Derrrty19 
depbmoc
NastyNate9
I need days like you had yesterday, Nate. Undefeated day, impressive!
Most days I don't have time for write-ups, but today I did, so I took the time. Bullpen evaluations below are based solely on ERA.
Pirates vs. Mets- The Pirates have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB, the Mets have the worst bullpen in the league. Ten of Mets' last eleven road games went over the total. That bullpen is terrible. The Mets are 14th best at hitting lefties, the Pirates are 23rd. The Mets are the 23rd best hitting team the last 7 days, the Pirates are dead last. Bedard has been much better at PNC this year, posting a 1.80 ERA. Santana has been much worse away from NYC, posting a 4.73 ERA. This is a pitcher's park (18th in Park factor for hitting). Neither lineup hits the other pitcher particularly well. Going to stay away from the sides and go for the short total.
The pick:
Mets / Pirates 1st 5 Inn U3.5 -125 .625 / .5
Cubs vs. 'Stros- Houston has the 7th best bullpen in MLB, the Cubs stink (25th best). Both pitchers have been great lately, as Norris has given up 1 ER in the last 19 IP, and Garza has given up 3 ER in the last 19.2. Norris is 2-0, 2.36 in four home starts. Garza is 1-0, 2.45 in his last four starts. Existing Cubs hitters in a limited sample have hit Bud at a .302 average, and the 'Stros have hit Garza for .160. Garza is much worse away from Wrigley, with a 3.71 ERA. Bud is much better at home, with a 2.03 ERA. The last 7 days the Cubs are 15th in hitting, and the 'Stros are 26th. Under is 10-2-1 in Houston's last thirteen games. I think a lot of this evens out and will stay away from the sides here as well. However, I like the under for the 1st 5. No way do I let the pens get involved in this one.
The pick:
Cubs / 'Stros 1st 5 inn U3.5 -120 .6 / .5
Braves vs. Reds- Minor is 0-2, 11.76 in his last four starts. Leake is 0-5, 7.41 in seven starts this season. Both pitchers are terrible no matter where they pitch. The Reds bullpen is 4th in the league, the while the Braves are sitting at 18th. The Reds are 28th in the league at hitting lefties. The Bravos are 6th in the league at hitting righties. The last 7 days, Cinci is 16th in hitting, Atlanta 17th. The Great American Ballpark is 3rd in the league park factor for HR and 12th for runs. Four of last six Cincinnati games went over the total.
The picks:
Braves 1st 5 ML -103 1.03 / 1
Braves / Reds O9 -105 1.05 / 1
Oakland vs. Angels- JWilliams is 3-0, 2.05 in his last four starts. Milone is 3-0, 0.78 in his three home starts. The A's bullpen is 5th in the league, the Angels' 21st. The Angels are 21st in the league at hitting lefties, and Oakland is 28th at hitting righties. Under is 13-5 in Angels' last eighteen road games. The last 7 days, the Angels are hitting 25th best, while Oakland is hitting 29th best. I like what I'm seeing, I like the full number and I like the plus odds.
The pick:
****HAMMER Play**** Angels / A's U7 +105 2 / 2.1
Royals vs. Yanks- The last time these two pitchers faced off, it was in KC. The Royals won that game 5-1 based on the strenght of Paulino's pitching (4 hits in 6 IP, no runs, 2 BB, 6K). Royals lost four of their last five games. Bronx lost five of their last six games. The last 7 days the Royals are 12th best in hitting, and the Yanks are 28th. Yankee stadium is 11th in HR factor, yet only 19th in runs. The Yanks are hitting .255 off of Paulino, while the Royals are hitting .302 off of Kuroda. Kuroda is much better at home, and Paulino much worse away. Still, I think there is good value in the plus odds here. Also, the Yanks have gone U4.5 runs in 5 out of the last 6 games.
The picks:
Royals ML +139 1 / 1.39
Yanks TT U4.5 Even 1 / 1 *Chase the Red*
BOL to all today!! 
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