First off, let’s talk about the pitching matchup in this evening’s game. Starting for the Rays will be right hander Jeremy Hellickson. Jeremy has had a fairly decent season thus far despite the subpar record. He is 4-6 with a 3.55ERA in 17 starts this season. Against Baltimore, he has gone 4-2 with 2.36ERA lifetime. In his two games against the O’s this season, he has pitched very well despite not getting the win either game. Combined, he struck out a total of 14 batters in those two games while giving up only 7 hits and 2 walks. Unfortunately for him, the Rays simply couldn’t provide enough runs. The lack of run support has been a constant theme with Tampa over the last little while and it’s a big reason why Hellickson hasn’t had a win since May 16 against Boston. Granted, he himself hasn’t been overly sharp either going 0-6 with a 4.29ERA since that win. That being said, when your team provides you with 3.22 runs per game on average in all of your starts, there is only so much a pitcher can do. In his 9 starts since his last win, the under has hit 6 times.
Opposing Hellickson will be rookie Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has pitched admirably for the Orioles in his rookie season. He sports a very respectable 3.80ERA and he is 8-5 on the season. He’s been averaging roughly 6-7 innings per game and is coming off back to back games of throwing 108 pitches. He has yet to go a full game this season, and thus has been relying on the bullpen to carry on in every start. In his only start against the Rays, Chen was roughed up pretty good. He gave up 5 runs in the first inning alone. He also had his highest walk total in any game this season with 4. Despite the rough start, he settled in nicely and pitched 5.2 without allowing another run. In Baltimore, he is 4-2 with 3.32ERA holding opponents to a .233AVG.
On the hitting front, Tampa Bay has had their ups and downs this season like any team. They have been in a funk since the All-Star break averaging 3.3 runs per game. Against lefties, they haven’t won a game since interleague play ended going 0-5 since playing Philly way back. They have one of the worst team batting averages in the league at .232. A few bright spots however have been Jeff Keppinger and Jose Lobaton. Both have done very well against lefties this season. Keppinger has put up some god like numbers, .446AVG, 1.055 OPS and only 4SO in 56 AB against lefties this year. Lobaton has been equally impressive with a .353AVG and .801 OPS. That being said, injuries have really limited the Rays. They don’t have many options and the 1-2 of Upton and Pena have a combined .176AVG against lefties this season. They struck out a combined 5 times against Chen the last time they faced him. It’s hard to get momentum and score runs when guys don’t get on base. I imagine we a little shuffle in the order tonight by Joe Maddon.
With the Orioles, they’ve been a little better on the offensive side, but not by much. They among the bottom in batting average as a team and don’t seem to fair as well against right handers. They are a team that relies heavily on the long ball to win games. Adam Jones is batting .316 lifetime against Jeremy Hellickson and has a couple of homers to go along with it. Wilson Betemit has also had some luck against Hellickson before as he sports .333 average vs him. Unfortunately for Baltimore, the happiness ends there as the other top players have struggled against JH in the past. Thome, .000AVG, Markakis, .190AVG.
Given all of these statistics, I think we see a very tightly contested, low scoring game tonight. At least I hope. I don't know.
Tampa @ Baltimore - UNDER 8.5