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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Score in 1st = YES Profit Thread
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#126
Posted: 8/29/2012 8:51:13 AM
I make these same plays, but choose the opposite result. I look for teams that will not score. Easy to trend, especially day games, Ace starting pitchers, etc. I know you stated it before but is there a specific stat or trend that you follow?

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#127
Posted: 8/29/2012 9:30:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmpkcp44:

I think betting on first inning scoring is like betting on the length of the National Anthem at the Superbowl...it's a shot in the dark. Why not play first 5 innings over on these same games?


Good question with a very simple answer.  Because he has found a prop that is very very favorable towards the YES bet and a book that has very juicy lines, giving him a fantastic edge with tons of overlays.  If he went from the 1st inning over to the 5 inning or full game over, he would lose that inherent edge.

Yes, it's a shot in the dark, but with plus odds.  If you got +105 on heads on a coin flip, would you take it every time or pass on it because it's just a shot in the dark?  Well, on the YES, he's getting anywhere from +105 to +115 every single time on literally a 50/50 play.  Yet very few people on this site or any other realize that most books are offering this on the YES each and every day.

GL
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#128
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:51:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by totalguy:



Good question with a very simple answer.  Because he has found a prop that is very very favorable towards the YES bet and a book that has very juicy lines, giving him a fantastic edge with tons of overlays.  If he went from the 1st inning over to the 5 inning or full game over, he would lose that inherent edge.

Yes, it's a shot in the dark, but with plus odds.  If you got +105 on heads on a coin flip, would you take it every time or pass on it because it's just a shot in the dark?  Well, on the YES, he's getting anywhere from +105 to +115 every single time on literally a 50/50 play.  Yet very few people on this site or any other realize that most books are offering this on the YES each and every day.

GL


Exactly, as some sharper and more observant people have noticed. I am basically pillaging the very square lines that sportsbook.ag throws at me for this prop. There is a ton of value when compared to the Pinnacle line on every single prop I play in this thread. 

When this situation comes up, which is about 4 times a day on a full 15 game schedule, where I can literally arbitrage by betting yes on my book and no on pinnacle, I play about 90-95% of these opportunities. If I was not living in the U.S. I would just be betting the maximum and taking free money.
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#129
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:59:07 AM
8/29:
Cardinals / Pirates +100
Braves / Padres +125
Brewers / Cubs +120


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#130
Posted: 8/29/2012 8:19:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

bink a  6-1 +6.1u day

59-56 +10.20u thread ytd


2-1 +1.20

61-58 + 11.40
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#131
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:30:15 PM
8/30:
Cardinals / Nationals +110
Diamondbacks / Dodgers +140
Red Sox / Angels +115
Mets / Phillies +110
Giants / Astros +110
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#132
Posted: 8/30/2012 10:24:50 PM
8/30 4-1 +3.45u

65-59 + 14.85u

heater time.
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#133
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:37:19 PM
8/31:
Diamondbacks / Dodgers +120
Mets / Marlins +120
Phillies / Braves +125
Cardinals / Nationals +125


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#134
Posted: 8/31/2012 12:41:41 PM
Bol tonight....
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#135
Posted: 9/1/2012 11:40:06 AM
8/31 1-3 -1.75u

66-62 +13.10u ytd
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#136
Posted: 9/1/2012 11:51:29 AM
9/1:
Phillies / Braves +130
Diamondbacks / Dodgers +120
Mets / Marlins +115
Pirates / Brewers +110
Giants / Cubs +105
Cardinals / Nationals +115

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#137
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:06:45 AM
9/1 was 3-3 +.50u

69-65 +13.60u ytd
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#138
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:18:22 PM
9/2:
Reds / Astros +115
Angels / Mariners +130
Mets / Marlins +110
Pirates / Brewers +120

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#139
Posted: 9/4/2012 1:02:06 PM
2-2 +.30 on 9/2

ytd is 71-67 +13.90u


9/4:
Yankees / Rays +110
Diamondbacks / Giants +130
Red Sox / Mariners +130
Rockies / Braves +110
Phillies / Reds +110


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#140
Posted: 9/4/2012 2:20:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:



Exactly, as some sharper and more observant people have noticed. I am basically pillaging the very square lines that sportsbook.ag throws at me for this prop. There is a ton of value when compared to the Pinnacle line on every single prop I play in this thread. 

When this situation comes up, which is about 4 times a day on a full 15 game schedule, where I can literally arbitrage by betting yes on my book and no on pinnacle, I play about 90-95% of these opportunities. If I was not living in the U.S. I would just be betting the maximum and taking free money.

I've always wondered if something like that occurred often enough to be profitable. Would you please be so kind to point this out to me when it happens? Seems way to good to be true but who knows! I'm a member on both sites so would be interested to see if this actually works
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#141
Posted: 9/4/2012 2:24:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

2-2 +.30 on 9/2

ytd is 71-67 +13.90u


9/4:
Yankees / Rays +110
Diamondbacks / Giants +130
Red Sox / Mariners +130
Rockies / Braves +110
Phillies / Reds +110


Also where we're u getting the +130s on both those games? I'm seeing 105 and 110 on the two sites. It didn't really drop over 20 cents over night did it?
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#142
Posted: 9/4/2012 5:18:33 PM
sportsbook.ag has both at +130 still as of me posting this.
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#143
Posted: 9/4/2012 6:52:30 PM
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#144
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:12:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

sportsbook.ag has both at +130 still as of me posting this.

Are we looking at runs in the first inning? Btsecause if yes then I definitely did not see that. The line was +105 YES runs in the 1st inning. We are looking at sportsbook.com right?
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#145
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:41:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The-OG-GunClapa:


Are we looking at runs in the first inning? Btsecause if yes then I definitely did not see that. The line was +105 YES runs in the 1st inning. We are looking at sportsbook.com right?

www.sportsbook.ag ...yellow and black interface...run in first = yes prop for both were +130 when i posted this morning and when i reposted, i don't understand why you'd be seeing different lines.

does anyone else play these with me that saw the lines for these on sportsbook.ag today?

3-2 +1.70u tonight

74-69 +15.60u ytd




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#146
Posted: 9/5/2012 12:33:53 PM
9/5:
Diamondbacks / Giants +140
Cubs / Nationals +120
Rockies / Braves +110
Mets / Cardinals +125
Phillies / Reds +115
Padres / Dodgers +115

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#147
Posted: 9/5/2012 11:37:25 PM
9/5: 3-3 +.75u

77-72 +16.35u
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#148
Posted: 9/7/2012 12:22:00 PM
9/7:
Dodgers / Giants +130
Braves / Mets +120
Rockies / Phillies +120
Astros / Reds +105
Marlins / Nationals +120
Brewers / Cardinals +120

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#149
Posted: 9/8/2012 1:37:30 PM
9/7 4-2 +2.65u

81-74 +19.00u ytd
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#150
Posted: 9/8/2012 1:46:55 PM
9/8:
Dodgers / Giants +130
Diamondbacks / Padres +140
Cubs / Pirates +125
Rockies / Phillies +115
Astros / Reds +115
Brewers / Cardinals +115
A's / Mariners +140
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