Went 4-1 yesterday in my first real card in a few weeks. 5 outs away from a perfect day and then the M's get back to back homers in the 8th. Pretty flukey way for the M's to get a win.
Tigers/Yanks Parlay +122:
Leg A) I would never lay -280 on a baseball team alone on principle, but in a two teamer it's tolerable. I do expect Verlander to dominate. He has been awesome all year, and very consistent. He also already took the Twins down handily in Minny. Meanwhile Blackburn has given up 4 or more in 3 of his last 4 and 7 of his last 10 starts. He's been bad outside of Minny all year and been pretty bad either way since late June. Detroit lit him up last time out and his advanced stats are indicative of him improving.
Leg B) I love the Yanks today. They are in the top 5 in just about every offensive category overall, and do better against lefties and have been especially hot in August. This is a team that should win every single game at against a not absolutely top tier lefty right now. Offensively, the Royals are slightly ahead of the middle of the pack in most regards. They pretty much a neutral factor when considering this game. Nova gets guys to hit ground balls 55% of the time, which is always something I like. And he's been especially solid lately. I also love the fact that his away ERA is 2.81 (versus 4.62 at home). He's earned his 11-4 record. Something else I like about him is that he seems to do at least a little better when facing a team for the second time. Duffy meanwhile has some advanced numbers I really like. He has 4.41 BB/9, and 1.24 HR/9. Against the team with the most walks and home runs in the league, this is just a wonderful thing.
Ok that write-up took longer than I meant it to, and now I don't have time to do the others.
Went 4-1 yesterday in my first real card in a few weeks. 5 outs away from a perfect day and then the M's get back to back homers in the 8th. Pretty flukey way for the M's to get a win.
Tigers/Yanks Parlay +122:
Leg A) I would never lay -280 on a baseball team alone on principle, but in a two teamer it's tolerable. I do expect Verlander to dominate. He has been awesome all year, and very consistent. He also already took the Twins down handily in Minny. Meanwhile Blackburn has given up 4 or more in 3 of his last 4 and 7 of his last 10 starts. He's been bad outside of Minny all year and been pretty bad either way since late June. Detroit lit him up last time out and his advanced stats are indicative of him improving.
Leg B) I love the Yanks today. They are in the top 5 in just about every offensive category overall, and do better against lefties and have been especially hot in August. This is a team that should win every single game at against a not absolutely top tier lefty right now. Offensively, the Royals are slightly ahead of the middle of the pack in most regards. They pretty much a neutral factor when considering this game. Nova gets guys to hit ground balls 55% of the time, which is always something I like. And he's been especially solid lately. I also love the fact that his away ERA is 2.81 (versus 4.62 at home). He's earned his 11-4 record. Something else I like about him is that he seems to do at least a little better when facing a team for the second time. Duffy meanwhile has some advanced numbers I really like. He has 4.41 BB/9, and 1.24 HR/9. Against the team with the most walks and home runs in the league, this is just a wonderful thing.
Ok that write-up took longer than I meant it to, and now I don't have time to do the others.
Went 4-1 yesterday in my first real card in a few weeks. 5 outs away from a perfect day and then the M's get back to back homers in the 8th. Pretty flukey way for the M's to get a win.
Tigers/Yanks Parlay +122:
Leg A) I would never lay -280 on a baseball team alone on principle, but in a two teamer it's tolerable. I do expect Verlander to dominate. He has been awesome all year, and very consistent. He also already took the Twins down handily in Minny. Meanwhile Blackburn has given up 4 or more in 3 of his last 4 and 7 of his last 10 starts. He's been bad outside of Minny all year and been pretty bad either way since late June. Detroit lit him up last time out and his advanced stats are NOT indicative of him improving.
Leg B) I love the Yanks today. They are in the top 5 in just about every offensive category overall, and do better against lefties and have been especially hot in August. This is a team that should win every single game at against a not absolutely top tier lefty right now. Offensively, the Royals are slightly ahead of the middle of the pack in most regards. They pretty much a neutral factor when considering this game. Nova gets guys to hit ground balls 55% of the time, which is always something I like. And he's been especially solid lately. I also love the fact that his away ERA is 2.81 (versus 4.62 at home). He's earned his 11-4 record. Something else I like about him is that he seems to do at least a little better when facing a team for the second time. Duffy meanwhile has some advanced numbers I really like. He has 4.41 BB/9, and 1.24 HR/9. Against the team with the most walks and home runs in the league, this is just a wonderful thing.
Ok that write-up took longer than I meant it to, and now I don't have time to do the others.
Went 4-1 yesterday in my first real card in a few weeks. 5 outs away from a perfect day and then the M's get back to back homers in the 8th. Pretty flukey way for the M's to get a win.
Tigers/Yanks Parlay +122:
Leg A) I would never lay -280 on a baseball team alone on principle, but in a two teamer it's tolerable. I do expect Verlander to dominate. He has been awesome all year, and very consistent. He also already took the Twins down handily in Minny. Meanwhile Blackburn has given up 4 or more in 3 of his last 4 and 7 of his last 10 starts. He's been bad outside of Minny all year and been pretty bad either way since late June. Detroit lit him up last time out and his advanced stats are NOT indicative of him improving.
Leg B) I love the Yanks today. They are in the top 5 in just about every offensive category overall, and do better against lefties and have been especially hot in August. This is a team that should win every single game at against a not absolutely top tier lefty right now. Offensively, the Royals are slightly ahead of the middle of the pack in most regards. They pretty much a neutral factor when considering this game. Nova gets guys to hit ground balls 55% of the time, which is always something I like. And he's been especially solid lately. I also love the fact that his away ERA is 2.81 (versus 4.62 at home). He's earned his 11-4 record. Something else I like about him is that he seems to do at least a little better when facing a team for the second time. Duffy meanwhile has some advanced numbers I really like. He has 4.41 BB/9, and 1.24 HR/9. Against the team with the most walks and home runs in the league, this is just a wonderful thing.
Ok that write-up took longer than I meant it to, and now I don't have time to do the others.
I like them all Werk! I also agree BTW with taking a juiced line with a rather comfortable risk (never say sure thing right.. ) and adding value with a 2 team parlay!
I am also looking at Matusz as a possible value dog (some of value has been taken away) but I like the trend (A's losing last 4) and I know Matusz is a better pitcher than he has been throwing this year..???
I like them all Werk! I also agree BTW with taking a juiced line with a rather comfortable risk (never say sure thing right.. ) and adding value with a 2 team parlay!
I am also looking at Matusz as a possible value dog (some of value has been taken away) but I like the trend (A's losing last 4) and I know Matusz is a better pitcher than he has been throwing this year..???
MGD, yeah, NOTHING'S a sure thing, so reducing the investment needed to take the plays i like best is a pretty solid way to take advantage.
As far as Matusz goes, I think just about anyone is better than the stats he's put up this year. I just do not trust him at all. The only good news is that his last decent game was against the A's. Moscoso's not bad though. I'd say the odds are right about where I'd put them, and that is just a no play for me.
MGD, yeah, NOTHING'S a sure thing, so reducing the investment needed to take the plays i like best is a pretty solid way to take advantage.
As far as Matusz goes, I think just about anyone is better than the stats he's put up this year. I just do not trust him at all. The only good news is that his last decent game was against the A's. Moscoso's not bad though. I'd say the odds are right about where I'd put them, and that is just a no play for me.
kcal, quite the coincidence...hopefully a good day for both of us
tressel, i don't know what you're talking about.
I'm glad you hit your parlay, and congratulation on the solid night. However if you think because you parlay a -280 favorite that you're avoiding the chalk then you should stop betting. That price is factored into the final payoff.
kcal, quite the coincidence...hopefully a good day for both of us
tressel, i don't know what you're talking about.
I'm glad you hit your parlay, and congratulation on the solid night. However if you think because you parlay a -280 favorite that you're avoiding the chalk then you should stop betting. That price is factored into the final payoff.
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