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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Score in 1st = YES Profit Thread
Riceboi send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#76
Posted: 8/16/2012 12:44:23 PM
total guy how often do they hit? you would only need to hit at 66% to be profitable with high juice lines. have you tracked it? im talking about only 1 or 2 plays per day max
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#77
Posted: 8/16/2012 12:55:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

total guy how often do they hit? you would only need to hit at 66% to be profitable with high juice lines. have you tracked it? im talking about only 1 or 2 plays per day max


Only 66%?  Seriously?  That is a recipe for disaster.  You are looking at this all the wrong way.  The books gouge you with those high juice lines, making you think that you have some kind of safe bet when it is far from the truth.  What you have instead is a ridiculously bad negative expectation bet.

I've got a database of the last 4000+ games.  The sample sizes are small on the tail ends of the distribution but here they are:

14 games at O/U of 5.5, YES=71.4%
75 games at O/U of 6, YES=48.0%
83 games at O/U of 10.5, YES=60.2%
32 games at O/U of 11, YES=68.8%

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#78
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:08:20 PM
thanks for that info totalguy. running a labby line in something that hits 60% plus will be profitable even at higher juice.
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#79
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:12:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

thanks for that info totalguy. running a labby line in something that hits 60% plus will be profitable even at higher juice.


Just make sure you're betting +EV plays each time.  Get ready for some serious variance swings as you'll be hanging out in the tails of the distribution.

GL
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#80
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:13:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

thanks for that info totalguy. running a labby line in something that hits 60% plus will be profitable even at higher juice.

We all wish it were that easy. 

Be careful here, labbying just makes it worse when bad variance hits....doesn't increase your value. I've seen people get crushed using this logic, but best of luck whatever you decide.

I wish labbying bets (regardless of juice it seems you're saying) that would hit at 60%+ longrun were profitable so we could all live rich and easy. I would never want anyone else to lose, but what you describe seems scary.

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#81
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:55:01 PM
you guys realize that if a labby system goes down then straight bets will crash and burn as well right? however you guys arent betting the same props as me but just saying if we were.
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#82
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:56:50 PM
dont think for a minute that straight bets are better than a labby line (in the right situations of course)
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#83
Posted: 8/16/2012 1:59:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

you guys realize that if a labby system goes down then straight bets will crash and burn as well right? however you guys arent betting the same props as me but just saying if we were.


I'm not as concerned about your betting strategy as your choice of high juice wagers.  You're likely going to be betting one huge -EV play after another.  You'll be fighting a huge uphill battle from the start.

GL
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#84
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:00:10 PM
explain how you gain value by labbying, and i'll explain why you're wrong after.

i just want to see your thought process so i can be concise. you gain zero $ value/expectation by labbying. 

and explain the right situations? one's where you lay tons of juice? your logic seems to be saying that you will just labby huge favorites and never run bad enough to lose several in a row. therefore you will never be down? 
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#85
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:10:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

explain how you gain value by labbying, and i'll explain why you're wrong after.

i just want to see your thought process so i can be concise. you gain zero $ value/expectation by labbying. 

and explain the right situations? one's where you lay tons of juice? your logic seems to be saying that you will just labby huge favorites and never run bad enough to lose several in a row. therefore you will never be down? 

just to clarify, expected value would increase with labby line betting if you found a situation where 'streaks' will be shorter/longer in the longrun than a normal distribution. 

these are tough to find, as the market usually recognizes and adjusts to streaks with logical explanations very quickly. if you believe you can find something like this with regards to first inning scoring or lack thereof, more power to you and good luck. in this situation a labby line strategy would be better than straight betting.


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#86
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:22:27 PM
totalguy gave me some workable situations above. you guys can say it fails unless you have tried it or tracked it as totalguy has. according to his data above a labby line would work. i would be willing to bet there hasnt been more than 3 losses in a row on those 60% plus records.
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#87
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:30:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

totalguy gave me some workable situations above. you guys can say it fails unless you have tried it or tracked it as totalguy has. according to his data above a labby line would work. i would be willing to bet there hasnt been more than 3 losses in a row on those 60% plus records.

what in God's name.....it's math....unless the streak ending/continuing is correlated beyond what a normal distribution would show, then you are gaining zero value by labbying. That is a fact.

If the odds of something hitting is 60%, then the odds of it failing 3x in a row is 6.4%. These are just facts, and you have given me no reason to believe that the outcome of the first inning props in question are correlated in any way.

The distribution of wins and losses does not change because you are laying more juice, you just have more wins than losses and pay more when you lose. The fact that there are less losing streaks because you are winning a higher percentage of the time does not earn you any more money, because you are paying exponentially more on your losing streaks due to the labby line strategy.

Best of luck on whatever you choose to bet on man. I'll be rootin for you. Maybe we could all learn something if you started a thread and tracked the plays.
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#88
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:32:05 PM
If you have no concrete, definable reason why the consecutive events are correlated, you may as well call it 'chasing' instead of 'labby-lining'
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#89
Posted: 8/16/2012 2:35:15 PM
The NO on 10.5s had a streak of 4 recently and a streak of 3 last season.  The NO on 11s had a streak of 3 earlier this season as well.  And that's with a relatively small sample size where you're looking at about 75 qualifying plays a season.

GL


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#90
Posted: 8/16/2012 3:08:58 PM
streaks of 3 and 4 is not bad at all. i would be thankful if i could find that every season for all sports. a labby line or chasers dream
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#91
Posted: 8/16/2012 3:21:40 PM
When you put 10.5s and 11s together, there was 1 streak of 5 earlier this year.  When you hit that inevitable streak of 5, a $100 a unit bettor betting an average line of -150 will be risking $10,425 on that 6th prop bet to chase down that original $100.  Have fun chasing one -EV bet after another.

GL
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#92
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:44:06 PM
35-38 +1.10u ytd
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#93
Posted: 8/17/2012 4:26:38 PM
8/17:
Dodgers / Braves +115
Cubs / Reds +105
Twins / Mariners +120
Phillies / Brewers +110
Pirates / Cardinals +105
Giants / Padres +140

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#94
Posted: 8/17/2012 10:24:43 PM
Ice cold. It'll turn around though.

37-42 -0.30u ytd
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#95
Posted: 8/18/2012 12:52:38 PM
8/18:
Pirates / Cardinals +110
Dodgers / Braves +110
Giants / Padres +120

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#96
Posted: 8/18/2012 1:09:48 PM
just keep hitting that plus juice hundo
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#97
Posted: 8/18/2012 8:51:51 PM
39-43 +0.90 ytd
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#98
Posted: 8/19/2012 12:21:40 PM
8/19:
Giants / Padres +130
Diamondbacks / Astros -115
Cubs / Reds +105
Dodgers / Braves +120
Marlins / Rockies -125
Twins / Mariners +120
Mets / Nationals +110

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#99
Posted: 8/20/2012 4:17:31 PM
3-4 -0.65 yesterday

42-47 +0.25u ytd
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#100
Posted: 8/20/2012 4:32:22 PM
8/20:
Rockies / Mets +125

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