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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread, Friday 4-13-2012
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:25:42 AM
You guys aren't superstitious are you?

Nothing but GOOD luck shall prevail today
I have spoken
As it is written, so it shall be

Now, get yer lazy fools in here with anti-superstition picks.

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#2
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:26:38 AM
Morning Key.
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#3
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:30:09 AM
Do you have any thoughts on the Padres and Dodgers? The over for the first five innings hit on sunday between these two clubs with the same two pitchers Richard and Harang. However, the Padres did all of the scoring. Game switches to Dodger Stadium...and is at night now versus a day game.
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#4
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:32:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Morning Key.
And to you buddy. I see you are going to the Det-ChW game today and looking for opinions. Frankly I think that is a tough one to call, so if you just gotta have a little on it, play the dog. What I really hope you get though is a very good game either way. BOL 
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#5
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:35:06 AM
Yeah....the Dodgers have been playing some good ball at home this year. Do you have any leans as of now?
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#6
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:37:13 AM

I'm on the Angels, Rays and D'backs.......I think I would like all 5 in the first five as well.

 

I think the Angels are getting a great number.....I'm cold as ice though so who knows.......maybe Friday the 13th will change my luck

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#7
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:37:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Do you have any thoughts on the Padres and Dodgers? The over for the first five innings hit on sunday between these two clubs with the same two pitchers Richard and Harang. However, the Padres did all of the scoring. Game switches to Dodger Stadium...and is at night now versus a day game.
Another game I don't have a lot of interest although I would play it over 3.5 if my arm were twisted, even though it is now a night game at Dodger Stadium. The linemakers aren't stupid and have set a low number intentionally because they know most folks like the under in this spot.
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#8
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:43:04 AM
My biggest lean as of now is the Brewers and Braves over.
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KeyElement
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#9
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:43:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:

Yeah....the Dodgers have been playing some good ball at home this year. Do you have any leans as of now?
Yeah, just leans right now but I figure you have to get going so I will say Iean toward darn near all dogs, Tampa, Cleveland, Baltimore (that's not a typo), and Houston (Neither is that). My best bet lean though is the Giants -170, the price is justified. BOL, again. 
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#10
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:46:35 AM
With you on Brewers-Braves over too, at least I lean that way.
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#11
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:30:12 AM

Good morning Key.

Something good has to happen today, since yesterday was so bad.

I am taking the Pirates +.5 and the Mariners.

Good luck to everyone.

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#12
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:55:15 AM

YTD: 5-9-2, -395.90

Giants -170 (Cain / McDonald)

Damn it, I got off to a slow start last year too, and it definitely pisses me off to have to play out of a hole, but I still feel like every day is an opportunity to sweep and in this one I think the same thing I thought when I did my pre season analysis and write ups. The Giants are still a contender and the Pirates are still the worst organization in professional sports. Cain is an ace, a legitimate ace. The only thing that gives bettors the impression McDonald is an ace is that he is the best Pittsburgh has to offer, but that is not an ace, it is just the top of a garbage heap. The Giants have rebounded from their offensive slump of last year and are rocking the ball. In my system Cain-McDonald, Giants O versus Pirates O, the Giants win by 96 points and that only happens a few times a year with all teams no matter how good or bad we think they are. If I were ignorant, retarded or downright stupid I would be one of those guys that throws around the dreaded “L” word every day, but that ain’t me and I ain’t gonna do it, since literally any pick can lose in professional sports.

Orioles +165 (Hunter / Morrow)

The problem here is that everyone this side of Hades thinks the Orioles are going to go 0-72 versus the balance of the AL East and are laying any price to get their hands on the “easy” money. How many times has that strategy failed? Now some of the boys that lay hat price will tell you they are playing to make “a unit” which is all well and good until they realize that -180 pays 56 cents on the dollar and only 34% of the return on risk that the Orioles pay. Are the Blue Jays really 3 times as likely to win this game as the O’s? Can Morrow and the Jays defeat Hunter and the O’s 75 times out of 100?

Astros +175 (Harrell / Nolasco)

Same situation, different venue. Are the Astros as bad and the Marlins as good as everyone seems to think? Are the Marlins even more likely to win his matchup 75 times out of 100 than the Blue Jays are to win theirs? I think it should be obvious I have no problem with heavy favorites, after all I laid -215 with Kershaw and am laying -170 with Cain today, but no way can I put either Morrow or Nolasco in that class. Determining true value versus perceived value is what this is all about and I feel very good about my numbers today.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units. Lines are current at 5 Dimes as I post

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#13
Posted: 4/13/2012 12:04:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lltb43:

Good morning Key.Something good has to happen today, since yesterday was so bad.I am taking the Pirates +.5 and the Mariners.Good luck to everyone.

Yeah, Thursday sucked but we got a long way to go so no need to panic. The Mariners are probably worth the high line but I don't think that plus a half will get you there with the Pirates. Can't even wish you luck since a tie at the end of 5 would cost me, So BOL on the Mariners.

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#14
Posted: 4/13/2012 12:35:55 PM
thank you for your hard work
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#15
Posted: 4/13/2012 12:52:11 PM
Key, what are your thoughts on playing 1st Five MLs versus first five dogs that you can get a +0.5 line on but pay some more juice?
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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:17:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Key, what are your thoughts on playing 1st Five MLs versus first five dogs that you can get a +0.5 line on but pay some more juice?
I really don't like +.5 or +1.5 when playing dogs. If don't think they have a 50-50 chance to win outright I don't want to play them anyway, and since I do feel they can or should win outright I want the better payback.

bullmoose and koponofor3

Please join us daily, it as an open opinion thread.
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#17
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:18:52 PM
You'll bounce back Key, your analysis is sound and I like the basis of your plays, most of them anyway, no one can agree every day, this is baseball after all. 

I'm considering the O's and Atlanta today. Still thinking about SF.

GL
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#18
Posted: 4/13/2012 1:19:44 PM
Good luck Key
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#19
Posted: 4/13/2012 2:02:42 PM
Glad to see you on the O's tonight. I got it at +177, way way too much value to pass up. Yea the O's got swept by the Yankees but if you actually watched the series the O's should have won 2 of those games and would be 5-1 right now.

Just some bad luck and breaks that all went the Yankees way. Its not like the O's got thrashed or outplayed and rolled over. They played just as well as the Yankees and better in some cases.
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#20
Posted: 4/13/2012 2:19:00 PM
jpero; I only got +165 because that was the 5 inning line, it is always a little less. I have stayed on top of the O's and still think they finish 5th in the division, but they won't lose them all or go 0-72 in the AL East. Hunter graded out very well in his first start and may turn the corner this year I think Morrow is over valued at that price and we know the O's can hit. BOL to both of us.
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#21
Posted: 4/13/2012 2:32:05 PM
,gL
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#22
Posted: 4/13/2012 2:50:20 PM
Good luck key   
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#23
Posted: 4/13/2012 3:04:46 PM
On the Matt Cain 1st 5 w/ u Key, Cain thrives @ATT Park where fly balls don't become HR's and already a big fan of Melky Cabrera and how much different he makes their lineup.
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#24
Posted: 4/13/2012 4:02:02 PM
Key any thoughts on the Royals,Im used to getting them as a dog,not sure if I want to lay juice,lol.
But love their pitcher as hes made us money last few years,
SF-KC parley??
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#25
Posted: 4/13/2012 4:15:47 PM
JEG: I guess as a side bet that parlay doesn't look too bad. Think the Royals line is about right though if Lowe is staying sober these days, lol
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