7/6 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 7/6 - MLB Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 9:25:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 904HotPlay:

Silly I don't see la angels vs Baltimore in your model...

They hadn't announced Baltimore's pitcher when I ran the sheets last night.  I'l add this one in a bit when I find the time.
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 7/6/2012 9:57:13 AM

Looks good...

I know you were asking about the NYY @ BOS game. Early on here in the day but looks like you pegged that one. Movement at Pinny on the Yanks as they are now favored. I still expect the Red Sox to be favored by first pitch but we'll see.

I've been posting my projected lines for the next day's games if you are interested. I just posted tomorrow's card. Check it out, hopefully can give you a good gauge of what to roughly expect on the next day's card and help plan your potential plays.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 10:15:10 AM
Greatly appreciate the work you do tone.  Your threads are very informative.  I already check them every day.


hoopsvader PM hoopsvader
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Posted: 7/6/2012 10:21:24 AM
Any leans today
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 7/6/2012 10:23:45 AM
gl
Gordon Gekko PM Gordon Gekko
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Posted: 7/6/2012 10:27:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Looks good...

I know you were asking about the NYY @ BOS game. Early on here in the day but looks like you pegged that one. Movement at Pinny on the Yanks as they are now favored. I still expect the Red Sox to be favored by first pitch but we'll see.

I've been posting my projected lines for the next day's games if you are interested. I just posted tomorrow's card. Check it out, hopefully can give you a good gauge of what to roughly expect on the next day's card and help plan your potential plays.

Gwarner does a good job on projected lines, but interested with what you have come up with.  Don't see Sox coming back and becoming favorites with this AAA lineup at the moment. 

Lar1212 PM Lar1212
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Posted: 7/6/2012 11:27:29 AM
Really surprised you aren't interested in that LAD/ARI over 7.5 with your projection around 9.
AlohaJoe PM AlohaJoe
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Posted: 7/6/2012 12:54:19 PM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 1:14:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lar1212:

Really surprised you aren't interested in that LAD/ARI over 7.5 with your projection around 9.

I'm not sure I can bring myself to bet an over with the way the Dodgers have been swinging the bat lately.
Jeeves PM Jeeves
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Posted: 7/6/2012 1:20:34 PM
GL today Si1ly

Cheers
aloja27 PM aloja27
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Posted: 7/6/2012 1:41:27 PM
How do u feel about washington and Pitt, I know based on your system the lines are right where they should be but with strasburg for the nats and zito
Posted using a mobile device.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 7/6/2012 3:18:40 PM
thanks for all your work silly 

any thoughts on Cubs/Mets UNDER?  I'm leaning 1st 5 under
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 3:20:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

thanks for all your work silly 

any thoughts on Cubs/Mets UNDER?  I'm leaning 1st 5 under

I like it.
MakeitRain84 PM MakeitRain84
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Posted: 7/6/2012 3:22:38 PM
hey s1ly your model shows the braves/phillies at about 8 runs and the line is at 9 and i did some reading and research and cant help but feel the over is going to hit am i sick in the head?
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 7/6/2012 3:24:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Gwarner does a good job on projected lines, but interested with what you have come up with.  Don't see Sox coming back and becoming favorites with this AAA lineup at the moment. 

Have to say I'm really, really surprised at this line movement. I really don't think Beckett should be a home dog here.

Though this line movement really reminds me of the Yanks-Rays game on Tuesday. I was on Shields +105, the line kept moving towards the Yanks throughout the day and got as high as around -115, and then it plummeted around 10 minutes before first pitch and Shields ended up closing -110.

Could be sharp money just nudging the number to where they want it before they lay the wood on the Red Sox... or it could close with the Yanks as the faves. Who the hell knows, this stuff is so hard to predict.

Gamebred PM Gamebred
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Posted: 7/6/2012 3:36:32 PM
Silly, love your posts and was wondering why you quote .20c market lines instead of dime lines? 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 4:02:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gamebred:

Silly, love your posts and was wondering why you quote .20c market lines instead of dime lines? 

Two reasons.


One, the wider margin of 20 cent lines help build in a factor of error into my model.

Two, since I typically post the night before 20 cent lines allow for some line movement and can be used as a comparative measure for a wider audience of people depending on what they have available in Vegas, offshore or with a local.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 7/6/2012 4:14:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Have to say I'm really, really surprised at this line movement. I really don't think Beckett should be a home dog here.

Though this line movement really reminds me of the Yanks-Rays game on Tuesday. I was on Shields +105, the line kept moving towards the Yanks throughout the day and got as high as around -115, and then it plummeted around 10 minutes before first pitch and Shields ended up closing -110.

Could be sharp money just nudging the number to where they want it before they lay the wood on the Red Sox... or it could close with the Yanks as the faves. Who the hell knows, this stuff is so hard to predict.

In my Humble opinion, Kuroda has been better than Beckett lately.  Kuroda has an xFIP under 4 in his last 6 games.  Both Yanks bats and pen have been much better than the Sox the last couple weeks.  Yankees have been playing head and shoulders above the Sox lately.  No way the Sox should be favored tonight.  
JEFFTHEHAT PM JEFFTHEHAT
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Posted: 7/6/2012 4:20:58 PM
Sagarin has Beckett ranked 8 and Kuroda as 16 just food for thought
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 5:50:38 PM
St. Louis and Arizona are both on my radar tonight as well.
Gamebred PM Gamebred
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Posted: 7/6/2012 6:11:10 PM
Thanks for getting back to me Silly.  Good luck.
fullabs11 PM fullabs11
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Posted: 7/6/2012 6:36:42 PM

As always, good stuff on your thread. I like Nats tonight. As well as detroit, Chisox, and Brewers. Haven't really got a gauge on any totals yet.

Shu1er PM Shu1er
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Posted: 7/6/2012 6:49:09 PM
Detroit is bad play tonight. 
Sanchez is garbage but Smyly is not better. 
Royals hot batters will destroy him early. 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 6:50:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fullabs11:

As always, good stuff on your thread. I like Nats tonight. As well as detroit, Chisox, and Brewers. Haven't really got a gauge on any totals yet.


Card looks pretty good.  Good luck.

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 7/6/2012 6:52:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Shu1er:

Detroit is bad play tonight. 
Sanchez is garbage but Smyly is not better. 
Royals hot batters will destroy him early. 

What hot batters?  They rank #18 offensively over the last 7 games and #23 in power over that same span.
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