Tampa v Texas over is the play for me

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Tampa v Texas over is the play for me
fever PM fever
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:00:29 PM

Rays v Rangers over 9 -117  4.68 units

1 unit = $500

The home side Rangers send out lefty Derek Holland.  Let us look at his numbers shall we?

5 Career starts vs. the Rays and a 6.51 ERA in those 5 starts.  He’s had 3 starts at home this season and he sports a 5.59 ERA in those home starts.  He has a career ERA of 5.27 in 35 home starts.  The Rangers home park has NOT been kind to him. Holland is 6-0 “over” in all his starts against Tampa Bay;

Now looking at The Rays David Price. He sports a  5.67 career ERA in 6 career starts vs the Rangers and he’s 1-1 on the road this year with an ERA of 5.19.  He holds a 15.63 ERA in two career starts at Rangers Ballpark so like Holland, this park has not been kind to him.  His career ERA is one full point higher when he’s outside of his home confines and sits just a notch under 4.00.

So how are these teams doing against left handed pitching is what I will look to next:

The Rays are batting .278 with an OBP of 3.61 against lefties compared to a team batting average of .233 against righties. They have averaged 5.04 runs per 9 innings against left handed starters.

The Rangers are another team that is destroying left handed arms this year with a team batting average of .307 and an OBP of .366 compared to a team batting average of .282 vs RHP which in and of itself isn’t bad either.   They are scoring an average of 6.34 runs per 9 innings vs. left handed starters.

I don’t care about Sunday night baseball stats.  Each game should be treated individually and I don’t look at any particular night trending in any direction and I also feel that sometimes too much emphasis can be put on the wind blowing in. We see this a lot in Cubs games where the under get’s pounded because of the wind only to see the game go over because of the extra base hits and so forth.  We don’t need a constant barrage of home runs to hit the total but balls falling into gaps, extra base hits etc will do the job just as well especially with these two pitchers who have BAD career numbers against their opposition tonight and AT THIS BALLPARK.

Looking at some treds;

  • Holland 20-7 OVER in night games over the last 2 seasons. (11.8 combined runs)
  • Holland 16-5 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons (12.8 combined runs)
  • Holland 12-3 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons (13.6 combined runs)
  • Holland 17-6 OVER in home games over the last 2 seasons (12.5 average combined runs)
  • Over is 19-7-1 in Hollands last 27 starts as a home favourite
  • Over is 20-8-1 in Hollands last 29 home starts
  • Rays are 4-2 “over”  vs lefties this year
  • Over is 9-3-1 in Prices last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-2 in Prices last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Prices last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Prices last 8 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Over is 9-4-1 in Prices last 14 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 21-10-2 in Prices last 33 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-3-1 in Rays last 12 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Rays last 8 games as a road underdog
  • Over is 7-0-1 in Rays last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Rays last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Good luck friends

 

Henry-Lilly PM Henry-Lilly
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:06:28 PM
  Good luck, Johnny Fever
brent0887 PM brent0887
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:06:35 PM
VegasBlood PM VegasBlood
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:07:13 PM
wind is blowing in at 30 mph
Hypnos2004 PM Hypnos2004
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:07:48 PM
like it fever. good luck
Henry-Lilly PM Henry-Lilly
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:08:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VegasBlood:

wind is blowing in at 30 mph



I'm here.  No it isn't.
Henry-Lilly PM Henry-Lilly
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:10:36 PM
We currently have wind gust from 9-13 miles an hour.  Not much of a factor at all.
mncppc54 PM mncppc54
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:12:08 PM
Good luck Fever. Thanks for the info.
hitmanwhitman PM hitmanwhitman
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:15:08 PM
wonderful research, looking for a parlay to go with,
fever PM fever
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Posted: 4/29/2012 7:49:38 PM

Thank you guys.   Henry-Lilly ... I love it when guys AT THE GAME like you debunk exaggerated or false weather reports. 

Don't over-think it guys ... if the stats and numbers line up .. .smack it ... like I said ... we don't need 9 homers for this total to go over.

fever PM fever
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Posted: 4/29/2012 8:00:45 PM

Bet down to +102 at my book.  I think the average joe is placing too much emphasis on the weather reports.  From all accounts it is a beautiful night for baseball in Texas, 

ADDED ANOTHER 1 unit at  +102

switchwalk PM switchwalk
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Posted: 4/29/2012 8:07:58 PM
thx for all the info

BOL tonight
DavidGurney PM DavidGurney
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Posted: 4/29/2012 8:14:35 PM
My situational system agrees.Favorites in this situation are 3-0 this year with all games going over.
fever PM fever
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Posted: 4/29/2012 11:01:58 PM
Horrible Tampa baserunning cost me this friggin bet.  3 runs missed for sure due to just bade base running/coaching.  oh well. 
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