5 Inning YTD: 18-26-5, -695.87
9 Inning YTD: 16-12, +847.89
Dodgers F5 -155, FG -160 (Kershaw / Pomeranz)
Face it. This line is well over 2 bucks in L.A. I don’t know what good Coors Field is
supposed to do the Rockies since they can’t
hit lefties anyway. The first eight they faced went 6.5 innings per man and
surrendered only 1.4 earned runs, a whopping 2.30 offensive era per 9. That was
an average of eight average guys, so what are they going to do with Kershaw?
61.5% chance of success versus a -160 line? Yeah, I think so, more like 82% imho.
Diamondbacks F5 +110, FG+111 (Saunders / Jackson)
You can slice, dice, chop, puree and blend Saunders and
Jackson all day and pretty much come up with the same value of effectiveness. If
traded for each other there would be no cash or other players involved. But, Jackson needs the backing
of an offense that has produced only two 5 inning wins in 5 tries and allows
lefty starters to go almost 8 innings while surrendering 1.2 earned runs. The
D-backs have beaten 4 straight righties, allowing them to go a little over 6
innings per start but putting up 3.3 earned runs in the process. That little
offensive efficiency thing I do (proprietary, don’t ask) rates the Nationals at
5.4% and the D-backs at 14.8%, both versus an MLB average of 11.9%. If someone
can make a case for the Nationals I’m listening.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
5 Inning YTD: 18-26-5, -695.87
9 Inning YTD: 16-12, +847.89
Dodgers F5 -155, FG -160 (Kershaw / Pomeranz)
Face it. This line is well over 2 bucks in L.A. I don’t know what good Coors Field is
supposed to do the Rockies since they can’t
hit lefties anyway. The first eight they faced went 6.5 innings per man and
surrendered only 1.4 earned runs, a whopping 2.30 offensive era per 9. That was
an average of eight average guys, so what are they going to do with Kershaw?
61.5% chance of success versus a -160 line? Yeah, I think so, more like 82% imho.
Diamondbacks F5 +110, FG+111 (Saunders / Jackson)
You can slice, dice, chop, puree and blend Saunders and
Jackson all day and pretty much come up with the same value of effectiveness. If
traded for each other there would be no cash or other players involved. But, Jackson needs the backing
of an offense that has produced only two 5 inning wins in 5 tries and allows
lefty starters to go almost 8 innings while surrendering 1.2 earned runs. The
D-backs have beaten 4 straight righties, allowing them to go a little over 6
innings per start but putting up 3.3 earned runs in the process. That little
offensive efficiency thing I do (proprietary, don’t ask) rates the Nationals at
5.4% and the D-backs at 14.8%, both versus an MLB average of 11.9%. If someone
can make a case for the Nationals I’m listening.
BOL
All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at Best Available American Online Book as I post
17-16-3 (F5 innings)
9-4 (9 innings)
26-20-3 (YTD)
ASTROS (-150) (F5 innings) - I am not usually one to bet on a game where one of the teams has not seen the opposing pitcher, but this one looks good to me. Schwinden's bad ERA might be misleading because it was at Colorado, where a lot of pitchers have problems. Wandy has owned the Mets the last 2 years, allowing only 2 runs in 14 innings.
Dodgers/Rockies (-120) (Under 5) (F5 innings) - Another game in which one pitcher has yet to face the opposing team, but playing the total here. Kershaw has definately not been dominant against the Rockies in the past, but playing a hunch here. LAD have played 3 DAY road games this year. They have been shut out twice F5 innings, and scored 4 in the other. All have been vs LHP. Colorado has played 4 DAY home games, and have yet to score a F5 inning run, going 0-4 F5 innings. Three of those games were vs LHP.
D-BACKS (+105) (F5) - I like the pitching matchup here. The Nationals are batting .199 vs LHP this year, D-Backs .252 vs RHP. The Nats have scored only 17 F5 inning runs in 11 home games, scoring 1 run against the only LHP they have faced at home this year, Wandy Rodriquez. Zona has scored 34 F5 inning runs in 11 road games, going 8-1-2 F5 innings. Zona has scored 15 runs F5 in the three DAY road games they have played.
GIANTS (-125) (9 innings) - Marlins batting .187 vs LHP, Giants .261 vs RHP. Miami has only scored 15 F5 inning runs in 12 road games thus far, but are still 5-5-2 F5 innings in those games (go figure). SF has only scored 16 F5 inning runs in 10 home games, going 3-5-2. No chance taking the Giants in 5 innings here with no run support. I like the Giants BP to win this game.
17-16-3 (F5 innings)
9-4 (9 innings)
26-20-3 (YTD)
ASTROS (-150) (F5 innings) - I am not usually one to bet on a game where one of the teams has not seen the opposing pitcher, but this one looks good to me. Schwinden's bad ERA might be misleading because it was at Colorado, where a lot of pitchers have problems. Wandy has owned the Mets the last 2 years, allowing only 2 runs in 14 innings.
Dodgers/Rockies (-120) (Under 5) (F5 innings) - Another game in which one pitcher has yet to face the opposing team, but playing the total here. Kershaw has definately not been dominant against the Rockies in the past, but playing a hunch here. LAD have played 3 DAY road games this year. They have been shut out twice F5 innings, and scored 4 in the other. All have been vs LHP. Colorado has played 4 DAY home games, and have yet to score a F5 inning run, going 0-4 F5 innings. Three of those games were vs LHP.
D-BACKS (+105) (F5) - I like the pitching matchup here. The Nationals are batting .199 vs LHP this year, D-Backs .252 vs RHP. The Nats have scored only 17 F5 inning runs in 11 home games, scoring 1 run against the only LHP they have faced at home this year, Wandy Rodriquez. Zona has scored 34 F5 inning runs in 11 road games, going 8-1-2 F5 innings. Zona has scored 15 runs F5 in the three DAY road games they have played.
GIANTS (-125) (9 innings) - Marlins batting .187 vs LHP, Giants .261 vs RHP. Miami has only scored 15 F5 inning runs in 12 road games thus far, but are still 5-5-2 F5 innings in those games (go figure). SF has only scored 16 F5 inning runs in 10 home games, going 3-5-2. No chance taking the Giants in 5 innings here with no run support. I like the Giants BP to win this game.
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