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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
pramsey1843
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pramsey1843
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#76
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:47:44 AM
Lol yeah the o/u beta is fade bait right now.  A little bit miffed, but plenty of great things have been invented by accident.  A freeze just means the Phillies are frozen.  The system loves them and they stink.  Picks to follow.
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pramsey1843
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#77
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:52:44 AM
7-4 +5.84 units on the day -6.18 units overall runline/moneyline

Totals Beta test 2-3 -1.3 units (4-18 overall -15.8 units)
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pramsey1843
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#78
Posted: 4/10/2012 7:57:51 AM
Rays 106 (3x)
Yankees -128 (2x)
Cardinals -102 (2x)
White Sox 114 (3x)
Mets -119 (1x)
Blue Jays 113 (1x)
Brewers -110 (3x)
Diamondbacks -103 (5x)
Royals 106 (1x)
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pramsey1843
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#79
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:00:55 AM
Dodgers u6.5
White Sox o7.5
Cardinals u9
Diamondbacks o6.5
Royals o7.5
Mariners u9.5

remember do not play these this is a beta test
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#80
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:44:59 AM
I'm going to follow all year...I like that the picks come from a computer.  That way if there's a bad day we can be mad at a machine and not a guy.

How long have you been using this system? 

Here's to a making season!!!
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pramsey1843
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#81
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:22:59 PM
Used it last year.  Beta tested first quarter of last season worked out the bugs.  I back tested it on five years of data.
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pramsey1843
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#82
Posted: 4/10/2012 4:05:56 PM
Celtics +7.5 (2x)
Bobcats +6.5 (1x)
Knicks +7 (1x)
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pramsey1843
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#83
Posted: 4/10/2012 6:40:36 PM
adding mets -101 (2x)
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#84
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:43:02 PM
Really interesting.  I have been following you and plan on doing so all summer.  Good luck.
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StGermain808
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#85
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:16:16 AM

luvin your system pramsey
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#86
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:22:04 AM
I am semi new to sportsbetting but i know alot about the sports and pay close attention and recently started betting a few months ago. Is there any insight any of you could give me on the smarts of betting or how the system works? Thanks
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#87
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:23:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Dodgers u6.5
White Sox o7.5
Cardinals u9
Diamondbacks o6.5
Royals o7.5
Mariners u9.5

remember do not play these this is a beta test

 

That would have been money!!!!
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pramsey1843
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#88
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:57:21 AM
Interesting piece of information for basketball tomorrow.  My line move calculator says the following three lines will most likely move at least half a point possible up to a point and a half on one of them.  I played them tonight.

76ers -3.5 (1x)
Celtics -3 (2x)
Knicks +4 (1x)
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pramsey1843
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#89
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:59:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Parlay4Life775:

I am semi new to sportsbetting but i know alot about the sports and pay close attention and recently started betting a few months ago. Is there any insight any of you could give me on the smarts of betting or how the system works? Thanks

It is all about information.  My system quantifies everything and gives you an estimated edge number.  The more information you can sort through the more likely you are to be successful.
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#90
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:03:01 AM
I have a lot of experience with what seems to have been a similar simulator to yours.

After multiple seasons in multiple sports, I found a very alarming trend in every season, every sport, that the beginning of the season was lights out, slowly fading to about 40% winners by the end.  I can't assume the same for your system, but if it operates similarly, now's the time to strike!
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pramsey1843
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#91
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:16:06 AM
6-2 +7.98 units today.  Up 1.8 units overall on runline/moneyline system.

totals were 3-1 today +1.9 units (7-19 overall -13.9 units)  remember we are still beta testing the system for the totals, just posting them so you can see the process

By now you can tell, I throw money out all over the place.  I like action but love making a profit.  Other action I have out right now that I will disclose are NBA and NHL Championship bets.  I have Celtics at 30:1, Grizzlies at 35:1, Captials 25:1, Predators 20:1.  I play one unit a piece on a team in this odds range every year.  I had the giants to win the series two years ago.  No value in short odds for favorites and rarely value in 50:1 or greater teams.  100 bucks on a team in the range I like pays a good chunk of a nice trip to Vegas.
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pramsey1843
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#92
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:19:03 AM
Lol gonna post hockey plays too.  Have had success in playoffs in past more than regular season. 

Red Wings 120 (1x)
Flyers 156 (1x) 

baseball plays to be posted next
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pramsey1843
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#93
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:21:01 AM
Ok I lied one more NBA pick
Kings +3 baseball to follow
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pramsey1843
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#94
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:33:26 AM
White Sox+135 (2x)
Red Sox -115 (1x)
Nationals -106 (1x)
Rays 164 (1x)
Diamondbacks 117 (3x)
Phillies -130
Astros 115 (1x)
Dodgers -132 (1x)
Angels -160 (3x)
Giants -118 (4x)
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pramsey1843
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#95
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:36:38 AM
Now the totals..Remember this is a beta test
Cardinals u7.5
Red Sox u8
Nationals u6.5
Rays u7
Brewers u7
Dbacks u7
Phillies u6.5
Rockies u8.5
Angels u7.5
Pirates u6.5
quote
pramsey1843
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#96
Posted: 4/11/2012 2:39:11 AM
one runline pick 

A's -1.5 175 (1x)
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#97
Posted: 4/11/2012 8:03:24 AM
How many units are the Phils?
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#98
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:26:20 AM
Good Luck.  Interested in reading this as it develops.
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pramsey1843
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#99
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:39:14 PM
phils -130 (5x)

i thought that it was a freeze out but we are percentage points away

so it is a play
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mikkii10
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#100
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:15:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

White Sox+135 (2x)
Red Sox -115 (1x)
Nationals -106 (1x)
Rays 164 (1x)
Diamondbacks 117 (3x)
Phillies -130
Astros 115 (1x)
Dodgers -132 (1x)
Angels -160 (3x)
Giants -118 (4x)
these are the picks for wed?
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