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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 6-28 Analysis/Discussion
Gordon Gekko
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Gordon Gekko
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#1
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:15:40 PM

Arizona @ Atlanta

Line opened a bit high and maybe too much relevance put on Jurrjens recent start as Arizona is throwing a nice prospect whos had a good run in the minors with a high strikeout to walk percentage.  I did bite for the dog her at +117 as I see the line coming down..

 

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#2
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:31:27 PM

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

Looking at the over..Recent upgrade with Utley adds punch to a lineup that needs punch..Wind blowing out to right 11-15 mph..Kendrick and Burnett avg against both roughly .280 plus..Oddsmakers had soft opening at 7.5/8 and see it hitting 8.5 -125 by tomorrow. 

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#3
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:41:48 PM

How about this non sense..Played some parlays tonight in which, I know most are losers in the long run but saw some chance for large money with short term loss and this is what I have on the line:

2 Parlays 1 units a piece

Boston W, Over Cubs W, Milwaukee W, Miami (pending), San Diego (Pending)  $2147

Boston W, Milwauke W, Atlanta (pending), Wash (pending), Over Pitt W, San Diego (Pending) $3645

Both these Parlays will pay a good amount...Frigin San Diego..

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#4
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:44:48 PM
How about Cincy, they own Bumgarner but he a stellar home record.
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#5
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:48:17 PM
What are your thoughts on Detroit @ Tampa Bay opening line?
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Gordon Gekko
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#6
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:48:56 PM

Hoops,

That game is very interesting..Leaning Cincy as SF coming off an emotional series vs LA Dodgers and waiting to see what line does. 

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#7
Posted: 6/27/2012 9:52:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by si1ly:

What are your thoughts on Detroit @ Tampa Bay opening line?

Liking the under in this one..as Detroit showing lots of effort tonight at Texas and then traveling to TB..We've seen a huge drop off offensively with the Rays, think Market buys Detroit..

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#8
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:07:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Liking the under in this one..as Detroit showing lots of effort tonight at Texas and then traveling to TB..We've seen a huge drop off offensively with the Rays, think Market buys Detroit..


My model shows under (~6.5 predicted runs) and I lean that way anyways.

I like Detroit too, Shields follows a seasonal pattern of starting great and ending great but sucking in the middle.  He's had a much better than usual June and it's only a matter of time before he implodes.  Tampa Bay doesn't have an offense and Sherz has been dealing.  Debating whether I should buy in early or watch the line.
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#9
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:15:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


My model shows under (~6.5 predicted runs) and I lean that way anyways.

I like Detroit too, Shields follows a seasonal pattern of starting great and ending great but sucking in the middle.  He's had a much better than usual June and it's only a matter of time before he implodes.  Tampa Bay doesn't have an offense and Sherz has been dealing.  Debating whether I should buy in early or watch the line.

I cant see this one going up, maybe 1st 5 may be play for the under..Both bullpens being used extensively..hate to see it blow up a good total..with a sloppy ending..

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#10
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:20:19 PM
Zona line is going up +119 at 5dimes now
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#11
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:28:17 PM
Angels are rolling at the moment.  Can roll with either them or the over first 5.  Usually I like to go with someone like a T. Bauer with making his first start of the season and has been dealing in the minors.  I like what I saw out of the Dbacks late in tonight's game which might translate into tomorrow nights game.
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#12
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:29:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hoopsvader:

Zona line is going up +119 at 5dimes now

Yes, Braves backers and recent uptick and unknown pitcher to most have seen some buyback..Atlanta has been undervalued last couple games but I'm not sure they've factored Drew's value and CF back..

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#13
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:30:57 PM
Are you locking in any games tonight
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#14
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:33:03 PM

NY Mets @ LA Dodgers

As expected the Dodgers line comes out lower than expected after being shut out from division rival.  Granted the Mets exploded but now playing across country, granted only from Chicago to LA, but still some travel, time differential.  They throw Young against an almost desperate Dodgers team and arguably one of the best pitchers in the NL right now.   Capuano trading at a discount, Mets havent been to strong as of late, and face a lefty who's on his game.  If Mets were throwing a lefty I wouldn't buy but they've had ok success vs Righties (besides recent series).  Young is not in the category of what they just faced. 

LARGE PLAY:  DODGERS -132

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#15
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:35:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hoopsvader:

Are you locking in any games tonight

LOCKED IN DODGERS

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Gordon Gekko
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#16
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:36:40 PM

Bought a small share of Arizona at +117, waiting to fill position if market is going to buy Jurrjens..

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#17
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:36:54 PM
GG, I think Ethier is out just an FYI.
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Gordon Gekko
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#18
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:38:29 PM

Bought Oakland at +205 for small buy..

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#19
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:39:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

Looking at the over..Recent upgrade with Utley adds punch to a lineup that needs punch..Wind blowing out to right 11-15 mph..Kendrick and Burnett avg against both roughly .280 plus..Oddsmakers had soft opening at 7.5/8 and see it hitting 8.5 -125 by tomorrow. 



Was the first bet I put on my likely-to-bet list. Umpire Brian Runge is making me think twice, though.
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#20
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:40:16 PM
That under might be a better play in the dodgers game????
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Gordon Gekko
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#21
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:43:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bradyisgreat:

GG, I think Ethier is out just an FYI.

Yes, he's out, this is more of a play in disparity of starting pitching and travel..Lines will be flying down and maybe should have waited but look for Dodgers lines to get decimated by oddsmakers.  I think this is one game they should win.

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#22
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:44:04 PM
The dodgers are in such a funk right now making them a large bet isn't smart don't you think????
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Gordon Gekko
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#23
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:45:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hotshots23:

That under might be a better play in the dodgers game????

Yes, I agree..under down to 120 juice, may hit 6.5 sometime tomorrow.

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#24
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:46:13 PM
Betting them is fine but, making them a double or triple size of your normal bet.  I'm not sure I get that IMO.
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Gordon Gekko
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#25
Posted: 6/27/2012 10:51:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by hotshots23:

The dodgers are in such a funk right now making them a large bet isn't smart don't you think????

Hot, this is the time that you do make the Large Play, I know that sounds so crazy, but I'm all about what the market can't see.  Everyone knows that LA D are so called down and out, just like Miami tonight, and what happens a nice come from behind victory.  I'm also looking for an upgrade or uptick in Arizona for value and Philadelphia.  Hopefully, the oddsmakers are slow with Philadelphia and AZ.  Cleveland is in downtick and what I try and find is what teams opened up earlier in the year with a better team and how much openers/odds have moved and if there is an edge. 

Granted, I like playing teams who are motivated, on an uptick, and have a optimal lineup, with a bullpen who's available.  It's hard to find..I try and beat the NVL and most importantly pick a winner. 

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