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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 3:10 EST - Los Angeles Angels @ Colorado Rockies
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:00:09 AM
'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P:  17-19-1 (48.4%)  -3.60u
'11-12 NHL-P:  1-1 (50.0%)  +0.10u

'11-12 MLB:  24-13-1 (64.8%)  +9.97u          


*** ARI (-137) PENDING ***

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#2
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:00:36 AM

3:10 EST - Colorado Rockies (-110)   

This will be my first 2-unit wager on the season I am 23-10 lifetime with 2u wagers posted on covers.  These are very rare bets and I only make them when I have both extreme value and high win probability in the same play.  Well I have both of that here with the Rockies.  This is the highest win probability my model has outputted since I started tracking results this season 3 weeks ago.  It projects the Rockies to win 78.6% of the time translating to a hypothetical line of -367!  Let's investigate where these numbers are coming from within the sabrmetrics.  For starters, Christian Freidrich is my #15 ranked starting pitcher.  Despite showing an ERA of 4.5, he's ranked in the top 30 in K/9 ; K/BB ; SIERA ; FIP ; xFIP.  These are all critical sabrmetric measuring sticks for a pitcher and he's showing elite numbers in all of them.  It's only a matter of time before his conventional numbers more accurately reflect his true talent, but until that happens there will be excellent value backing Freidrich.  Buy low, sell high mentality.  Well here is an excellent spot to back Freidrich and the Rockies.  He's pitching at home in the rubber match of a series that the Rockies have dropped the first two games.  Anti-sweep angle in play.  Freidrich also poses a offensive splits issue for the Angels who rank #24 offensively against lefties on the season.  Not only are there reasons to back Freidrich, there are also good reasons to fade Santana.  Ervin is already ranked poorly in my power rankings coming in at #163 out of 200.  He's faced a very easy schedule to date, and in fact only three of his twelve starts have been against an offense in the top 10 in the MLB.  In those starts he's gone 19 IP ; 15 H ; 13 ER ( 6.2 ERA) ; 5 HR.  Those stats are not encouraging for a guy going into the most hitter friendly ballpark in the majors against an offense ranked #4 on the season against right handers and #3 in total power.  Santana already has a problem keeping balls down in the zone and he suffers from a very high 23.2% HR/FB ratio.  He's now also struggling with control as hes issued 14 walks in his last 15 innings.  Not only is Santana bad, he's supported by a bullpen that ranks #27 in the majors (compare that to Colorado's #7 ranking).  I expect this game to be the straw that breaks Santana's back as the Rockies get after him early and often.  Colorado wins by 3+.
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#3
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:03:25 AM
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#4
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:06:02 AM
You can find the link to all of my game breakdown sheets in this covers thread.
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#5
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:47:25 AM
'atta boy  -  nice to see you on this one si1ly.


I stated after Santana's last loss, I'll be fading him this entire month of June.


I have a feeling he'll be on his 5ER+ streak he's so consistent with once summer hits.
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#6
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:49:30 AM
This will be a Large Play [6U/plus] for me tomorrow  -  but I am going to wait to see what the line does...


It's currently @ -107 @ my shop.    
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#7
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:49:36 AM
I'm betting he gives up 6 ER over 4 innings before getting pulled Gil.
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#8
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:55:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

This will be a Large Play [6U/plus] for me tomorrow  -  but I am going to wait to see what the line does...


It's currently @ -107 @ my shop.    

Not a bad idea.  It could go either way.  LAA and Santana are certainly more public names than COL and Freidrich.  Might see plus money tomorrow.  I see so much value I'm not going to mess around.  Taking it at -110 seems unfair already,

Good luck!
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#9
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:56:30 AM
Two of my good friends. 

Gilly the Kid and Si1ly,


Hope all is well with both of you my friends and good luck tomorrow.

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#10
Posted: 6/10/2012 12:57:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

Two of my good friends. 

Gilly the Kid and Si1ly,


Hope all is well with both of you my friends and good luck tomorrow.


L to the J.    
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#11
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:09:31 AM
10:10 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks (-137)  

I made a mistake transcribing my record from my afternoon thread.  I was 1-1-1 on the day and after my 5-0 yesterday I'm now:


'11-12 
MLB:  25-12-1 (67.6%)  +10.97u       
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#12
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:11:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Not a bad idea.  It could go either way.  LAA and Santana are certainly more public names than COL and Freidrich.  Might see plus money tomorrow.  I see so much value I'm not going to mess around.  Taking it at -110 seems unfair already,

Good luck!


I just threw a couple [U's] on @ -107


I am interested to see where it's @ when I wake up tomorrow morning  -  wonder how many Santana backers there will be when knowing the Rockies are 6-32 on Sundays dating back to last year... I know I was a big time fade train rider.  But I checked on the Angels too, and they are 2-7 this year on Sundays.


And one of my favorite plays I use will be in play tomorrow too  -  Top Tier (#1 through #10) Offense AVOIDING a sweep.


The Rockies rank in The Top 10 in all greater offensive statistics:

RUNS  - 4th in MLB
AVG  -  10th in MLB
OBP  -  10th in MLB
SLG  -  5th in MLB
OPS  -  5th in MLB
RISP/RUNS  -  4th in MLB
RISP/AVG  -  3rd in MLB
AB per HR  -  9th in MLB
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#13
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:14:40 AM
Great stuff.  Thanks for sharing uncle Gil.   
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#14
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:15:09 AM
Nice. friggin. Run.  



 silly guy
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#15
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:24:48 AM
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#16
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:29:50 AM
Like the play..let's get it


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#17
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:31:37 AM
Great run Silly! 

Noticed on your breakdowns you left off three games...
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#18
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:38:51 AM
Curious on why no lean on the LAD? It seems that your sheets indicate that. With your expected ML over -300, did your 23-10 games fall into this rare scenario?
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#19
Posted: 6/10/2012 1:58:30 AM
What do you think of Colorado Team Total?

Obviously I'd lean towards the over, but you think that playing them to win is a healthier wager?

I just took a quick look at Santana...his pitching has digressed a lot this season. Giving up more runs and striking less guys out.

I'll probably be big on Colorado tomorrow. Need to make back my Belmont Stakes and Paq-man disaster....
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#20
Posted: 6/10/2012 8:20:52 AM
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#21
Posted: 6/10/2012 8:48:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyemtlaw:

Curious on why no lean on the LAD? It seems that your sheets indicate that. With your expected ML over -300, did your 23-10 games fall into this rare scenario?


Some of them yes.  Others just fell into different situational and mathematical angles I like.

I didn't finish my sheets last night, I left the three games off the board that featured pitchers making their first start of the season.  I also only briefly glanced at them to write my leans, I may have missed some games.  Dodgers look to be on the right side of the value, I just wish they were swinging the bats better.
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#22
Posted: 6/10/2012 8:51:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CoverLane:

What do you think of Colorado Team Total?

Obviously I'd lean towards the over, but you think that playing them to win is a healthier wager?

I just took a quick look at Santana...his pitching has digressed a lot this season. Giving up more runs and striking less guys out.

I'll probably be big on Colorado tomorrow. Need to make back my Belmont Stakes and Paq-man disaster....

I think Colorado gets 6+ tomorrow so in theory they'll cash the team total.  However, that's a lot of runs to predict and there's definitely more value betting Colorado on the pick'em moneyline than it is to take them team total over 5.5.  It's a lot to ask for a team to get 6.  If you're looking for a juicy bet, the run line looks very good to me.
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#23
Posted: 6/10/2012 9:13:05 AM

According to your write-up and analysis, the COL -1.5 +170 would be worth it, even at home. Yes?

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#24
Posted: 6/10/2012 9:16:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lar1212:

According to your write-up and analysis, the COL -1.5 +170 would be worth it, even at home. Yes?


Yeah, I think even that number has value.  -1 isn't a bad idea at +135ish either.
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#25
Posted: 6/10/2012 9:18:16 AM
Cool, thanks for your help.
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