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Originally Posted by SteveA2009:

My thoughts on the game:

   1) First of all, I think there is a public assumption that St Louis is a better team than KC that is built in to all the lines these teams play.   But since their 20-11 start, the Cardinals are 16-24.   Since their 3-14 start, the Royals are 27-23.   So for 40 or 50 games, the Royals have been the BETTER team of the two.   One huge difference is the bullpen, where KC has a 2.99 ERA and St Louis is over 4, despite the Cardinals playing most of their game in a league where pitchers hit. You are jiggling numbers... Comparing KC's L-50 to STL's L-40 for wins and losses... ALSO the Cards are a +58 run differential to KC's -33 despite STL not having a DH for EVERY game so we can flip that ERA stat also into a STL has better bats stat.

   2) At this point, if you still want to back St Louis, you ahve to ask yourself, has Wainwright been good enough and consistent enough to take as a road favorite.   My standards for taking a road favorite are pretty darn high.   It's my least favorite type of bet to make.  OK... So you're a member of the club also who thinks the same as everone else... including me.

   3) These two pitchers met Sunday and KC won 5-3 (it was 2-1 St Louis when the starting pitchers left, and the superior bullpen prevailed in the close game).   And that game was in St Louis.

I watched that game... Odds are KC fails in 9 of 10 similar situations.

All in all, I wouldn't touch St Louis today.   THey're on the road, not necessarily the better team, with the weaker bullpen, and while they do have the better starting pitcher, this is 2012 Adam Wainwright with an ERA of 4.46, not the dominant pre-Tommy John surgery pitcher.   Cap him accordingly, until he actually returns to form. STL is 19-19 on the road and KC is 11-21 at home.

And when it bumped to 10 +100...I tried to get that as a safety...but too late.  Looks like this one is 7-2.