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[MLB Betting] Topic: Preseason SABRmetrics Discussion |
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fitguy67 |
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#51 Posted: 3/1/2012 4:22:07 PM
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si1ly |
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#52 Posted: 3/1/2012 4:54:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by billieman:
I really like the discussion in this thread; however, I could not disagree with this statement more. I will take guys like Verlander Weaver and Beckett over guys like Morton Westbrook and Lowe any day of the week. A ball hit on the ground can be hit just as hard and even harder than a ball hit in the air. You cannot make a generalization like this. Admittedly you do acknowledge that people will disagree with this statement which puts you ahead of most of the clowns here. On the flip side, it is hard to take anyone seriously as a knowledgeable baseball fan that makes such a general statement. I cannot imagine a single major league baseball pitcher, past or present agreeing with this statement. Batters hit soft pop flys on great pitches that have the batter reaching in a way that makes it impossible to hit a ball hard. That's an ideal pitch for a quality pitcher.
I know my logic seems like an over-simplification of the problem so I'll break it down in number format. Keep in mind that I did a lot of rounding throughout these calculations so the end result has about 2% error but it still illustrates the point I'm making quite clearly I think.
185245 Plate Appearances 69% of PA's were put in play (excluding home runs)
127819 BALLS PUT IN PLAY
45% GROUND BALLS (57518 Hits) .230 BABIP = 13229 HITS
36% FLY BALLS (46015 Hits) .170 BABIP = 7823 HITS 19% LINE DRIVES (24286 Hits) .720 BABIP = 17486 HITS
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45% of balls put in play were on the ground resulting in 13229 hits (30.7% of total Hits+HR)
55% of balls put in play were in the air resulting in 25309 Hits + 4552 HR's = 29861 Total Hits+HRs (69.3% of total Hits+HR)
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So 45% of balls put in play have "down-contact" but only result in roughly 31% of hits + home runs (most of which are obviously singles and it's physically impossible for it to be a home run).
And 55% of balls put in play have "up-contact" and account for roughly 69% of hits + home runs (most are still singles but there's a much higher percentage of doubles, triples and obviously all the home runs come from this category).
I'm not saying a pitcher can't be successful with a high fly ball rate (obviously this is very stadium dependent also). But there's no denying the logic that a ball hit on the ground is "better" than a ball hit in the air. Pitchers with higher fly ball rates tend to have much higher K% so you have to weigh your risk/reward when talking about which pitcher you prefer. But I'm not really concerned with pitching styles with this argument. I'm simply talking about the trajectory of a baseball. If I were a pitching coach, these numbers would be on the bullpen wall every single game. |
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lewlew |
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#53 Posted: 3/1/2012 5:42:36 PM what the darn is this?
i think most rather have a ground ball pithcher than one who throws home runs!
you had to use your calculator to fuggure that out.
did they create sheldon cooper of big bang theory after you???????????
just kidding. |
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KeyElement |
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#54 Posted: 3/1/2012 5:48:36 PM
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lewlew |
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#55 Posted: 3/1/2012 5:49:06 PM ive never heard a pitching coach say keep the ball down guys................good god!-- being facetious!
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lewlew |
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#56 Posted: 3/1/2012 6:02:54 PM this is fun..
ok we all rather have sabathia vs westbrook straight upp.
but my best guess is cc will be heavy favorite.........so where does your metrics help you.in getting VALUE? |
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mainmanmainman2 |
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#57 Posted: 3/1/2012 6:16:04 PM 
a team that has good outfielders and cannon arms... ARIZ d backs
that being said: ian kennedy, t cahill, d hudson! |
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lewlew |
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#58 Posted: 3/1/2012 9:48:00 PM ? do saber tooth tetrics account for the obesity of a pitcher.
cc will eat hisself to the bench . obese just doesnt play well in pro sports? |
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fitguy67 |
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#59 Posted: 3/2/2012 4:03:06 AM
...the musicians (mostly black) touring the country in the 30s and 40s had to deal with considerable bigotry from much less talented, generally unsuccessful non-blacks (aka. "guy") who just could not "get" what they were doing and were jealous of their success
the great tenor-saxophonist, Lester Brown, developed a signature expression for when he felt trouble was possibly brewing with a local garbage-disturbing square...and that the crew should all just politely ignore and get themselves away from the frustrated guy...
he would say..."I feel a draft"...and everyone understood Lester's meaning...and where (ie. who) it came from...and everyone politely backed off all interactions with the a-hole, and continued interacting to those many blacks and non-blacks who were "hip" to the music and the underlying philosophy and attitudes behind it...
This has been and is a real hip thread...and it must continue...but i must observe..."I feel a draft"
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si1ly |
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#60 Posted: 3/2/2012 10:04:50 AM
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mainmanmainman2 |
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#61 Posted: 3/2/2012 10:43:17 AM  |
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#62 Posted: 3/2/2012 1:24:05 PM |
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fitguy67 |
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#63 Posted: 3/2/2012 1:51:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly: I hope everyone here understands the message...
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guil0000 |
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#64 Posted: 3/2/2012 2:01:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by fitguy67:
there was an excellent 4-hour documentary a few years back about Jazz (not the basketball team...but the uniquely-American form of music)...one of the things i remember clearly about it, was
...the musicians (mostly black) touring the country in the 30s and 40s had to deal with considerable bigotry from much less talented, generally unsuccessful non-blacks (aka. "guy") who just could not "get" what they were doing and were jealous of their success
the great tenor-saxophonist, Lester Brown, developed a signature expression for when he felt trouble was possibly brewing with a local garbage-disturbing square...and that the crew should all just politely ignore and get themselves away from the frustrated guy...
he would say..."I feel a draft"...and everyone understood Lester's meaning...and where (ie. who) it came from...and everyone politely backed off all interactions with the a-hole, and continued interacting to those many blacks and non-blacks who were "hip" to the music and the underlying philosophy and attitudes behind it...
This has been and is a real hip thread...and it must continue...but i must observe..."I feel a draft"
If there was an option to nominate a post for post of the year. This would most definitely get my vote. Hillarious and witty!
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#65 Posted: 3/2/2012 7:39:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mainmanmainman2: whats your take on guys that pitch for contact?
I like strikeouts too much! The perfect pitcher for me is a guy who has a K/9 ratio above 8, has a K/BB ratio above 4, and has a GB/FB ratio above 1.5. Not many guys have these kind of numbers... |
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PTOTOUR |
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#66 Posted: 3/2/2012 9:48:45 PM  |
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#67 Posted: 3/3/2012 6:52:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Perhaps the examples chosen are not the best because what really separates Verlander, Weaver and Beckett (and a couple dozen more) from the Lowes, Mortons and Westbrooks of the world is not GB/FB ratio anyway. What separates them is K/BB ratio and strikeouts are, with very, very few exceptions, absolutely 0 productivity for the offense. My feeling is Lowe, Morton, Westbrook and guys like them are survivors, and can win on any given day, thanks to a very good GB/FB ratio, but not championship caliber, "carry you on my back" champions, like Verlander, Weaver, Beckett, Sabathia, Kershaw, Halladay, etc., etc.
HIT ON THE HEAD MY BROTHER... |
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#68 Posted: 3/3/2012 6:55:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
I'll refer you to the first post of this thread. And the first post of any thread I start for that matter.
HEY BRO HOW CAN YOU B SO NICE LOL???? DUDE THATS ONE PROBLEM I HAVE IS I GET OVERLY EXCITED WHEN PEOPLE JUST SPEAK NON SENSE.... ALSO DUDE THIS THREAD IS AMAZING... HELPFUL AND FIELD WITH LOGIC AND ANSWERS... FEEL ITS GONNA BA GREAT YR... ONE THING I DO NEED TO DO THIS YR IS STOP BETTING THOSE HEAVY FAVS....DIDNT LOSE TOO MANY BUT DID LOSE A FEW... |
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mylife23 |
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#69 Posted: 3/3/2012 10:09:46 PM
and for proof these more detailed stats in baseball are being accepted, just check out the stat graphics on say ESPN's national broadcasts..for hitters those graphics now include on base percentage and on base percentage plus slugging...
i wouldn't be shocked to see WHIP and FIP type stats for pitcher stat graphics soon as well ...great stuff
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GiLmo574 |
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#70 Posted: 3/4/2012 10:23:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
I use fangraphs for 95% of my sabermetric data collection. As far as futures go, I don't have any specific teams to recommend betting on one way or the other yet, but I do have some advice I can offer you. A lot of people say that future bets is about finding value and that's just not true. Without looking at the odds, pick who you think will win the AL, the NL and the World Series. Then look at what their price is and bet accordingly. Other than the public teams that Vegas puts a premium on, generally speaking they know more than you do, so the teams without value are the teams they're projecting to do the best. I'm not a big fan of betting Baseball futures until the playoffs start when there is enough current and relevant data to look at to really have an idea of who will perform best during the post season. One thing futures can be good at is giving a gambler lots of action during a season by betting a season win total. You end up with something to root for in 162 games. That's a lot of action for a little price. I'll have some thought on season win totals and future bets posted in a few weeks when I'm finished collecting and analyzing this years data. Good luck and enjoy Vegas! The first round of March Madness is the second biggest handle for Vegas casinos behind the Superbowl.
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#71 Posted: 3/4/2012 10:38:51 AM |
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tommyd222 |
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#72 Posted: 3/4/2012 10:46:55 AM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#73 Posted: 3/4/2012 3:12:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
I use baseball-reference a lot too.
That's my #1 site I use... |
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si1ly |
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#74 Posted: 3/4/2012 7:02:02 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by GiLmo574:
That's my #1 site I use...
I like the way fangraphs is organized a little more but I think there's more data available on baseball-reference. My models are built to pull stats right off of fangraphs so that's why I spend more time there. But they're both excellent resources. |
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si1ly |
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#75 Posted: 3/4/2012 7:07:42 PM |
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