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[MLB Betting] Topic: Score in 1st = YES Profit Thread |
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Riceboi |
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#76 Posted: 8/16/2012 12:44:23 PM |
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totalguy |
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#77 Posted: 8/16/2012 12:55:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
total guy how often do they hit? you would only need to hit at 66% to be profitable with high juice lines. have you tracked it? im talking about only 1 or 2 plays per day max
Only 66%? Seriously? That is a recipe for disaster. You are looking at this all the wrong way. The books gouge you with those high juice lines, making you think that you have some kind of safe bet when it is far from the truth. What you have instead is a ridiculously bad negative expectation bet.
I've got a database of the last 4000+ games. The sample sizes are small on the tail ends of the distribution but here they are:
14 games at O/U of 5.5, YES=71.4%
75 games at O/U of 6, YES=48.0%
83 games at O/U of 10.5, YES=60.2%
32 games at O/U of 11, YES=68.8%
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Riceboi |
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#78 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:08:20 PM |
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totalguy |
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#79 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:12:53 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
thanks for that info totalguy. running a labby line in something that hits 60% plus will be profitable even at higher juice.
Just make sure you're betting +EV plays each time. Get ready for some serious variance swings as you'll be hanging out in the tails of the distribution.
GL
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#80 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:13:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
thanks for that info totalguy. running a labby line in something that hits 60% plus will be profitable even at higher juice.
We all wish it were that easy.
Be careful here, labbying just makes it worse when bad variance hits....doesn't increase your value. I've seen people get crushed using this logic, but best of luck whatever you decide.
I wish labbying bets (regardless of juice it seems you're saying) that would hit at 60%+ longrun were profitable so we could all live rich and easy. I would never want anyone else to lose, but what you describe seems scary.
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Riceboi |
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#81 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:55:01 PM |
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Riceboi |
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#82 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:56:50 PM |
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totalguy |
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#83 Posted: 8/16/2012 1:59:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
you guys realize that if a labby system goes down then straight bets will crash and burn as well right? however you guys arent betting the same props as me but just saying if we were.
I'm not as concerned about your betting strategy as your choice of high juice wagers. You're likely going to be betting one huge -EV play after another. You'll be fighting a huge uphill battle from the start.
GL
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#84 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:00:10 PM
i just want to see your thought process so i can be concise. you gain zero $ value/expectation by labbying.
and explain the right situations? one's where you lay tons of juice? your logic seems to be saying that you will just labby huge favorites and never run bad enough to lose several in a row. therefore you will never be down? |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#85 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:10:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball: explain how you gain value by labbying, and i'll explain why you're wrong after.
i just want to see your thought process so i can be concise. you gain zero $ value/expectation by labbying.
and explain the right situations? one's where you lay tons of juice? your logic seems to be saying that you will just labby huge favorites and never run bad enough to lose several in a row. therefore you will never be down?
just to clarify, expected value would increase with labby line betting if you found a situation where 'streaks' will be shorter/longer in the longrun than a normal distribution.
these are tough to find, as the market usually recognizes and adjusts to streaks with logical explanations very quickly. if you believe you can find something like this with regards to first inning scoring or lack thereof, more power to you and good luck. in this situation a labby line strategy would be better than straight betting.
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Riceboi |
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#86 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:22:27 PM |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#87 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:30:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:
totalguy gave me some workable situations above. you guys can say it fails unless you have tried it or tracked it as totalguy has. according to his data above a labby line would work. i would be willing to bet there hasnt been more than 3 losses in a row on those 60% plus records.
what in God's name.....it's math....unless the streak ending/continuing is correlated beyond what a normal distribution would show, then you are gaining zero value by labbying. That is a fact.
If the odds of something hitting is 60%, then the odds of it failing 3x in a row is 6.4%. These are just facts, and you have given me no reason to believe that the outcome of the first inning props in question are correlated in any way.
The distribution of wins and losses does not change because you are laying more juice, you just have more wins than losses and pay more when you lose. The fact that there are less losing streaks because you are winning a higher percentage of the time does not earn you any more money, because you are paying exponentially more on your losing streaks due to the labby line strategy.
Best of luck on whatever you choose to bet on man. I'll be rootin for you. Maybe we could all learn something if you started a thread and tracked the plays. |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#88 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:32:05 PM |
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totalguy |
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#89 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:35:15 PM
GL
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Riceboi |
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#90 Posted: 8/16/2012 3:08:58 PM |
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totalguy |
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#91 Posted: 8/16/2012 3:21:40 PM
GL
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#92 Posted: 8/16/2012 11:44:06 PM |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#93 Posted: 8/17/2012 4:26:38 PM Dodgers / Braves +115 Cubs / Reds +105 Twins / Mariners +120 Phillies / Brewers +110 Pirates / Cardinals +105 Giants / Padres +140
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#94 Posted: 8/17/2012 10:24:43 PM
37-42 -0.30u ytd |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#95 Posted: 8/18/2012 12:52:38 PM Pirates / Cardinals +110 Dodgers / Braves +110 Giants / Padres +120
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#96 Posted: 8/18/2012 1:09:48 PM |
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#97 Posted: 8/18/2012 8:51:51 PM |
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Donnie_Baseball |
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#98 Posted: 8/19/2012 12:21:40 PM Giants / Padres +130 Diamondbacks / Astros -115 Cubs / Reds +105 Dodgers / Braves +120 Marlins / Rockies -125 Twins / Mariners +120 Mets / Nationals +110
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#99 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:17:31 PM
42-47 +0.25u ytd |
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#100 Posted: 8/20/2012 4:32:22 PM Rockies / Mets +125
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