Either way, I'll fade them today.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 1:24:09 AM
I had a write-up then hit backspace. We're 5-7 -1.34U or some garbage. 3-3 -0.18 today.

Anyway, tomorrow, we're looking for totals. I'm not playing sides unless I feel they can win. I think the totals have a better shot. Hopefully this helps. GL to all tomorrow.
4headies PM 4headies
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Posted: 7/28/2012 2:31:53 AM
Toronto UNDER 9.5 should be right up your alley.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 4:43:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 4headies:

Toronto UNDER 9.5 should be right up your alley.


We shall see. If it remains at 75% on the over and it drops to 9, then it's a play.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 12:52:06 PM
STL/CHC U7.5-107 1.07 to win 1. No movement but the number is holding firm at 7.5 with 86% on the over, so we'll play it. Back later with more.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 4:02:40 PM
6-7 -0.34u with that Cubs under winner.

Adding:
NYY U9-120 1.20 to win 1
opened juiced to the over, now it's juiced to the under with the public on the over.
PHI U8+100 1 to win 1
opened at 8.5 and dropped with 55% on the over.
COLO U9.5+100 1 to win 1
this is not RLM but there is RLM on Colorado and if Colorado +1.5 hits I'd like to think the under does with Cueto on the mound.

Might add Mil, Min, or SD later. Looking to see where the lines go. As always, BOL whatever you decide to play.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 4:42:47 PM
Adding: MIL+126 1 to win 1.26

That's it for today guys. Trying to be selective and pick only the best games. 5 picks total today, 1-0 so far with 4 pending.

Other leans were Oak U9-115, KC+102, CLE O9-115, SD+121, Colo+1.5-110. I know KC already started, but these are just leans so they don't count toward the record.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/28/2012 5:18:14 PM
Sorry guys, adding SD+121 1 to win 1.21. Kind of a gut play but SD has shown a lot more heart than Miami in the past month. Lots of action on MIA, not sure why, but the line has held steady, so we'll take a shot with 2 small dogs and 3 totals and hope for at least a 3-2 finish.
Beckwith PM Beckwith
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Posted: 7/29/2012 4:16:23 AM
2-4 today -2.20 7-11 -3.54 overall. Picked the wrong games obviously. Some leans came in and actual  plays did not. It happens.
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