CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +12.30
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Solid 3-2 night yesterday picking up a unit, but can't help but feel it should have been 4-1 and a +2.5 pickup. That was an absolute heartbreaker for those of us on the Rockies... maybe one of my toughest losses of the season. Lost with the Mariners as well, but ended up cashing with the Royals, Indians, and A's.
I have three plays on today's short card. These are all BetCris opening numbers wagered through BetOnline and posted in my Thursday thread.
Thursday 6/21
951 Colorado Rockies +170
954 Detroit Tigers +110
959 Minnesota Twins +155
Simply put this Rockies team is a mess... but just how Joe Blanton shouldn't have been laying -160 yesterday, Vance Worley shouldn't be laying -180. That type of chalk is reserved for aces, and Worley most definitely is not. How does Francis go from closing at +140 @ Detroit against Casey Crosby to +170 @ Philly against Worley? Worley is the better pitcher, but the Tigers have a better offense than the Phillies. Maybe it's just me but this feels way too high.
In Kyle Lohse's last start he closed -165 at home against Vin Mazzaro and the Royals... if that game were in KC that would have been a -125 line. So how do we get a -120 opener for Lohse against a better pitcher and better team? Admittedly there isn't much data on Turner, but he is one of Detroit's top prospects and I would venture to say he's better than a guy like Mazzaro. These offenses are equal, and the pitching edge does go to the Cardinals, but I don't think it's 35 cent pitching edge as the opening line suggested. This one feels more like a -105/-105 game. I think there is quite a bit of value with the +110 home dog here.
James McDonald has been great this year... I know because I'm a Pirates fan. But that putrid offense holds back the power rankings of all Pirates pitchers. That offense shouldn't be laying -165 against anyone. I really don't think you would see the Pirates laying -125 road chalk if this game were in Minnesota as the opening line suggests. There's also a common opponent theme here. Hendriks last start he closed -110 at home against Fiers and the Brewers. Just a couple starts ago McDonald closed -105 on the road against Fiers and the Brewers. That line would have been -135 at home, so I've got a 25 cent difference between McDonald and Hendriks, making -150/+140 a more appropriate line for tonight's game. At +155 the Twins were worth a shot.
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +12.30
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Solid 3-2 night yesterday picking up a unit, but can't help but feel it should have been 4-1 and a +2.5 pickup. That was an absolute heartbreaker for those of us on the Rockies... maybe one of my toughest losses of the season. Lost with the Mariners as well, but ended up cashing with the Royals, Indians, and A's.
I have three plays on today's short card. These are all BetCris opening numbers wagered through BetOnline and posted in my Thursday thread.
Thursday 6/21
951 Colorado Rockies +170
954 Detroit Tigers +110
959 Minnesota Twins +155
Simply put this Rockies team is a mess... but just how Joe Blanton shouldn't have been laying -160 yesterday, Vance Worley shouldn't be laying -180. That type of chalk is reserved for aces, and Worley most definitely is not. How does Francis go from closing at +140 @ Detroit against Casey Crosby to +170 @ Philly against Worley? Worley is the better pitcher, but the Tigers have a better offense than the Phillies. Maybe it's just me but this feels way too high.
In Kyle Lohse's last start he closed -165 at home against Vin Mazzaro and the Royals... if that game were in KC that would have been a -125 line. So how do we get a -120 opener for Lohse against a better pitcher and better team? Admittedly there isn't much data on Turner, but he is one of Detroit's top prospects and I would venture to say he's better than a guy like Mazzaro. These offenses are equal, and the pitching edge does go to the Cardinals, but I don't think it's 35 cent pitching edge as the opening line suggested. This one feels more like a -105/-105 game. I think there is quite a bit of value with the +110 home dog here.
James McDonald has been great this year... I know because I'm a Pirates fan. But that putrid offense holds back the power rankings of all Pirates pitchers. That offense shouldn't be laying -165 against anyone. I really don't think you would see the Pirates laying -125 road chalk if this game were in Minnesota as the opening line suggests. There's also a common opponent theme here. Hendriks last start he closed -110 at home against Fiers and the Brewers. Just a couple starts ago McDonald closed -105 on the road against Fiers and the Brewers. That line would have been -135 at home, so I've got a 25 cent difference between McDonald and Hendriks, making -150/+140 a more appropriate line for tonight's game. At +155 the Twins were worth a shot.
My line was exactly what you said,-105 on both,so nice call on line movement. Turner #s in 3A not really that good,2-1 3.56 era 46 innings 27 Ks and quite a few walks,we will see if he learned anything from last year,where he pitch bad in 3 starts in majors.
My line was exactly what you said,-105 on both,so nice call on line movement. Turner #s in 3A not really that good,2-1 3.56 era 46 innings 27 Ks and quite a few walks,we will see if he learned anything from last year,where he pitch bad in 3 starts in majors.
Kaka, once Pinnacle opens BetOnline adjusts their odds to match Pinnacle... and they pretty much move in conjunction with Pinnacle so the odds are usually the same. They do not shade their lines towards underdogs as some other square books do (such as Sports Interaction or Bodog).
That is why I make all my plays before Pinnacle opens. They set the market, so I have a limited window after BetOnline and BetCris open their numbers and before Pinnacle opens theirs.
Kaka, once Pinnacle opens BetOnline adjusts their odds to match Pinnacle... and they pretty much move in conjunction with Pinnacle so the odds are usually the same. They do not shade their lines towards underdogs as some other square books do (such as Sports Interaction or Bodog).
That is why I make all my plays before Pinnacle opens. They set the market, so I have a limited window after BetOnline and BetCris open their numbers and before Pinnacle opens theirs.
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