First we need to get yesterday’s business out of the way. I want to thank ELGALLO for coming back and saying “nice day” as he often does and I don’t want to seem unappreciative. Now, for old friend and conspirator backdoor_cover, just what he is expecting
“I TOLD YOU SO”
My only remaining question for him is, did you also pull the trigger on Toronto?
Those two items being tended to let’s move on with today.
5 Inning POD
Padres +145 (Cashner / Bauer)
Folks are going to back the better team at home regardless of the risk and continue to see some sort of value in that. I guess the perception is “they have to bounce back at home”, but what really justifies that or gives the Diamondbacks a 60.8% probability of winning so that you can make 64.5 cents on the dollar of risk? Is there some reason the Padres can’t scrape up a run or two versus Trevor Bauer or some reason the D-Backs absolutely must hit Andrew Cashner? I watched every pitch of Bauers debut in Atlanta and I can tell you it was not pretty. First time through the order was OK but he didn’t scare the lefty hitters at all and they tagged him. Second time through the order almost everyone got to him and it was a quick exit with mediocre results. What also bothered me was he never at any point looked confident, like he had earned his way there and deserved the job. A good many folks were eager to see this debut and wanted him brought up almost from day one, but it don’t work like that folks, and it is possible he needs more time at AAA. Cashner has settled into the role of starter very well and been very effective for the Padres. Time to face the truth here in the basin of the sun and the truth is the D-Backs are a very average team sending a rookie to the hill in the role of stopper after three straight losses. That does not sound like a 61% probability to me.
Full Game Plays
Cubs +171 (Volstad / Jurrjens)
Does the public really hate the Cubs that much? Do the Cubs absolutely, positively have to revert to being themselves today? Why? Yeah, they have Volstad on the hill whom every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks he can fade until Doomsday, but face a fact. Being a major league pitcher is one of the toughest jobs in the world to get and you don’t hang around because you are someone’s favorite nephew. Any of them are capable of looking like Cy Young and beating you on any given day. And what are you attacking with? Just a slightly better offensive probability and a pitcher still in rehab mode. That does not sound like a 64.2% win probability to me.
Padres +136 (Cashner / Bauer)
Notice the line drop from 5 to 9? Bettors are already telling you they don’t have the kind of faith in Bauer and the D-Backs the line is demanding.
Athletics +115 (Lester / Colon)
At the risk of being crucified I will repeat what I said yesterday. All things considered the Red Sox are NOT the better team. Lester is supposed to be the rock in the staff now but the team is just 7-9 when he takes the ball and has a negative for-against scoring stat, versus Colon, who at 7-8 also has a negative for-against, but at much lower scores due to the East Coast-West Coast thing I hit on yesterday. Can you really believe the Red Sox bring East Coast stats into a West Coast park? Then why are they averaging 2 runs per game on this trip and were shut out once at Seattle? It is a tossup, we take the positive odds.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
5 Inning YTD: 52-64-14, -804 9 Inning YTD: 85-82, +1,594 NET. +790 (+2.8% RoR)
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