Tuesday 05/01 MLB (YTD 37-32 +9.49)

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tuesday 05/01 MLB (YTD 37-32 +9.49)
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:21:35 PM

YTD 37-32 +9.49

CLV (Closing Line Value): +8.94

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +2.99

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

Split the card on Monday, cashing with the Rays and losing with the Jays.

We've reached the end of month one and I've already saved/won 3 units by betting at the open. Extrapolate that over the full six month season, and you're talking 18 units. That's 18 free wins just by betting early before the market moves. I can't stress enough how important it is to get the best of the number. The difference between +130 and +120 or even -105 and -110 may not seem like much, but believe me, it adds up quickly.

On to today's card. As always, these were posted in my Monday thread right after I bet them in the afternoon.

Tuesday 5/1

915 Miami Marlins +155

918 Toronto Blue Jays +150

927 Cleveland Indians +135

Looks like a possible misread on the Indians. That one has not moved like I thought and is currently sitting at +138 at Pinnacle. Regardless, I still like the play as I am buying Ubaldo Jimenez stock at a discount price.

Good luck today everybody.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:27:53 PM
BOL tonight Tone
utfootball4 PM utfootball4
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:38:00 PM
smart man taking mia- i do think texas wins again..
andreagassi6969 PM andreagassi6969
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:39:29 PM
SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:40:00 PM
I like that system. Nothing feels better than grabbing an odds and then seeing it plummet (well except of course winning on it) and it seems it works for you.

This morning (EU time) I grabbed Dodgers at +122 and now it's down to even. I could even make a surebet now if I wanted.

If you don't mind sharing, what do you primarily look at when finding lines you expect to move in your favor?

Good luck to you!
NastyNate9 PM NastyNate9
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Posted: 5/1/2012 1:53:15 PM
GL Tone, I bet the night before once last week and it worked out.  Have to start doing it more.  Giving away to many $.  
cubicman PM cubicman
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Posted: 5/1/2012 2:50:15 PM
xbaggypants PM xbaggypants
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Posted: 5/1/2012 2:54:06 PM
Good Luck Bro
Kirbs21 PM Kirbs21
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Posted: 5/1/2012 3:08:39 PM
bol today buddy 
I-Got-5-On-It PM I-Got-5-On-It
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Posted: 5/1/2012 3:09:16 PM
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 3:14:23 PM

 Thanks, fellas.

SirRagnar, I'll get back to you on that... in a rush right now but will detail a bit this afternoon.

Tomorrow's card after BetOnline posted their numbers:

Wednesday 5/2

Colorado Rockies +145

Chicago Cubs +155

Oakland Athletics +170

ac_bum PM ac_bum
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Posted: 5/1/2012 4:16:56 PM
 gl tone
3dogphil PM 3dogphil
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Posted: 5/1/2012 4:52:09 PM
SportsFreak69 PM SportsFreak69
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Posted: 5/1/2012 4:54:28 PM
Best of Luck 
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:25:12 PM

 AC, 3dog, Freak

Couple more additions after Cris posted their lines and numbers adjusted a bit. Final card for tomorrow:

Wednesday 5/2

Colorado Rockies +145

Chicago Cubs +155

Oakland Athletics +170

Texas Rangers EV

Cleveland Indians +130

Miami Marlins +120

tinfoils PM tinfoils
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:36:33 PM
Good luck Tone!
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:39:51 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SirRagnar:

I like that system. Nothing feels better than grabbing an odds and then seeing it plummet (well except of course winning on it) and it seems it works for you.

This morning (EU time) I grabbed Dodgers at +122 and now it's down to even. I could even make a surebet now if I wanted.

If you don't mind sharing, what do you primarily look at when finding lines you expect to move in your favor?

Good luck to you!

Really a lot of it is feel... I believe I have a very good handle of pitchers who get strong lines and those who get weak lines. Here's a good example from a week ago behind my thought process.

Matchup: SEA (Felix Hernandez) @ DET (Adam Wilk)

My Line: DET -115

BetOnline Opening Line: DET +110

Closing Line: DET -116

When I was trying to make this line, I looked at each pitcher's last game. Hernandez closed -145 at home against Josh Tomlin and the Indians. I tried to gauge a theoretical line for Wilk at home against the Indians. Basing off a -105/-105 line, you automatically give 15 cents to the home team. Wilk/Tigers is obviously superior to Tomlin/Indians, I estimated about 20 cents worth, so I lined it at -140.

Hernandez -145 at home against Tomlin, Wilk probably about -140 at home against Tomlin. A 5 cent difference in favor of Hernandez. Did the same thing for Wilk's prior start against Yu Darvish. He closed +120, I figured +115 is what Hernandez would close at home against Darvish so again a 5 cent difference.

Again, home team automatically starts -120/+110. Subtracting 5 cents for the difference between Hernandez and Wilk is how I got my -115/+105 line in favor of Detroit.

You can also just tell when a line is off. BetOnline's opening line of Seattle -120 meant if they were at home against Wilk and the Tigers they would be around -150 (15 cent shift towards neutral away from Comerica, plus another 15 cent shift towards Safeco away from neutral). -150 against the Tigers compared to -145 his previous start against the Indians, it just didn't add up.

The play ended up losing, but I had a 26 cent edge. Sorry for the long response, but this is essentially how I do things. Create my own line and bet when the opener is wildly different.

Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 10:26:26 PM

Tuesday 5/1

915 Miami Marlins +155

918 Toronto Blue Jays +150

927 Cleveland Indians +135

Jays cash but Indians not looking good... no clue what's up with Ubaldo but he's just not the same pitcher. Clearly need to make an adjustment on his Power Rating as I'm currently overvaluing him. Vegas has made the adjustment as evidenced by the very strong line for Chris Sale tonight.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/1/2012 10:50:04 PM
nice hit on the jays there bud 
you're the only person i remember seeing on them today

nice line value on the tribe tomorrow. Def worth a shot at that price
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 11:05:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

nice hit on the jays there bud 
you're the only person i remember seeing on them today

nice line value on the tribe tomorrow. Def worth a shot at that price

Thanks, bud... couldn't pass up a ridiculous +150 on the Jays.

My Indians bet looks good for tomorrow, but for some reason I think I made a couple mistakes. Just a gut feeling but think I made some bad reads and I'm going to have some bad numbers tomorrow. We'll see.

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 5/1/2012 11:12:00 PM
Marlins tomorrow scare me. they cant hit lefties at all, but zito isnt your normal pitcher; he could implode at any second...you prob got a great price there, i think alot of poeple like to fade zito

that texas price is probably the best you'll see too.
Pinny had +105 at one point but i think we'll see a ton of texas money tomorrow. and that will be Tex-109ish by first pitch

i got a little excited and grabbed jays-105. we'll prob see jays at plus money tomorrow


Im still loving this little system you're working
Tone10 PM Tone10
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Posted: 5/1/2012 11:46:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by switchwalk:

Marlins tomorrow scare me. they cant hit lefties at all, but zito isnt your normal pitcher; he could implode at any second...you prob got a great price there, i think alot of poeple like to fade zito

that texas price is probably the best you'll see too.
Pinny had +105 at one point but i think we'll see a ton of texas money tomorrow. and that will be Tex-109ish by first pitch

i got a little excited and grabbed jays-105. we'll prob see jays at plus money tomorrow


Im still loving this little system you're working

Thanks, switch... appreciate it.

Though it's not really a system. I do handicap, it's just I'm handicapping the line whereas most people handicap the matchup. I definitely have to set aside time to create my lines but I enjoy doing it. And I always try to post my plays as soon as I make them so if anyone wants to jump on they can before they move.

If you ever want the reasoning behind a specific play just ask... will be more than willing to share. We're all in this together.

SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/2/2012 1:45:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10:

Sorry for the long response, but this is essentially how I do things. Create my own line and bet when the opener is wildly different.


Thanks for taking time to explain. It sounds very similar in many ways to what I do - I put chance estimates on the games and if the odds are giving me value either way I'll take it. Dogs tend to give more value as people who do not care about value are betting heavily on favorites pushing the odds up for the dog.

For instance I had an analysis out yesterday on Dodgers@Rockies where I put the chance estimates at 50-50. The opening line for Dodgers was +122 so I grabbed that and got a nice betting value of 111%. The line dropped to around even later so it was probably not too far off and it also ended up being a 50-50 match.

Wherever I see value in the odds I'll play, of course also factoring in risk and money management.
A bit like yourself, although it seems you focus more on the line itself and where it is off, the idea behind seem similar - spotting the value, which is alpha-omega to a profit in the long run.
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