Effective System

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Effective System
CanEHdianCapper PM CanEHdianCapper
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Posted: 4/30/2012 10:49:40 AM
Tough day yesterday going 0-2 on the only underdog plays that fit the system (COL & SEA).

Lots of dogs fit today, going to have to narrow them down to 2 or 3...

HOU +105
LAD +126
TOR +138
KC +140
OAK +150
SEA +115

If anyone has any insight as to trends for/against these teams that would help with today's picks it would be greatly appreciated!

BOL brothers!
mtndew146 PM mtndew146
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Posted: 4/30/2012 10:52:46 AM
Sea...Hellickson has a horrible K/B rate
CanEHdianCapper PM CanEHdianCapper
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Posted: 4/30/2012 11:27:08 AM
1st official play: HOU +105

Having a tough time pulling the trigger on SEA...while Hellickson hasn't been dominant by any means with 14 strikeouts compared to 12 walks in 25 1/3 innings pitched, he is getting big outs when he needs them. He's 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and held the Angels to a solo homer in six innings of work in his last start and also worked out of a bases-loaded jam in the second inning.
sjfinger14 PM sjfinger14
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Posted: 4/30/2012 12:41:53 PM
Well I can tell you my brother won 2 7-team parlays yesterday based on the number of loses a team had ....
joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 4/30/2012 3:11:27 PM

thaks for posting the plays again.  i didnt realize the system was down again sunday.  i got a late start capping so i didnt break down the card with the system since like 7 games had started.  i did go 3-0 on the mets. sf and tb under

the card today looks rough. as most of the system plays have road dogs facing one of the ALs monster clubs that have been battling each but now get to start sweeping these lower tier teams (ostensibly).  im going to back off on those. i dont like those pitching match ups either.

so im thinking ill only play the dodgers (great spot against nicasio).  a little something on the cubs against one of phili`s filler starters and id like to play the mets but i always seem to be on the wrong side of ra dickey games.  so ill tack on a high confidence play on the cubs over 7.5

bol

lakersfan20009 PM lakersfan20009
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Posted: 5/1/2012 4:49:32 PM
What's today's plays?

SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:01:17 PM
Interesting system. I would much appreciate the excel sheet if you still send it around. I?ll add you as friend here if that is ok
Fishtaco02 PM Fishtaco02
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:07:12 PM
Nice right up and an interesting system. I not much of a baseball capper, but will try this system out. GL everyone
joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/1/2012 5:09:01 PM

lakersfan, like i said, im not here to post plays and be tailed and then blamed or exhaulted for the results. That is one aspect of covers.com that i cant stand.   The system is simple to figure out and obviously the lines change throughout the day, so some plays come off the card if you dont get them at certain lines and will also vary by which books you play with.  I have a local book maker with web hosting so often my lines are different than yours.  The key is to use the system to narrow down the card for the day and then use your discretion to pick the best remaining plays. 

Yes the system has done poorly the last few days, but i told you the weekend is often rough, and if we had a little sense we would have eliminated many of the losing plays and thereby mitigating our loses to a manageable scope where the system will rebound 

SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/2/2012 6:27:16 AM
Hi Joeyd88

Do you ever factor in the pitcher from the underdog, when playing your system?
I've used your system today and narrowed it down to 4 possibles. One has a pitcher without records for this year, so I ruled that out so basically there are 3 plays for today (D-backs, Cubs and Indians) that fit your system, if I did it correct.

D-backs' opposing pitcher is borderline to the system ranking at #21 on the list - however, D-backs is bringing a pitcher ranking #4. Hence my question, if you factor that into the system?
LittleMacc PM LittleMacc
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Posted: 5/2/2012 7:18:33 AM
Very very interesting JoeyD..... Makes alot of sense. We kind of do our betting through a similar system playing more coin flips and nothing very juicy based on researching, etc. I would love to see the spreadsheet. Ill friend request ya.. BOL MAN
joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/2/2012 9:35:38 AM

Yes, i sometimes but not always look at Sagarins ratings for the underdog pitcher, if i find i know little about him otherwise, but its not part of the system, but i dont see how it could hurt at all. 

I dont want to start posting the system plays on here because it sounds like some of you are trying to use the system, and in some cases coming up with different games than me. For reasons such as Im on the east coast, i get different numbers at different times of the day, i use a local book maker with web hosting, etc.  Anyway, yesterday these games fit my card (I do my analysis every weekday morning at (9:30am EST for consistency), obviously lines change, but regardless you want to be betting dogs no matter what, when they move off a dog to -110 or worse, they come off the card, if they move to a dog, then thats up to you because you prally wouldnt be able to see that they were a fav or even earlier in the day. I recommend that you do your capping at the same time every day regardless. 

Yesterday system pointed me to:

MIN (+140) @ LAA -- Loss -1 unit

LAD (+100) @ COL -- WIN -- +1 unit

TEX @ TOR (+130) -- WIN -- +1.3 units

 

joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/2/2012 9:37:15 AM

Im pretty sure Zimmerman was in Sagarin's top 20 NL, thats why i ruled out the Dbacks as a system play last night. 

Naturally I bet them anyway, because I think the dbacks as a dog any night has good value, they have a good staff and a good lineup.  At least until they cool down.

joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/2/2012 9:37:40 AM
Oh and the cubs fit the system last night, but they were postponed
SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/2/2012 10:03:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by joeyd88:

Im pretty sure Zimmerman was in Sagarin's top 20 NL, thats why i ruled out the Dbacks as a system play last night. 

Naturally I bet them anyway, because I think the dbacks as a dog any night has good value, they have a good staff and a good lineup.  At least until they cool down.



Alright, today he is #21. I agree with the D-backs and based on your system I did a more thorough analysis of that game and wrote it up here, in case you are interested:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101336662
bigbang12 PM bigbang12
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Posted: 5/2/2012 8:14:01 PM
hows this working out?
SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/3/2012 1:29:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigbang12:

hows this working out?


It worked out great for me at least. I tried the system last night and it gave me Indians, D-backs and Cubs. I didn't use the system blindly so also did a more thorough analysis subsequently and ended up playing Indians, D-backs and Royals RL last night.
Went 2-1 with Indians from this system. D-backs failed, but only closely and it was also only borderline acceptable by this system (see above). Royals was not from the system but based on value betting.

I went up +1,3 units last night and if I had stayed true to the system, as I interpret it, I would be 2-1 with +1,7 units on Cubs, Indians and D-backs.

Thanks again for sharing, Joey!
philly387 PM philly387
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Posted: 5/3/2012 2:48:31 AM
This is what I came up with for Thursdays games...Pretty sure I did it right? Lines will probably change but this is as of now.

PHI    +120
CHC   +135
WAS  +100
CLE   +110
KAN  +115
SirRagnar PM SirRagnar
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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:27:10 AM
@philly387

Those are the same matches I come up with, so I suppose you are right.
Of those I particular like PHI, CHC and WAS as the pitcher is ranked significantly higher for the dog than the fav.
I am likely discarding KAN because I doubt they can make upsets back-to-back.
tspinner PM tspinner
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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:45:33 AM
Gl gonna pay attention
Posted using a mobile device.
philly387 PM philly387
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Posted: 5/3/2012 9:15:25 AM
Yankees fan here so always tough to bet against them so definitely taking KC Out of the picture. But definitely love dogs with the better pitcher. The Cleveland vs Chicago White Sox game I don't know about...2 not so great pitchers at the moment so maybe a slugfest we will see..
joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/3/2012 10:20:40 AM

Those are the games I came up with for today. Well done fellas.

Def tenative a few of these.  Yankees bats are cold and putting phelps out there on the road, swisher still out, nunez will play, gardener might be back for the weekend, arod and cano arent producing RBIs.  Duffy and Phelps have limited innings, maybe some scoring today actually after getting beat down by the O's.

Not sure about Masterson vs Danks, but the juice on the over is too high for me to take really.  Liked cleveland last night but not so much tonight

Dewiler is ranked much higher than Kennedy but Kennedy is good and Detwiler is in the lower innings n-ERA ranking area.  Not ready to pull the trigger on that home dog just yet. 

We have a few teams here that won last night and Im not sure that they are quality clubs that string together wins easily so im reading more about them. ie CHC, CLE,KC (Again, not playing the system blindly)

Locked in PHI with Blanton vs ATL and Delgado, think philly has the advantage here, the line is dropping too, might not be a dog soon.

I think covers could be the last stage of the SYSTEM analysis, its days like today that we need to collaborate and use our collective knowledge and resources to fine tune the picks, even if it yields one good valued-in POD, thats fine with me.

What are my brothers thinking?

BTW - that Sarah Phillips who used to have a column on here just got fired from ESPN for a twitter scam, she is hot and 22, how does she write for ESPN already, Imma find her and marry her. Crafty wench

drudatt108 PM drudatt108
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Posted: 5/3/2012 10:32:12 AM
philly387 PM philly387
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Posted: 5/3/2012 3:35:47 PM
Sorry wish I would have seen your post sooner...I took philly this morning :) Hope you all did too!

Only other one I am thinking of taking is Washington but still debating at the moment.

Also took chicago...and they are blowing it....
joeyd88 PM joeyd88
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Posted: 5/3/2012 4:59:03 PM

Yeah, i took both PHI and CHC, though i was taking both, but got screwed on another walk off.  This happened to me twice last night with both COLvsLAD with Giambi (wtf) and Desmond in the NATS/ARI game.   Im having poor luck but these things happen when its all away dogs all the time (as it seems to be)---still, gotta keep persueing value, still having an excellent season, inside and outside the system

Not too keen on the rest of the system plays tonight -- KC, CLE and WAS --- any thoughts fellas?

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