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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation
HoustonSports
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#26
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:27:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

No it only picks winners.  The only favorites that it has incorrectly picked are the Brewers and the Rangers on the runline.  The Rangers on the runline was a push really since you also had the Rangers straight up.  The Dodgers was a 3x play.  I don't see what would give you that idea.

 

It's because he has his head up behind along with that little wagging finger of his. Don't pay attention to morons like him

 

best of luck today

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#27
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:30:58 AM
Thanks you too.
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#28
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:37:10 AM
Indians -101 (2x)
Nationals 106 (1x)
Red Sox 104    (1x)
Angels -1.5 115  (1x)
Twins 101 (3x)
Rockies -115 (2x)
Rockies -1.5 145 (1x)
Mariners -113 (3x)
Rays -126 (1x)
Rangers -1.5 115 (1x)
Dodgers 107  (2x)
Marlins 142 (1x)
Giants 115 (2x)
Phillies -163 (2x)
Phillies -1.5 -105 (1x)
Adding Braves -110 (1x)


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#29
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:39:23 AM
Thanks Pramsey.  I will be following you.  I also have Angels -1.5, Twins and SF.  Best of luck.
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#30
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:41:13 AM
Hey pramsey

Good luck today, and good luck with testing your total system this year...I hope it works!  Thanks for sharing your picks with everyone...I'll check your picks everyday...I'm only in year 2 of baseball betting.  Lets make some

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#31
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:54:06 AM
Remember do not play these totals this is a beta test.  Look at the moneyline/runline plays.  Those are solid plays.

mariners/a's u 6.5 1x
orioles/twins u9 1x
giants/diamonbacks u8 1x
blue jays/indians u8 1x
nationals/cubs u9 1x

currently 2-8 -6.8 units (beta test)
currently 10-4 +11.48 on rated plays
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#32
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:57:56 AM
what are today picks?
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#33
Posted: 4/7/2012 11:10:30 AM
Todays picks
Indians -101 (2x)
Nationals 106 (1x)
Red Sox 104    (1x)
Angels -1.5 115  (1x)
Twins 101 (3x)
Rockies -115 (2x)
Rockies -1.5 145 (1x)
Mariners -113 (3x)
Rays -126 (1x)
Rangers -1.5 115 (1x)
Dodgers 107  (2x)
Marlins 142 (1x)
Giants 115 (2x)
Phillies -163 (2x)
Phillies -1.5 -105 (1x)
Braves -110 (1x)
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#34
Posted: 4/7/2012 11:34:22 AM
pramsey thats a ton of plays for one day! 16-0 today!!!
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#35
Posted: 4/7/2012 1:03:14 PM
I just do what the computer tells me.
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#36
Posted: 4/8/2012 12:38:39 AM
What a disaster. 4-11 today -10.11 units

Total 14-15 +1.37 units.  I am up 137 dollars in three days.  Today was horrible but we will rebound.  This system was +109.32 units last season.  I have faith.  The totals beta test is not going well at all, but going to let it run for a month so I have some data to make the tweaks.  
The beta test is 2-12 -11.2 units.  I say this every time, please do not play the totals.  It is where my moneyline/runline system was last year.  The good news is tomorrow has my largest play of the early season and one of the largest plays that I will ever make.  5 units is usually as high as the system allows, but this play is 7 units.  Plays to follow.
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#37
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:14:14 AM

Orioles -1.5 165 (1x)
Brewers -1.5 185 (1x)
Brewers 101 (1x)
Mets -105 (1x)
Red Sox 109 (1x)
Phillies -122 (7x)
Rays -118 (1x)
Nationals -122 (1x)
Giants -114 (2x)
Dodgers 114 (1x)
Marlins 117 (1x)

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#38
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:16:38 AM
Remember don't play these totals

Phillies u7.5
Yankees o8
White sox o9
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#39
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:57:12 AM
You'll rebound today...
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#40
Posted: 4/8/2012 10:15:59 AM

what underlying stats does your model use? Does it account for weather, off-time, bullpen availability, etc? what difference in the theoretical vs. actual line where a play becomes "profitable."

Does it account for injuries, etc? Not trying to give you the third degree here; just interested in the fundamentals of your model.

Thnx

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#41
Posted: 4/8/2012 10:20:18 AM

I personally just look at betting trends from the vegas window, try to find plays that are contrarian vis-a-vis public opinion, the line is going to opposite way (ostensibly there are large and sharp players outweighing the public money), and basically when vegas is tossing out short lines for bad teams. All this needs to be weighed by a fundamental understanding of the game so I try to watch sports 24/7 outside of work, which is pretty sweet.

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#42
Posted: 4/8/2012 10:24:12 AM
whats wrong wit the over on the yankee game
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#43
Posted: 4/8/2012 10:42:06 AM

im with on the phillys..gl

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#44
Posted: 4/8/2012 4:44:22 PM
Bullpens not making these bets very profitable.  What a complete collapse by philly.
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#45
Posted: 4/8/2012 6:50:42 PM
Worse day ever for blown leads...never seen so many bets going well and then have so many lost in the last innings.
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#46
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:22:58 PM
Teams collapsed left and right.  It is a long season.  My system was profitable for me last season.  If you back test it, it would have been profitable for the last five.  There are have been some drastic swings but it always comes back in line.  The system is very strange it contains all stats and analyzes individual matchups between pitchers and hitters.  It calculates the probability of certain pitchers being used in certain situations and the probability of those situations.  It considers weather, probable home plate umpire, Home/Away splits, pitcher splits, lineup variations.  It probably has as many stats involved as any system out there.  I pulled down historical stats, historical lines, pitch by pitch stats and game by game stats.  I have a huge database of just about every sports stat that exists for every sport that can be bet.  Each year, I do as much modeling as I can throughout the year.  I even use public betting stats.  If it is out there, it carries some weight.  The game is played out via monte carlo analysis of each situation on a decision tree.  Then the results are filtered using other relevant data.  I really am proud of it.  It has made me lots of money.  I talked my wife into a ten thousand dollar bankroll.  I told her if it was ever gone, I would never bet again.  I have to be sure something works before I gamble because I love betting.  A unit for me is $100 if you have any questions feel free to ask.  
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#47
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:24:11 PM
It does consider injuries as well.
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#48
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:28:48 PM
Nothing is wrong with the yankee over.  My system picked those three above.
Phillies u7.5
Yankees o8
White sox o9

I am building the system, so I don't play the picks until I finish building it.  I don't want you to play picks that I wouldn't.  The total system is so bad right now that maybe I just need to switch the yes to no.
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#49
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:33:34 PM
One more thing.  I have a runline indicator and percentage.  It tells me how often the each team should win by more than two runs.  A perceived 3% advantage is a 1x play.  5% 2x, 7% 3x, 10% 4x, 15% 5x, 17.5% 6x, go up 2.5% per unit max play for me is 10x.  
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#50
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:42:31 PM
The reason that I am posting picks early right now is a lot of times early in the season big line moves can be caught before they move.  The program predicts that as well.  The program gives line predictions as well.  For instance today, Giants -114 last night was a good line.  Giants -132 not so much.  Win or lose I put 36 less dollars in play by playing early.  I have access to all Vegas casinos and have money spread over 13 online books so that I may line shop.  Over football season small differences from -110 to -115 don't kill you but over baseball season those hurt.
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