Monday's mush

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Monday's mush
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/10/2012 11:37:23 PM
yesterday 3-1 +2.20u
MLB 60
-41 59.4% 
+20.10u

Bankroll management is above all, the most important.  The best sports handicapper in the world will bust without it guaranteed.

I thought most of us here would already know that, but...  on to today's small card.  I haven't looked at any stats, line movement or capped the games in any way, just first glance thoughts looking at the card.

Yanks vs Braves

Seriously PK 'em?  Yankees are hot, Braves are hot.  But PK 'em? Nova vs. Delgado?  Seriously? Proceed with caution here.

Nats vs. Jays

Has to be value on the Nats.. right?.  They just swept Boston in Fenway. They are rolling right now and may actually be for real this year.

Red Sox vs. Marlins

Now that should be pick 'em imo.  Lean Boston though

LAA vs LAD

Not sure who Garrett Richards even is.  Should be a good series. 


Pick(s) coming later... if any but Im sure I'll have to play something












utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/10/2012 11:39:05 PM
Yanks/jays/bos/laa+over
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:02:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

Yanks/jays/bos/laa+over
Def like the Yanks, but the opening line concerns me

Jays did just go off with 12 unanswered against the Braves.  Morrow will either shut down the Nats completely or blow up in 1 of the 1st 3 innings.  
No clue on the LA series yet 

utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:06:34 AM
In this order:

1: Jay they are hott and nats suck in tor.

2: Bos

3: Laa

4: Yanks - hard time trusting nova dova
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:08:38 AM
Marlins are slumping BAD.  They can't draw more than 10 fans to the games (which I can't figure out, I love the team they've thrown together).   Anyway, Boston is a good road team and should win behind Beckett.  Need to look into how Jo Jo has been hurling lately
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:11:26 AM

-Im going to stay away from the Yanks game because of the weird line and the over night travel to new state.

-Washington is the best pick on the board IMO tomorrow. They are that big of dogs and they are rolling right now. Every hitter in thier line up is clicking and Jackson isnt bad at all. Morrow is a great pitcher, but he can have his off days if his fastball isnt working. Really like Nats to keep the ball rolling here with another curly W.

-I do not like Beckett at all he is a straight punk and I would never back him on the road. I see Miami breaking out of the slump with this win. Boston just got swept and now they have to travel to Miami. I just dont see them comming with the firepower to win a road game tomorrow. I would really like this play besides the fact the Johnson has been fade material all year as well. Have to look into the game a lot more.

-I like the Angels, I dont care who the darn is pitching here. This team is on absolute fire. Trout gets on base no matter what, Hunter is being the x factor he really is and Pujols is back to normal. Then Trumbo is hitting bombs every game. They are confident and they are at home basically. I dont think the Dodgers line up will be able to put up enough runs to beat the surging Angels.

Let me know what you think....

 

utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:12:11 AM
laa over looks too easy...
switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:12:29 AM
wow...there goes the line in that jays game. nats just hit +150 at some shops...i think theres serious value at that price 

idk if the SNB game will stay close to a pick'em by gametime; might be a good time to buy sox...

5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:13:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

In this order:

1: Jay they are hott and nats suck in tor.


they may have used to suck in tor.  they prob haven't fared well in fenway either before last weekend
utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:21:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

they may have
used to suck in tor.  they prob haven't fared well in fenway either before last weekend

For me jays will be in my parlays...

Jackson different pitcher on the road.. Jackson has made 13 starts against Toronto and allowed five or more runs in each of the last three with the most recent matchup on May 28, 2011. 

The Nationals are 9-21 over their last 30 games in Toronto.
utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:22:19 AM
I can see people taking wash esp how they played at boston.
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:24:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

laa over looks too easy...
know anything about Garrett?
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:24:56 AM
love the input guys 
utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:29:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

know anything about Garrett?

Not saying much - he did strike out 8 last week vs seattle in his first start...   If laa hit like they did last week all should be well - with the way both teams are hitting I don't understand the O/u....
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:31:40 AM
@ EO

I completely agree on the Angels, I played against them yesterday and paid for it.  They are getting alot of respect from linesmakers today too with ...garbage let me look,  Richards has pitched a spectacular 8 innings so far, hmmm.  Capuano's been really good lately too I think.  
utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:34:20 AM
Jays line up to 165 now...


Capuano, who has allowed four homers in his last six innings, will have to be particularly careful against Pujols, who has five straight two-hit games and is batting .545 (18 for 33) with five homers off the southpaw.
dixonbets PM dixonbets
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:37:24 AM
Beginning to like the Braves a lot
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:38:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

wow...there goes the line in that jays game. nats just hit +150 at some shops...i think theres serious value at that price 

idk if the SNB game will stay close to a pick'em by gametime; might be a good time to buy sox...

heavy public betting on the Jays... unreliable right now, but the 4 sites I use all showing high % coming in on Tor
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:39:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

 

Capuano, who has allowed four homers in his last six innings, will have to be particularly careful against Pujols, who has five straight two-hit games and is batting .545 (18 for 33) with five homers off the southpaw.
Leaning LA now
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:39:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Leaning LA now
Angels that is
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:40:33 AM

Line will fall back down. Sharps tend to bet on one side and then get a good line and pound the garbage out of it on the other side.

What sites do you use other than sportsinsights?

utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:40:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Leaning LA now

Laa+over 7....
5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:41:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dixonbets:

Beginning to like the Braves a lot
any particular reason?
EastOakland PM EastOakland
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:41:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by utfootball4:

Jays line up to 165 now...


Capuano, who has allowed four homers in his last six innings, will have to be particularly careful against Pujols, who has five straight two-hit games and is batting .545 (18 for 33) with five homers off the southpaw.

Capuano is going to have so much trouble getting through that line up tomorrow. I just dont see him doing it for 6 innings straight. Lets just use logic, this team is on fuckin fire.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 6/11/2012 12:42:01 AM
morrow will certainly be a big public play.
one look at his ERA will have a ton of bettors taking him even if the line is -200
and having a jays comeback W will get people too.


lets not forget the jays did not beat atlanta today; they beat livan hernandez 

where are you seeing +165?
i see +149 highest across the board
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