Posted: 5/1/2012 5:39:51 PM
Originally Posted by SirRagnar:
I like that system. Nothing feels better than grabbing an odds and then seeing it plummet (well except of course winning on it) and it seems it works for you.
This morning (EU time) I grabbed Dodgers at +122 and now it's down to even. I could even make a surebet now if I wanted.
If you don't mind sharing, what do you primarily look at when finding lines you expect to move in your favor?
Good luck to you!
Really a lot of it is feel... I believe I have a very good handle of pitchers who get strong lines and those who get weak lines. Here's a good example from a week ago behind my thought process.
Matchup: SEA (Felix Hernandez) @ DET (Adam Wilk)
My Line: DET -115
BetOnline Opening Line: DET +110
Closing Line: DET -116
When I was trying to make this line, I looked at each pitcher's last game. Hernandez closed -145 at home against Josh Tomlin and the Indians. I tried to gauge a theoretical line for Wilk at home against the Indians. Basing off a -105/-105 line, you automatically give 15 cents to the home team. Wilk/Tigers is obviously superior to Tomlin/Indians, I estimated about 20 cents worth, so I lined it at -140.
Hernandez -145 at home against Tomlin, Wilk probably about -140 at home against Tomlin. A 5 cent difference in favor of Hernandez. Did the same thing for Wilk's prior start against Yu Darvish. He closed +120, I figured +115 is what Hernandez would close at home against Darvish so again a 5 cent difference.
Again, home team automatically starts -120/+110. Subtracting 5 cents for the difference between Hernandez and Wilk is how I got my -115/+105 line in favor of Detroit.
You can also just tell when a line is off. BetOnline's opening line of Seattle -120 meant if they were at home against Wilk and the Tigers they would be around -150 (15 cent shift towards neutral away from Comerica, plus another 15 cent shift towards Safeco away from neutral). -150 against the Tigers compared to -145 his previous start against the Indians, it just didn't add up.
The play ended up losing, but I had a 26 cent edge. Sorry for the long response, but this is essentially how I do things. Create my own line and bet when the opener is wildly different.