i am in no means making a wagers on this game..just getting a thread started to see what everyone else is thiking..i personally if i was betting wud take the yanks (not a homer pick)
cc opened at -125 to justin verlander..if this was the beginning of the year id say to hammer the tigers becuase this line is short(like i did all 3 times cc opened up short at home to beckett this year and i made threads about it)..because earlier in the year..CC was the top dog..but cc has not been cc for quite some time now..verlander has been a god..IMO doc and cc up until last few months were the most expensive pitchers in baseball to back..but IMO cc's stock has dipped..and i think verlanders name carries a steeper price at this time.so -125 is a fair price..if anything a tad strong because verlander has only been a dog 2 times this year...that being said..the lines going up..and i know more are on the tigers..everyones obssessed with verlander and how well hes pitched..but he hasnt pitched very well vs the yanks..just this year he has made two starts vs them and only lasted 6 innings both games..if yanks get him out by the 6th again..tigers have no shot with that pen vs the yanks..even if the tigers do have a lead late and verlander goes 8..i will take my chances with the yanks vs valverde..sure valverdes been great..but he walks a tight rope more times than less..more times than less..the yanks will get to him..
i am in no means making a wagers on this game..just getting a thread started to see what everyone else is thiking..i personally if i was betting wud take the yanks (not a homer pick)
cc opened at -125 to justin verlander..if this was the beginning of the year id say to hammer the tigers becuase this line is short(like i did all 3 times cc opened up short at home to beckett this year and i made threads about it)..because earlier in the year..CC was the top dog..but cc has not been cc for quite some time now..verlander has been a god..IMO doc and cc up until last few months were the most expensive pitchers in baseball to back..but IMO cc's stock has dipped..and i think verlanders name carries a steeper price at this time.so -125 is a fair price..if anything a tad strong because verlander has only been a dog 2 times this year...that being said..the lines going up..and i know more are on the tigers..everyones obssessed with verlander and how well hes pitched..but he hasnt pitched very well vs the yanks..just this year he has made two starts vs them and only lasted 6 innings both games..if yanks get him out by the 6th again..tigers have no shot with that pen vs the yanks..even if the tigers do have a lead late and verlander goes 8..i will take my chances with the yanks vs valverde..sure valverdes been great..but he walks a tight rope more times than less..more times than less..the yanks will get to him..
Yes, I'm a Homer. However, I like C.C tomorrow night. Yanks know they need this game 1 with Nova going on saturday. Verlander is great and hats off to him for an amazing season. But Friday night starts the real season. It's going to be one hell of a series.
Yes, I'm a Homer. However, I like C.C tomorrow night. Yanks know they need this game 1 with Nova going on saturday. Verlander is great and hats off to him for an amazing season. But Friday night starts the real season. It's going to be one hell of a series.
and when i say verlander hasnt pitched great..i just mean he hasnt pitched to the new standard he has created for himself..which is 8 innings or complete game...the yanks have made him look human..
and when i say verlander hasnt pitched great..i just mean he hasnt pitched to the new standard he has created for himself..which is 8 innings or complete game...the yanks have made him look human..
Yes, I'm a Homer. However, I like C.C tomorrow night. Yanks know they need this game 1 with Nova going on saturday. Verlander is great and hats off to him for an amazing season. But Friday night starts the real season. It's going to be one hell of a series.
im so excited for the game tomorrow..i feel like a kid on christmas eve who cant go to sleep becaue hes so exccited for christmas to come.. minutes will feel like hours until game time..LETS GOO YANKSS
Yes, I'm a Homer. However, I like C.C tomorrow night. Yanks know they need this game 1 with Nova going on saturday. Verlander is great and hats off to him for an amazing season. But Friday night starts the real season. It's going to be one hell of a series.
im so excited for the game tomorrow..i feel like a kid on christmas eve who cant go to sleep becaue hes so exccited for christmas to come.. minutes will feel like hours until game time..LETS GOO YANKSS
I actually think this line is short. I actually lined this one at about -140 or -145 for the Yanks. Look at some common opponents that both Verlander and Sabathia have had this season:
@ CWS (Peavy): Verlander -145, Sabathia -175
@ LAA (Haren): Verlander -115, Sabathia -140
I believe the books value Sabathia/Yanks around 20 to 25 cents more than Verlander/Tigers. That is exhibited in the above comparisons. Tack on an additional 15 to 20 cents or so for the Yanks being at home, and you get a line of around -140/+130 or -145/+135 for the Yankees. If people think that is absurd, consider that CC and the Yanks were -170 against David Price and the Rays in August.
I thought the opening line of -120 was way short. As I said, I see value in this line all the way up to about -140 for the home team.
I actually think this line is short. I actually lined this one at about -140 or -145 for the Yanks. Look at some common opponents that both Verlander and Sabathia have had this season:
@ CWS (Peavy): Verlander -145, Sabathia -175
@ LAA (Haren): Verlander -115, Sabathia -140
I believe the books value Sabathia/Yanks around 20 to 25 cents more than Verlander/Tigers. That is exhibited in the above comparisons. Tack on an additional 15 to 20 cents or so for the Yanks being at home, and you get a line of around -140/+130 or -145/+135 for the Yankees. If people think that is absurd, consider that CC and the Yanks were -170 against David Price and the Rays in August.
I thought the opening line of -120 was way short. As I said, I see value in this line all the way up to about -140 for the home team.
I actually think this line is short. I actually lined this one at about -140 or -145 for the Yanks. Look at some common opponents that both Verlander and Sabathia have had this season:
@ CWS (Peavy): Verlander -145, Sabathia -175
@ LAA (Haren): Verlander -115, Sabathia -140
I believe the books value Sabathia/Yanks around 20 to 25 cents more than Verlander/Tigers. That is exhibited in the above comparisons. Tack on an additional 15 to 20 cents or so for the Yanks being at home, and you get a line of around -140/+130 or -145/+135 for the Yankees. If people think that is absurd, consider that CC and the Yanks were -170 against David Price and the Rays in August.
I thought the opening line of -120 was way short. As I said, I see value in this line all the way up to about -140 for the home team.
i see what your saying..but your not factoring in the present.i remember last time we disagreed too when i sed cc -150 in boston at -150 was strong vs lackey because of the way cc has struggled and lackey actually pitched well..and you said the line was short because cc was -170 last time..but when cc was -170 in boston he weent like 60 innings and 3 er..when cc was -150 he was struggling and lackey won 8 of his last 9...thats why i usually dont compare lines unless they are recent..because lines are all based on whats happening now..
cc was -140 openin day vs verlander..but to the public this is a different verlandr..the perception is all different..verlander is in mvp discussions..cc has been mediocre..i think the line cuda been higher..but -125 is fair considering verlander is usually -180 on the road..IMO verlander;s name brings moer to the table right now than cc..
i made 3 threads this year wen cc was -120 to beckett at home and i said cc shud never be -120 at home to anyone but the doc..and everyone told me im overanalzying and to hammer the yanks..the line steameed up and i gladly backed redsox..i had a suspicion the line was short becuase i thought it was short and the public was al over the yanks..
i thought cc shud be -130..but he opned at -125..and i see the public and most are all over verlander at -125..thsi says to me the line is right..if everyone was al over the yanks at -125 i would think different..but verlanders name is gold right now..i dont think this line is short..i just think that verlanders name brings more to the table now than cc does...
I actually think this line is short. I actually lined this one at about -140 or -145 for the Yanks. Look at some common opponents that both Verlander and Sabathia have had this season:
@ CWS (Peavy): Verlander -145, Sabathia -175
@ LAA (Haren): Verlander -115, Sabathia -140
I believe the books value Sabathia/Yanks around 20 to 25 cents more than Verlander/Tigers. That is exhibited in the above comparisons. Tack on an additional 15 to 20 cents or so for the Yanks being at home, and you get a line of around -140/+130 or -145/+135 for the Yankees. If people think that is absurd, consider that CC and the Yanks were -170 against David Price and the Rays in August.
I thought the opening line of -120 was way short. As I said, I see value in this line all the way up to about -140 for the home team.
i see what your saying..but your not factoring in the present.i remember last time we disagreed too when i sed cc -150 in boston at -150 was strong vs lackey because of the way cc has struggled and lackey actually pitched well..and you said the line was short because cc was -170 last time..but when cc was -170 in boston he weent like 60 innings and 3 er..when cc was -150 he was struggling and lackey won 8 of his last 9...thats why i usually dont compare lines unless they are recent..because lines are all based on whats happening now..
cc was -140 openin day vs verlander..but to the public this is a different verlandr..the perception is all different..verlander is in mvp discussions..cc has been mediocre..i think the line cuda been higher..but -125 is fair considering verlander is usually -180 on the road..IMO verlander;s name brings moer to the table right now than cc..
i made 3 threads this year wen cc was -120 to beckett at home and i said cc shud never be -120 at home to anyone but the doc..and everyone told me im overanalzying and to hammer the yanks..the line steameed up and i gladly backed redsox..i had a suspicion the line was short becuase i thought it was short and the public was al over the yanks..
i thought cc shud be -130..but he opned at -125..and i see the public and most are all over verlander at -125..thsi says to me the line is right..if everyone was al over the yanks at -125 i would think different..but verlanders name is gold right now..i dont think this line is short..i just think that verlanders name brings more to the table now than cc does...
i see what your saying..but your not factoring in the present.i remember last time we disagreed too when i sed cc -150 in boston at -150 was strong vs lackey because of the way cc has struggled and lackey actually pitched well..and you said the line was short because cc was -170 last time..but when cc was -170 in boston he weent like 60 innings and 3 er..when cc was -150 he was struggling and lackey won 8 of his last 9...thats why i usually dont compare lines unless they are recent..because lines are all based on whats happening now..
cc was -140 openin day vs verlander..but to the public this is a different verlandr..the perception is all different..verlander is in mvp discussions..cc has been mediocre..i think the line cuda been higher..but -125 is fair considering verlander is usually -180 on the road..IMO verlander;s name brings moer to the table right now than cc..
i made 3 threads this year wen cc was -120 to beckett at home and i said cc shud never be -120 at home to anyone but the doc..and everyone told me im overanalzying and to hammer the yanks..the line steameed up and i gladly backed redsox..i had a suspicion the line was short becuase i thought it was short and the public was al over the yanks..
i thought cc shud be -130..but he opned at -125..and i see the public and most are all over verlander at -125..thsi says to me the line is right..if everyone was al over the yanks at -125 i would think different..but verlanders name is gold right now..i dont think this line is short..i just think that verlanders name brings more to the table now than cc does...
Fair enough... I see where you are coming from.
However, I think what you said above is the very reason why you can find value. In my opinion, when I was comparing lines for Sabathia and Verlander to common opponents, those matchups were indeed awhile ago. However, really nothing has changed since those meetings. Both Verlander and Sabathia have been dominating all season. If those games were played today, would the lines really be any different? I have a hard time believing Haren would be more than a +110 home dog to Verlander even today.
As such, I tend to think too many people overvalue recent performance. It's why I try not to overreact to recent performance and try to evaluate the whole "body of work" so to speak. And because linesmakers factor in public perception (which is driven by recent performance), I'm able to take advantage and find value on plays when they open too low or too high.
In this case, public perception on Verlander is sky high so linesmakers know they don't have to set the opening line too high. But a look at the numbers just told me this line was way too low at open, which is evidenced by the fact that it got bet up almost immediately to -130.
i see what your saying..but your not factoring in the present.i remember last time we disagreed too when i sed cc -150 in boston at -150 was strong vs lackey because of the way cc has struggled and lackey actually pitched well..and you said the line was short because cc was -170 last time..but when cc was -170 in boston he weent like 60 innings and 3 er..when cc was -150 he was struggling and lackey won 8 of his last 9...thats why i usually dont compare lines unless they are recent..because lines are all based on whats happening now..
cc was -140 openin day vs verlander..but to the public this is a different verlandr..the perception is all different..verlander is in mvp discussions..cc has been mediocre..i think the line cuda been higher..but -125 is fair considering verlander is usually -180 on the road..IMO verlander;s name brings moer to the table right now than cc..
i made 3 threads this year wen cc was -120 to beckett at home and i said cc shud never be -120 at home to anyone but the doc..and everyone told me im overanalzying and to hammer the yanks..the line steameed up and i gladly backed redsox..i had a suspicion the line was short becuase i thought it was short and the public was al over the yanks..
i thought cc shud be -130..but he opned at -125..and i see the public and most are all over verlander at -125..thsi says to me the line is right..if everyone was al over the yanks at -125 i would think different..but verlanders name is gold right now..i dont think this line is short..i just think that verlanders name brings more to the table now than cc does...
Fair enough... I see where you are coming from.
However, I think what you said above is the very reason why you can find value. In my opinion, when I was comparing lines for Sabathia and Verlander to common opponents, those matchups were indeed awhile ago. However, really nothing has changed since those meetings. Both Verlander and Sabathia have been dominating all season. If those games were played today, would the lines really be any different? I have a hard time believing Haren would be more than a +110 home dog to Verlander even today.
As such, I tend to think too many people overvalue recent performance. It's why I try not to overreact to recent performance and try to evaluate the whole "body of work" so to speak. And because linesmakers factor in public perception (which is driven by recent performance), I'm able to take advantage and find value on plays when they open too low or too high.
In this case, public perception on Verlander is sky high so linesmakers know they don't have to set the opening line too high. But a look at the numbers just told me this line was way too low at open, which is evidenced by the fact that it got bet up almost immediately to -130.
However, I think what you said above is the very reason why you can find value. In my opinion, when I was comparing lines for Sabathia and Verlander to common opponents, those matchups were indeed awhile ago. However, really nothing has changed since those meetings. Both Verlander and Sabathia have been dominating all season. If those games were played today, would the lines really be any different? I have a hard time believing Haren would be more than a +110 home dog to Verlander even today.
As such, I tend to think too many people overvalue recent performance. It's why I try not to overreact to recent performance and try to evaluate the whole "body of work" so to speak. And because linesmakers factor in public perception (which is driven by recent performance), I'm able to take advantage and find value on plays when they open too low or too high.
In this case, public perception on Verlander is sky high so linesmakers know they don't have to set the opening line too high. But a look at the numbers just told me this line was way too low at open, which is evidenced by the fact that it got bet up almost immediately to -130.
thats fair..i admitted i thought it was a bit short when it openeed but i thought it had to do with the direction both pitchers have been going..verlander has been a god..and cc has been mediocre..tigers have also been playing better..what made me think it wasnt short was the fact that despite cc opening at -125..the majjority is still backing the tigers..so thats what made me think the line was right on..
i personally think the brewers line opned very short..gallardo opened at -120 at home to kennedy? kennedy hasnt gotten respect by linesmakers all year all of the sudden it starts now? i thnk dbags take down game one..
However, I think what you said above is the very reason why you can find value. In my opinion, when I was comparing lines for Sabathia and Verlander to common opponents, those matchups were indeed awhile ago. However, really nothing has changed since those meetings. Both Verlander and Sabathia have been dominating all season. If those games were played today, would the lines really be any different? I have a hard time believing Haren would be more than a +110 home dog to Verlander even today.
As such, I tend to think too many people overvalue recent performance. It's why I try not to overreact to recent performance and try to evaluate the whole "body of work" so to speak. And because linesmakers factor in public perception (which is driven by recent performance), I'm able to take advantage and find value on plays when they open too low or too high.
In this case, public perception on Verlander is sky high so linesmakers know they don't have to set the opening line too high. But a look at the numbers just told me this line was way too low at open, which is evidenced by the fact that it got bet up almost immediately to -130.
thats fair..i admitted i thought it was a bit short when it openeed but i thought it had to do with the direction both pitchers have been going..verlander has been a god..and cc has been mediocre..tigers have also been playing better..what made me think it wasnt short was the fact that despite cc opening at -125..the majjority is still backing the tigers..so thats what made me think the line was right on..
i personally think the brewers line opned very short..gallardo opened at -120 at home to kennedy? kennedy hasnt gotten respect by linesmakers all year all of the sudden it starts now? i thnk dbags take down game one..
On the Yanks myself hitterno. Think home field is too important in this series.
not betting the game..just seeing wha others are thinking.just getting a debate going...goodluck on the yanks..hopefuly they dont let anyone down tonght
On the Yanks myself hitterno. Think home field is too important in this series.
not betting the game..just seeing wha others are thinking.just getting a debate going...goodluck on the yanks..hopefuly they dont let anyone down tonght
Idk I think the Tigers are just on fire right now... I mean Verlander is and Valverde is gold.... I think the Tiger's bats are hitting well enough too that if Verlander can hold down the yanks for a few innings then the Tigers might get far enough ahead to pull it off.... Just my opinion and I also probably won't be betting on this game but who knows that may change come gametime
Idk I think the Tigers are just on fire right now... I mean Verlander is and Valverde is gold.... I think the Tiger's bats are hitting well enough too that if Verlander can hold down the yanks for a few innings then the Tigers might get far enough ahead to pull it off.... Just my opinion and I also probably won't be betting on this game but who knows that may change come gametime
Idk I think the Tigers are just on fire right now... I mean Verlander is and Valverde is gold.... I think the Tiger's bats are hitting well enough too that if Verlander can hold down the yanks for a few innings then the Tigers might get far enough ahead to pull it off.... Just my opinion and I also probably won't be betting on this game but who knows that may change come gametime
thats always the case with most us degenerates
but i wont be betting this game..ive got enough invested just as a fan..
Idk I think the Tigers are just on fire right now... I mean Verlander is and Valverde is gold.... I think the Tiger's bats are hitting well enough too that if Verlander can hold down the yanks for a few innings then the Tigers might get far enough ahead to pull it off.... Just my opinion and I also probably won't be betting on this game but who knows that may change come gametime
thats always the case with most us degenerates
but i wont be betting this game..ive got enough invested just as a fan..
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