Posted: 4/27/2012 11:58:59 AM
Thanks to my vigilent use of Covers.com i came to learn about a MLB underdog system that has an excellent track record and is worth paying attention to, or at least tracking for yourself. I only learned about it last year and was only able to track it for the first 2.5 months of the season but it was up 40 units in that time and its pretty simple but requires daily involvement. Im not taking credit for this at all but I thought more of us should know about it, because its not like the books can adjust for a large amount of people betting this way. Here is the criteria:
Only bet underdogs - this is a very basic strategy, the worst MLB teams win 40% of game and the best win 60% (100 wins) so underdogs have alot of VALUE. Going 1 for 2 with two underdogs never yields a net negative result. Betting favorites is a guaranteed way to lose in the long run.
On a daily basis:
Eliminate all underdogs which are greater than +150 -- so sort all underdogs that are +100, +110, +120, +130, +140 and +150 and then cut them done based on the rest of the systems criteria....
Eliminate any underdog on the 3 game losing streak or facing a team on a 3 game winning streak (or greater)
THen eliminate any underdog remaining that is facing a Top 20 n-ERA pitcher based on Jeff Sagarin's USA Today ratings sheet found at the following link. This is the top 20 in either the AL or the NL (there are separate lists). So there are 40 starting pitchers on any given day which you never bet against (and they change daily so you have to check this link every day)
These 3 criteria usually give you about 4-7 games a day depending on the amount of games played. When i tracked it, the system give you about 30% of all game played.
Bet the remaining underdogs on an identical unit basis and you will be a winner. I am up 8 units currently betting 28 of the 137 games played, winning 15 (only 53.6% winning).
Please note that the system gains momentum as the season goes on. And although it has picked 40 games, gone 19 W's and 21 L's and yielded 1.1 units as of today....I eliminated 16 of those 40 games based on "untested underdog pitching starters" and saved myself 7 units in loses (since only 4 of those games won). Sometimes the system will require your discretion and cant always be used blindly, but all in all the system gives you the best value picks for you to decide which ones to take.
Happy Hunting, Lets get them books