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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Reverse line movement - Day 1
Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Beckwith
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#1
Posted: 7/26/2012 3:53:35 PM
Monitoring this myself so figured I'd start a thread.

Plays for today: HOUSTON+1.5-110, CLEVELAND+1.5-110, and KC+100.

Yesterday there was a ton of action on this and it went pretty well. Hopefully tomorrow we'll get some totals as I think they could be more profitable. Good luck to everyone else on Pitt, Detroit, and Seattle, since the public is all over them.
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KktdocT
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#2
Posted: 7/26/2012 3:54:20 PM
GL, mate.
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LetEMride send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 7/26/2012 3:55:45 PM
making money solely on line movements is a hardly ever a good idea.

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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#4
Posted: 7/26/2012 4:20:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LetEMride:

making money solely on line movements is a hardly ever a good idea.

Wow... you come into my thread to say something this stupid? Maybe you should proof-read your posts before clicking submit.
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Trader4 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#5
Posted: 7/26/2012 4:58:06 PM
Good luck Beck, tried it for years.......diligently. Came to the same conclusion as Rider above, not good. Too many false moves and games played with the line by the powers that be. Don't even look at the line now until after I've isolated teams that I think have a situational advantage. But wish you the best and hope you crack their code!
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#6
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:19:38 PM
We'll see how today goes guys. Honestly, I wish there was more plays because I hate putting money on Houston, no matter how many runs I'm getting. I do think KC/CLE looks good. I'm just hoping for a 2-1 day. With this system I'll be going against tons of huge favorites so there will be plenty of chances to pick up + money.

I will do this for a little while, if it doesn't turn a profit after a couple weeks then I'll stop posting. I think part of it will be my game selections...

You guys might not believe there is any information to be found when looking at what other people are betting, but I kind of think there is. If you had actual $ amounts of what people bet, you'd be able to use that to your advantage. The problem is, we only have access to percentages with no amounts. So 72% could be on an under, with 51% of actual money coming in on the over. Those types of things I can't control - and I'll probably lose those ones. I'm just hoping to hit 53% with some underdogs thrown in there for a nice return.
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#7
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:23:11 PM
BTW -
CLE +1.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
HOU+1.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
KC ML+100 1u to win 1u


Just wanted to clarify that before the games start. Will keep a running record for 2 weeks or a month or however long this experiment lasts.
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crazy1464
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#8
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:26:56 PM
another bet against the public guy! unreal!
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#9
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:45:29 PM
Crazy, you have got to be the biggest dumbass on the board. You said Cleveland looked too easy, when the public is all over Detroit, then come into my thread to talk garbage about betting against the public. Dude, are you seriously this bipolar?
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#10
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:48:52 PM
I'm not betting against the public either, I'm betting against the public when the line movement tells me to. Get it right. If I was just betting against the public I'd be betting a lot more than 3 games.
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slowphenomenon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#11
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:52:20 PM
Beckwith best of luck, but I've always kept track of line moves that you're referring too, but this week alone favorites are sweeping the board, you need to not play all line moves and select smartly, I got butt raped doing what you're trying to do, moves will 6 out of 10 times be on Colorado, San diego, Houston, Kansas city, Seattle, every night these will come up and disappoint you with some of the worst baseball you've ever seen
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#12
Posted: 7/26/2012 5:54:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Beckwith:

Wow... you come into my thread to say something this stupid? Maybe you should proof-read your posts before clicking submit.


surely you understood what he was trying to say right ? never understood the need to correct other folks grammar and spelling on the net when the message is clear enough.
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slowphenomenon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:03:02 PM
The best line move play of the day was Toronto, you gotta back teams you think can score
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#14
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:04:20 PM
I'm not here to decipher stupidity.
It's hard to not insult some of these people.
I'm only human. I didn't ask for the 10 cents from the peanut gallery, but I got it anyway.
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#15
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:08:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

The best line move play of the day was Toronto, you gotta back teams you think can score


Didn't fit the criteria. Majority was on Toronto RL and Oakland ML. Plus, I slept in. But, these were the only 3 games that fit the criteria anyway.
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#16
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:09:13 PM
Just trying to converse about this style of betting, you posted it on a public forum the point is to talk about it 
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#17
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:11:15 PM
I just feel you gotta find who you think can win and not worry about who everybody else is betting on, and with this system I wouldn't lose juice 
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j-walk
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#18
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:12:35 PM
Beckwith, the attitude you're running into here is because this has been tried over and over again.  Not only in baseball but basketball and football as well.  Reverse line movement based on public percentages has just been proven over and over again to not work.  I've tried it in all 3 sports and I always seem to get hot in the beginning then get my behind kicked eventually.  If you're gonna try it out my advice, bet very lightly.
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#19
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:21:17 PM
I don't give a garbage what anyone says, I like these plays.

Don't worry J-walk, I'm just a recreational bettor, I have fun either way and it's worth it for the entertainment value. I've been sucked into a garbage load of traps in the past so at worst this experiment might teach me which games to just stay away. I would rather learn to play on line movements, dogs, and against the public, because that's a much better way of betting than picking these square bear bets some of these other guys bet. Just have to be selective.
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#20
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:24:59 PM
Jwalk said it best, this has been tried over and over and over. If it was this simple we'd all be doing it. Plus, you even admit youre not even getting the proper percentages and stuff to truly even see if it does work. Good luck but this is old news, doesnt work

Now come back and tell me what an idiot i am and how bad behind you are. Youre huge attitude over anyone disagreeing with you just confirms you'll fail at this
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:25:52 PM
Lol now its all just in fun and he "good" regardless if it fails. God the idiots on this site
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#22
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:35:21 PM
I always play who I think is going to win. I like Pittsburgh -1, Indians +1 (this one scares me either its really close or Detroit smacks Mcallister around) , Seattle. Let's do this. 
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#23
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:39:18 PM
CalifDreamin, you're down 30+ units in 90 plays so maybe you're a little bitter. Pretty sure that's it.

Anyway, since this is all in good fun,

ADDING

CLE ML +156 .5u to win .78u
HOU ML +155 .5u to win .775u
KC ML -102 .51u to win .5u


I think 2/3 win SU.

So CalifDreamin since this is for fun how about a little side wager? I'm open to suggestions. BTW, notice how I didn't call you an idiot once? In fact, I only called the 2 dumbest posters idiots thusfar, and they had it coming to be honest.

Hell, one would think you'd have it coming when I came into your thread with something positive and you came into mine with something negative.
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#24
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:41:55 PM
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Beckwith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#25
Posted: 7/26/2012 6:44:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Denson7:

I always play who I think is going to win. I like Pittsburgh -1, Indians +1 (this one scares me either its really close or Detroit smacks Mcallister around) , Seattle. Let's do this. 


Best of luck to you. Hopefully we both win.
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