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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Orioles facing their moment of truth...
jpero send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:41:11 PM
I have been biggest supporter of the O's on this site and have taken a lot of attacks and laughter out of mostly the Yankee fans on this site with a few Red Sox and Jays fans sprinkled in.

4 years ago I said the O's would be competitive in 3 years. Well that 3rd year was last year it was a disaster that started with Mark Connors coming on as pitching coach and effectively ruining every single young pitcher on the roster and setting them back. He was eventually pushed out the door by mid season in his first year because of hte destruction he caused.

Well this year after a month of play the Orioles are in 1st place in the AL East, having won every series with the exception of being swept by the Yankees in the 2nd series of the year (Yankees helped by awful umpiring and a few Oriole mistakes) and then losing to the Angels 2 out 3 after having a 10 day/10 game road trip spanning 3 time zones.

So far this year the Orioles have the 2nd best ERA in the AL, Best bullpen ERA, and 7th for starter ERA. They are 7th for BA, 3rd for HR, 6th for Runs scored (last in AL East).

The bullpen ERA would be even better (1.88 right now) if they didnt have Gregg and his 8 ERA factored in. The Orioles have been playing with a 24 man roster instead of 25 man because Gregg is useless and will either be cut or traded.

The Orioles now have to deal with the gauntlet of their schedule. The next 15 games are 3 @Yankees, 3@ Boston, 4 vs. Rangers, 3 vs. Rays, 2 vs Yankees.

If they get out of this stretch with a better than 5-10 record that will be a good sign as they will then have an overall record of 19-18. Most everyone wrote off the Orioles and refused to take them seriously.

Every team in the AL East has problems. Yankees 2nd worst starter ERA in baseball. Tampa and Red Sox awful bullpens. Toronto is less than expected in every category thus far.
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#2
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:07:54 PM
Orioles took 2 of 3 from the Yankees (thanks to an umpiring call of calling Tex's foul ball fair that led to Chavez 2 run HR) and then swept the Red Sox in an epic game that had Chris Davis on the mound and actually showing decent stuff (struck out the first batter he faced and then K'd Adrian in the 2nd inning)

The O's now have the BEST RECORD in baseball and sit in 1st place but welcome in arguably the best team in the baseball, Texas Rangers.

Tonights game is going to be difficult for the O's to win. Their bullpen is taxed and a few arms aren't available and Wieters is most likely unavailable after catching 17 innings.

Hoping for a 3-6 finish to this 15 game span. That would give them a 8-7 record during this stretch and have them at 22-15.

Time for people to start respecting the O's, just hope its not the odds makers cause I have been making a killing betting them all year.


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#3
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:11:00 PM
Jpero....Headed up to the Yard soon...as soon as the Caps win the Stanley Cup.....Quite a run they are on...
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#4
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:11:55 PM
Lets be honest...it wasn't just fans of other AL East teams. Just about everyone joined in on the laughter.

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#5
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:15:40 PM
Baseball is finally back in Bmore.  Have to enjoy this while it lasts cause it can implode at anytime lol



Its kinda sad though the Nats are stealing the thunder from the O's. Although the Nats are going to be such a fun team to watch over the next 5 or so years.

I have tickets to all the statue ceremonies and depending on work schedule I try to get tickets for games that I can make. Being up in CT its a bit of a drive.

Saw Matusz pitch against the Yankees last week @ NY and had tickets to the friday game at Fenway. Think I am def going to get tickets for when they play @Washington since I have yet to see that stadium.
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#6
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:17:21 PM
I'll admit. The O's are playing great right now. And Wieters is finally playing to his hype. But that incredible minor league pitching hasn't shaped up. Just Arrieta. And don't talk about Matusz' last 2 starts. He has to string a LOT more of those together.

But...as you said...it's the moment of truth. But it's also just 1 month into the season. 5 more to go.
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#7
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:24:03 PM
Dylan Bundy is all I need to say about the O's pitchers in the minors! Black N Orange and Rock Da Red!! 


 
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#8
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:25:58 PM
spent pen against the bashers from tejas

will be something if they can come home after a great ny-bos trip and beat the AL best
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#9
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:26:06 PM
Matusz hating

If you even bring up last year I will break down your analysis.

Throw last year away that was not Matusz pitching it was an alien in Matusz's body.

And every single start Matusz has had this year he has thrown well. His first start he was too amped and overthrew everything which impacted his control. His 2nd start the defense let him down a lot but you could also see incremental improvements from his 1st start and then O'day allowed 2 inherited runners to score. His 3rd start he pitched fine and then the final line made it look bad as Gregg allowed 3 inherited runners to score and a defensive miscue didnt help either.

His last 2 starts he has looked like the 2010 Matusz and he is still improving. I expect him to have a rough time tonight against the Rangers. Yesterdays game was an emotional strain so he wont have Wieters behind the plate (makes a difference) and Buck will ride Matusz and use him a sacrificial lamb because the bullpen has no one.

Arietta has been good but I'd still take Matusz. He is starting to show his old form and once he gets into a groove like the last 2 months of 2010 he will be a problem for the league. Arietta has better pure stuff but he will never have the control that Matusz can harness when he is right.
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#10
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:26:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoctorMorgano:

Dylan Bundy is all I need to say about the O's pitchers in the minors! Black N Orange and Rock Da Red!! 


 

YES. That is a guy that I'm really interested to see. Remarkable stuff he's shown from what I've seen with remarkable control. Some crazy K/BB ratio the last I've heard from him.
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#11
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:26:37 PM

O's playing great baseball... You're still a douche though!

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#12
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:30:47 PM
The state of Maryland has everything to be happy about in the sport of baseball right now. Then again, Jayson Werth went down last night. That was hard to watch. Regardless, I hope your Orangebirds keep it up. My Tigers visit right after All-Star break - that should be a dandy. Good luck against the Rangers the next 4 days ...

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#13
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:31:12 PM
O'S playing great baseball... Talk to us in September....
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#14
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:31:30 PM
Matusz shut down Jays and Yankees lineups his last two starts.  That ain't no joke.  I'm a Yankee fan, but get that money jpero. 
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#15
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:32:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoctorMorgano:

Dylan Bundy is all I need to say about the O's pitchers in the minors! Black N Orange and Rock Da Red!! 


 




Can't wait for him to get to AA so I can take my dad and uncle to see him pitch. My uncle pitched professionally and was a pitching coach so to take him to see the best pitching prospect, since Strasburgh, will be a treat.

Bundy will be the #1 prospect in all of baseball come next year and as Jim Palmer said he thinks he could be up in Bmore having success. Keith Law has said the same thing.

Dude throws mid-high 90s with life and has a plus curve and his change is coming along nice.

When the Royals went to interview him before last year's draft Bundy schooled the Royals scouts and front office on sports medicine and pitcher health. They left the meeting in awe that a 18 year old taught them about pitching mechanics and staying health.

Bundy even has his own workout routine that he has been doing since 15 and its so intense other Oriole minor leaguers have started working out with Bundy on occasion and the Orioles have given Bundy permission to use his workout routine rather than the Orioles routine.

There also some other interesting arms in the lower minors to keep an eye on as they can turn into something that could help the O's in the future.
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#16
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:32:51 PM
Sparky......You have laughed at us 4 to long.....
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#17
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:35:12 PM
jpero not being an behind but my question is will they be able to sign adam jones long term. That will depend if this goes beyond this season. Dan Duquette so far has done a nice job
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#18
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:36:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yankees2k6:

O's playing great baseball... You're still a douche though!



Pot meet Kettle.

I deal with Yankee fans everyday, all day. Have dealt with them my whole life living in southern CT. You are all the same with the exception of the true baseball Yankee fans who have an understanding of history of the game and actually acknowledge how baseball is played on an uneven playing field with the Yankees being the puppet masters deciding which and who they will take.
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#19
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:36:34 PM


O boy here we go again.................

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#20
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:41:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packers1992:

jpero not being an behind but my question is will they be able to sign adam jones long term. That will depend if this goes beyond this season. Dan Duquette so far has done a nice job


I might be in the minority but I hope they trade Adam Jones.

 I think his value on the trade market will bring back more than what he is worth. Jones has said he wants to stay in Bmore but Bmore has yet to come to him to talk extension. If no extension is signed his offseason I would expect him to be dealt.

Jones will never be a high OBP guy but he will hit for 25-30 HR maybe even 35 and play good defense. Maybe he finally cuts his K% down and continues to lay off the low and away breaking pitches that have been his achilles. If he does that he could become a Torri Hunter/Dave Winfield hybrid.
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#21
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:43:31 PM
jpero i'd look for them to trade him in the winter to the Braves
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#22
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:45:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Papi_4_MVP:



O boy here we go again.................



Robert "Freakin" Andino says Hello



The Orioles are the ones who destroyed the Red Sox. They have not been the same since Andino sent them home last year. And now the circus of Bobby V is in town. The players hate him and ironically the front office is starting to dislike Bobby. The Sox are in disarray and it might get worse before it gets better. The only bright side is that they have talent and talent can overcome adversity
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#23
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:46:36 PM
Red sox owner cares about soccer now
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#24
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:46:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jpero:

Matusz hating

If you even bring up last year I will break down your analysis.

Throw last year away that was not Matusz pitching it was an alien in Matusz's body.

And every single start Matusz has had this year he has thrown well. His first start he was too amped and overthrew everything which impacted his control. His 2nd start the defense let him down a lot but you could also see incremental improvements from his 1st start and then O'day allowed 2 inherited runners to score. His 3rd start he pitched fine and then the final line made it look bad as Gregg allowed 3 inherited runners to score and a defensive miscue didnt help either.

His last 2 starts he has looked like the 2010 Matusz and he is still improving. I expect him to have a rough time tonight against the Rangers. Yesterdays game was an emotional strain so he wont have Wieters behind the plate (makes a difference) and Buck will ride Matusz and use him a sacrificial lamb because the bullpen has no one.

Arietta has been good but I'd still take Matusz. He is starting to show his old form and once he gets into a groove like the last 2 months of 2010 he will be a problem for the league. Arietta has better pure stuff but he will never have the control that Matusz can harness when he is right.

Please. Break down last season for me. Because one thing I've learned from all of your analysis over the past 3-4 years is that you can talk all the stats you want...but the O's are still a sub-.500 team when all is said and done and aren't anywhere near the postseason.
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#25
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:48:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by packers1992:

jpero i'd look for them to trade him in the winter to the Braves


That was discussed this offseason and the Braves didnt want to give up any of their pitching prospects.

They wanted to pawn their injured Jair off on the Orioles along with Prado. They said no to Prado, Minor, and one of Beachy, Delgado, and Teheran.

I would like them to trade him to the Angels for a package that involves Borjous coming to Bmore with a couple top prospects.

Thank you Andy McPhail for the gift that keeps on giving. One of hte greatest trades in baseball history by trading Bedard to the Mariners.
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