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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: The Jays have massive potential
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#1
Posted: 2/16/2012 8:53:20 PM

Let me preface this by saying that I am usually the furthest thing from a optiomist when it comes to sports teams I like or that play in the city I live in. Lots of people in Toronto seem to like what the Leafs are doing but I am not one. Anyways I think this Jays team has massive potential and heres why.

They have arguably one of the best hitters in the game in Bautista.

They have a budding frontline starter in Ricky Romero.

They have one of the most exciting young players in the game in Brett Lawrie.

I know that alone doesnt gurantee success but not many teams in the league can say they have a legitmant MVP candidate, a all star pitcher and a top young rookie in the game.

Heres 3 guys that will prolly dictate just how dangerous the Jays can be next season.

Colby Rasmus - This guy was just a mess last season but with his half season with the Cards and also when he came to Toronto. He looked like a mentally broke player from the minute he arrived with the Jays but lets not forget that this was a young kid who was one of the better young players in the game in 2010. He put up a line of .275 avg, 23 homers and a .859 OPS while playing a good CF. Im not saying its a gurantee he returns to that form but the kid has pedigree and loads of talent. All reports leading into spring training say hes looking better then ever and has fixed up some little hitches in his swing.

Brett Cecil - Another guy that has a horrendous 2011. From the start of spring training there were reports that his velocity had dropped and that he came into camp way out of shape. He was bad to start the year and got sent down to AAA before being recalled. Im not the biggest Cecil fan but he was pretty solid in 2010 with a 15-7 record and a ERA around 4. Its said that hes lost 20 lbs this offseason and in the best shape of his career. If he can pitch close to 2010 form he will give the team a solid #4/5 starter.

Adam Lind - I really dont know what to expect out of this guy. He looked like a absolute monster in 2009 hitting .305, with 35 home runs and 115 rbi's. Then in 2010 he was a mess and last season he started off really hot but then got injured and when he returned he was brutal again. He's a good hitter but seems to either get injured or go thru long stretchs where he cant hit a thing. I'd be happy with a .270, 25 home runs and a respectable OPS and that would be decent behind Bautista in the lineup.

Then you have guys like Morrow who alot of people have been expecting to take the next step. He finished off 2010 strong but then got injured in spring training last season and when he came back looked rusty but finished off the 2011 season well. I think at some point he will become a bonifide #1b but just not sure when that will happen.

Escobar is a very good SS and just entering his prime.

Kelly Johnson is meh but he has the potential to have a good season

Arencibia wont hit for average but he should be good for 25 home runs and a good # of RBI's

One of Eric Thames or Travis Snider will be the everday LF'er. My money right now would be on Thames.

Encarnation actually showed to be a qaulity option at DH and it looks that now that he doesnt have to field he can focus more on what he does well.

The Bullpen is majorily improved in my opinion. Adding a young hard thrower in Sergio Santos, a good lefty specialist in Darren Oliver, a solid late inning option in Jason Frasor and a vet 8th inning/closer in Francisco Cordero should definitely have this bullpen better then last season where they blew as many games as any team in the league.

The starting pitching is where everything is going to be decided. Right now is looks like the starting 5 will be ROMERO - MORROW - ALVAREZ - CECIL - MCGOWEN. I'll be the first to admit that rotation is volotile and im really not sure how it will turn out but at least I can say theres a good amount of talent in there. Theres also the chance Drabek wins a spot and keep a eye open for one of the teams best pitching prospects Drew Hutchison.

I know most people will say "meh its still a 4th place team" and thats totally fair but I certainly think they have the potential to suprise alot of people if some of the teams question marks go in there favour. I have no idea what the teams win total will be but I have a strong feeling that they will win more games then Vegas has them pegged at. Even someone like Peter Gammonds says this team is a sleeping giant and soon to wake up. Add to it that either Travis d'Arnaud and Anthony Gose could be called up mid season and really this is the most exciting times Jays fans have seen in awhile.

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#2
Posted: 2/16/2012 10:21:45 PM
Give it a couple years.  They do have an excellent farm system.  Too soon this year though.
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#3
Posted: 2/16/2012 11:34:14 PM
jays probably 5-10 games over 500 i'd say this year. who is there closer?
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#4
Posted: 2/17/2012 1:00:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by metalbill:

jays probably 5-10 games over 500 i'd say this year. who is there closer?
the closer this year metal will be Sergio Santos
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#5
Posted: 2/17/2012 1:04:13 AM

delpo your Jays have a great gm. he got rid of rios and wells and didn't have to pay a cent A lot of pubilcations say the Jays have the best farm system in baseball. I love the bats. But my question is the starting pitching. I love romero and morrow is really good but man the other 3 as of now make me I have the Jays at 81 wins this year myself. I was suprised they didn't try to trade for Matt Garza or sign Oswalt or Edwin Jackson. If the Jays get consistent pitching they'll be headed fro good times. You got a lot to be excited about delpo. I know they have great pithcing in the minors but i would've liked to see them add a starter or 2 this offseason. Just my 2 cents. BOL delpo

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#6
Posted: 2/17/2012 2:17:15 AM
How the hell are the Jays going to win the East with this 3,4,5?

ALVAREZ - CECIL - MCGOWEN.

Answer: They won't.
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#7
Posted: 2/17/2012 2:22:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by metalbill:

jays probably 5-10 games over 500 i'd say this year. who is there closer?

Its Cordero now but will be Santos by the end of the year.
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#8
Posted: 2/17/2012 4:27:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

How the hell are the Jays going to win the East with this 3,4,5?

ALVAREZ - CECIL - MCGOWEN.

Answer: They won't.

Well Alvarez is a asbolute stud. He might not get the press of a kid like Lawrie, Montero or Pineda but he stepped in at the age of 21 and looked like a 10 year vet. Hes a massive ground ball pitcher with good velocity. I dont think he will struggle as much as some other young pitchers because he doesnt rely on a heavy fastball to succeed.

Cecil is a major question mark forsure. He could be anything from major crap, to very mediocre to actually solid. I would expect him to be somewhere in the middle. Even with his bad season last year nis numbers werent that bad for a #4/5 guy.

McGowen I expect literally nothing out of. I would be kind of suprised if hes actually in the starting 5 by July.

That is the starting 5 according to the manager right not but they also have guys like Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Deck McGuire who are all quality young pitchers that could either make the team out of ST or by midseason.

This is kind of what I was getting at tho. The team has massive "potential. I have no idea how the pitching staff will fare but if Romero pitchs like last year, Morrow pitchs like last season and a lil better and Alvarez maintains what he did then the rotation should be better then it currently looks. If Cecil has a good year it basically changes the entire dynamic of the starting 5.

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#9
Posted: 2/17/2012 4:28:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


Its Cordero now but will be Santos by the end of the year.

This is 100% wrong.

From every indication Santos is going to be the starter from day one. AA even mentioned when they signed Cordero that he gives them a guy they can pitch in the 8th inning along with some others.

Santos is the closer.

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#10
Posted: 2/17/2012 4:33:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


Its Cordero now but will be Santos by the end of the year.

"This year we will go in knowing that Sergio is our closer. And when you’ve got that defined commodity at the end it allows or a better probability for other guys to fall in line and bridge from the starter to Sergio to close out games. And having been with guys for a full year, I know them better—what Casey is capable of, what Jason is capable of. There’s more of a known commodity on my part too.”

Right from the coachs mouth

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#11
Posted: 2/17/2012 10:15:20 AM
With all due respect sir, the Rays and Yankees have the pitching, but your BJ's may challenge the BoSox for 3rd. I doubt they get there but I wish them well. I have loved them ever since the early 90's when they packed the stadium with 4 million fans two years in a row and Joe Carter won me a run line bet with that blast versus the Phillies. Probably the only time I ever bet a home team on the 9 inning run line but it came in winner. Most of the ingredients are in place, but that rotation (all 5 considered) would have to have a miracle year to ask for any more than 81 wins.
BOL
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#12
Posted: 2/17/2012 12:21:20 PM
Brett Lawrie
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#13
Posted: 2/17/2012 1:20:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KeyElement:

With all due respect sir, the Rays and Yankees have the pitching, but your BJ's may challenge the BoSox for 3rd. I doubt they get there but I wish them well. I have loved them ever since the early 90's when they packed the stadium with 4 million fans two years in a row and Joe Carter won me a run line bet with that blast versus the Phillies. Probably the only time I ever bet a home team on the 9 inning run line but it came in winner. Most of the ingredients are in place, but that rotation (all 5 considered) would have to have a miracle year to ask for any more than 81 wins.
BOL

No offence but that last sentence is beyond stupid.

Last season there starting 5 was a mess. They had both Drabek and Cecil who they were expecting big things out of have to be sent to the minors. Morrow was injured to start the year and they had JO JO Reyes (one of the worst pitchers in the leagu) pitching for them. There starting rotation was basically just as bad last season as you can get.

There bullpen blew as many games last season as any bullpen in the majors and still at the end up the day the team finished with ......................................

81 WINS

This is a better team this season on paper then last years. If they only win 81 games it will be a pretty big dissapointment.

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#14
Posted: 2/17/2012 4:40:13 PM
we need 3 more years. 2015 should be when we strike, our farm guys are still to young + will need a season or 2 under their belt in the pros before they can really flourish
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#15
Posted: 2/17/2012 5:16:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Delpo:




, a solid late inning option in Jason Frasor and a vet 8th inning/closer in Francisco Cordero should definitely have this bullpen better then last season where they blew as many games as any team in the league.



I assumed Cordero was the closer based on this statement.

I fully think Sergio Santos should be.
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#16
Posted: 2/17/2012 6:32:43 PM
While I Plan on going upto to T.O for a few games with the Family this season ,

I just can't see them catching the Yankees who improved their SP's and or Rays who are loaded with good arms 
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#17
Posted: 2/17/2012 10:05:43 PM
I can see them winning 90 gms

they ever gonna add that extra wildcard spot??
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#18
Posted: 2/17/2012 11:24:28 PM
yeah jaysvdub in my opinion it'll be for 2013.
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#19
Posted: 2/18/2012 1:07:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Delpo:

No offence but that last sentence is beyond stupid.

Last season there starting 5 was a mess. They had both Drabek and Cecil who they were expecting big things out of have to be sent to the minors. Morrow was injured to start the year and they had JO JO Reyes (one of the worst pitchers in the leagu) pitching for them. There starting rotation was basically just as bad last season as you can get.

There bullpen blew as many games last season as any bullpen in the majors and still at the end up the day the team finished with ......................................

81 WINS

This is a better team this season on paper then last years. If they only win 81 games it will be a pretty big dissapointment.

How is the starting rotation any better this year? They have the exact same options as they did last year, they haven't added anybody. It's a pretty big assumption to think that Morrow will finally find consistency and that Alvarez is necessarily the real deal. The other two spots are complete questions marks.

The bullpen, on paper, doesn't look all that much better than last year's did. Dotel, Francisco and Rauch were expected to provide stability last year just like Santos, Cordero, and Oliver are now. You never know what you'll get from these guys.

The lineup is exactly the same, except that you get Lawrie for a full year. I think that will definitely help out, but expecting Bautista to be the best offensive player in the majors again is asking a lot. Unless they get huge years from two of Lind, Johnson, and Rasmus, it'll be tough to make any noise.

All in all, I think they should be slightly improved, but not by much. A couple of years and they'll be contenders though.

 

 

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#20
Posted: 2/18/2012 6:07:21 AM
I have to agree. The line up looks pretty damn solid but their starting pitching is absolutely atrocious. EVERYTHING with the starting line up would have to go better than expected for the Jays to make a play off push... And perhaps Romero or Morrow gets injured? Then the Jays are in BIG trouble...

Anthopolous is a great GM but he really swung and missed this year when it came to fixing their rotation... such a shame
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#21
Posted: 2/18/2012 8:45:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jaysvdubwhat:

I can see them winning 90 gms

they ever gonna add that extra wildcard spot??



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#22
Posted: 2/18/2012 9:35:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Weekends:

How is the starting rotation any better this year? They have the exact same options as they did last year, they haven't added anybody. It's a pretty big assumption to think that Morrow will finally find consistency and that Alvarez is necessarily the real deal. The other two spots are complete questions marks.

The bullpen, on paper, doesn't look all that much better than last year's did. Dotel, Francisco and Rauch were expected to provide stability last year just like Santos, Cordero, and Oliver are now. You never know what you'll get from these guys.

The lineup is exactly the same, except that you get Lawrie for a full year. I think that will definitely help out, but expecting Bautista to be the best offensive player in the majors again is asking a lot. Unless they get huge years from two of Lind, Johnson, and Rasmus, it'll be tough to make any noise.

All in all, I think they should be slightly improved, but not by much. A couple of years and they'll be contenders though.

 

 

I'm assuming that Cecil pitchs better this season. Im assuming that Alvarez is a clear step above JO JO Reyes and that Romero could even go another step better. Sure those arent givens but again last seasons rotation as a hole was basically just as bad as you can get. There starting 5 is obiously the biggest question mark but thats not where the team is improved.

The bullpen easily looks better. For one they actually have a proven lefty specialist for a full season. The depth they can run out this season far exceeds last years and they have more ability to strike guys out. Also moving Villanueva back to relief and getting Frasor back will be a nice boost. I personally think its definitely better then last years but to each there own.

I dont think its far fetched whatsoever to think Bautista will be able to put up similar numbers. Sure they might drop a bit but he should still be a top 5 offensive player.

Lawrie for Nix is a MASSIVE upgrade. This cant even be stated eough how big of a upgrade this is. Your basically going from someone who was putting up almost like a .200 avg and around maybe a .650 OPS to someone who will prolly challenge .285 - .300 and a OPS around .800 - .850 or even more.

Thames > Juan Rivera. Thames last season hit 20 points higher and put up a OPS of around 70 points better then Rivera and thats all with a very bad first stint. Thames when recalled was easily a better bat in the lineup then Rivera.

Rasmus > Davis. Sure if you just look at the stats that Rasmus put up in the small sample size of games he was with the Jays someone might think otherwise but I hardly expect Rasmus to hit below the mendoza line. Hes easily a more talented player and a much better defender then Davis. To me this is easily another upgrade.

Theres 3 positions that I think are very much so improved on last years lineup.

The pitching is obviously the big question mark but if you jot down last years starting lineup from opening day and compare it to this years starting lineup, this years version is easily the more talented roster.

 

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#23
Posted: 2/18/2012 9:07:06 PM

At least they're going back to the old uniforms.

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#24
Posted: 2/19/2012 12:25:44 AM

I had the Jays last year over 76.5 wins and I also had Bautista for HR lead.. Both hit..

What is the number for wins this season? 81? I haven't looked.. But I def agree that they go over..

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#25
Posted: 2/19/2012 12:28:30 AM
wemovelines i have the Jays winning 81 games myself
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