mlb snippets for friday

Question

This is just a little experiment. These are just a very quick overviews of the games I come up with that I use in my initial capping process and I thought I might as well post them. Alot of the generalized statements I make are very subjective based on a quick overview of stats (both standard and advanced) A certain stat may carry more weight with me than someone else. Please know that these are very, very early leans. Obviously, much more in-depth analysis is needed before deciding on a play. If you are reading this and you like it or think its something you could use to help you in your capping, just post a or etc so I wont waste my time in the future

Fri 5/27
Early Game:
Pit@Chc -105 and (OFF)
Doug Davis' ERA is deceiving (has nice FIP and xFIP but small sample size this year), High strike out pitcher, but he has always struggled with control. Correia is very avg pitcher (Low K/9 but also low BB/9) but has had some success against Cubs current lineup. Davis has also very good success against Pitt apposing lineup. Cubs have much better bats. Bullpen advantage: Pirates by alot.
Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Leans: Definitely will look at the Under when line comes out.

Late games:
BOS@DET -110 and 9.0
Both pitchers have been pitching relatively well this year. Porcello struggles against Leftys, Boston has plenty of those. Both pitchers have been hit well by the opposing current lineups. Both offenses are potent, Boston on FIRE /Advantage Boston w/ bats. Tigers have horrible pen. Homer/under ump behind the plate.
BOS are 11-3 in Wakefields last 14 starts vs. DET.
BOS are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Detroit.
Leans: Lean to the Over but dont like the ump, probably would take it @ 8.5 and small lean to Boston

*more to come as time permits

5t4r5align · Answer

This is just a little experiment. These are just a very quick overviews of the games I come up with that I use in my initial capping process and I thought I might as well post them. Alot of the generalized statements I make are very subjective based on a quick overview of stats (both standard and advanced) A certain stat may carry more weight with me than someone else. Please know that these are very, very early leans. Obviously, much more in-depth analysis is needed before deciding on a play. If you are reading this and you like it or think its something you could use to help you in your capping, just post a or etc so I wont waste my time in the future

Fri 5/27
Early Game:
Pit@Chc -105 and (OFF)
Doug Davis' ERA is deceiving (has nice FIP and xFIP but small sample size this year), High strike out pitcher, but he has always struggled with control. Correia is very avg pitcher (Low K/9 but also low BB/9) but has had some success against Cubs current lineup. Davis has also very good success against Pitt apposing lineup. Cubs have much better bats. Bullpen advantage: Pirates by alot.
Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Leans: Definitely will look at the Under when line comes out.

Late games:
BOS@DET -110 and 9.0
Both pitchers have been pitching relatively well this year. Porcello struggles against Leftys, Boston has plenty of those. Both pitchers have been hit well by the opposing current lineups. Both offenses are potent, Boston on FIRE /Advantage Boston w/ bats. Tigers have horrible pen. Homer/under ump behind the plate.
BOS are 11-3 in Wakefields last 14 starts vs. DET.
BOS are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Detroit.
Leans: Lean to the Over but dont like the ump, probably would take it @ 8.5 and small lean to Boston

*more to come as time permits

neonkion · Answer

pirates are a better road than home team and have dominated the cubbies 10-5 last year and 2-1 this year at wrigley

5t4r5align · Answer

thanks for the input

5t4r5align · Answer

all thoughts, opinions, contributions, stats, trend etc. are more than welcome

p4l · Answer

hey man... i was wondering why exactely u are leaning under on pit and chc under??

both the teams last 3 starts have been bad.. really bad.. they have allowed a total of 37 hits on 25 innings.. on top of that.. both pitchers have a whip of higher then 1.5 the last three games. and an era of over 6 for both. Also, not to mention the cubs bull pens era for the past three games is 4.26.

Also, just found some trends for over:

Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 vs. National League Central.
Over is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 on grass.
Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 Friday games.
Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

p4l · Answer

as for the boston lean.. would it be a play eventhough porcello has been better then outstanding his past three starts?

p4l · Answer

just my input.. not trying to go agianst u man

5t4r5align · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by p4l]  hey man... i was wondering why exactely u are leaning under on pit and chc under?? &#xD;&#xA;both the teams last 3 starts have been bad.. really bad.. they have allowed a total of 37 hits on 25 innings.. on top of that.. both pitchers have a whip of higher then 1.5 the last three games. and an era of over 6 for both. Also, not to mention the cubs bull pens era for the past three games is 4.26.&#xD;&#xA;Also, just found some trends for over:&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 vs. National League Central. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 10-1 in Cubs last 11 during game 1 of a series. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 on grass. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 home games. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 overall. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 Friday games. &#xD;&#xA;Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.&#xD;&#xA;  [/Quote]ERAs have their value but can be deceiving. Both these pitchers have low xFIPs, both pitchers have done well against opposing lineups (VERY important imo) Corria hardly walks anyone.Davis can strike out guys when he gets in jams.  Still have a lot to evaluate yet before ever making it an official play.  As for trends, I definitely believe they have value (some more than others) but they are probably last on my list of things to consider.

5t4r5align · Answer

Possibly.. very weak lean right now, most likely a pass.

p4l · Answer

what do u think bout the cle ml and ari ml?

feeling like ari has been on fire recently and against houston they are almost a for sure win.. and cle get back on track with their ace on the mound and coming off a dissapointing series against bos

thisguyiswise · Answer

never play unders but would be scared shitless with doug davis and a regressing correia

those that wish to play the tigers may want to refer to my thread on what a streaky team this is, they could just as easily lose their next 4 in a row as win tomorrow. and red sox are raking

MatriXX · Answer

GL...

5t4r5align · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by p4l] &#xD;&#xA;what do u think bout the cle ml and ari ml?&#xD;&#xA;feeling like ari has been on fire recently and against houston they are almost a for sure win.. and cle get back on track with their ace on the mound and coming off a dissapointing series against bos&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Haven&#x27;t had a chance to look into any other games yet today. But those sound like good reasons to look into those games &#xD;&#xA;Most likely today, I will be tailing other strong cappers.  I really don&#x27;t think I&#x27;ll have time to do much on my own today

bodio · Answer

Hey buddy,I also used to think that pitcher&#x27;s history against a batter (lineup) is important, but I&#x27;m reading a book right now which a member here at covers recommended, and interestingly enough, there is NO correlation, especially since majority of sample-sizes are so small! (You need hundreds if not a thousand AB&#x27;s from ONE batter vs ONE pitcher to start seeing some correlation and that&#x27;s just not feasible) .  It&#x27;s all about figuring out batters&#x27; long-term skill and comparing it to pitcher&#x27;s long-term skill. (I usually look at current and possibly last year --  that&#x27;s long-term to me.  Going back further is iffy since there&#x27;s just way too many variables and &#x27;luck&#x27; that is involved) This has actually simplified baseball handicapping for me.  Figured I&#x27;d share, since I was also under the impression that pitcher vs batters results have some sort of statistical significance.  Well, that&#x27;s really not the case.

5t4r5align · Answer

Thanks Bodio!  Youre input is always appreciated.  So do you think batter vs pitcher stats are even worth looking at then?  It just seems so intuitive to me that if/when a pitcher struggled with a certain batter or vice versa, there is something to that.  I understand most sample sizes are extremely small and in statistics you need massive sample sizes to even think about drawing any sort of conclusion from them.  Do you mind sharing the title of the book you are reading?

5t4r5align · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by thisguyiswise] never play unders but would be scared shitless with doug davis and a regressing correia&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;those that wish to play the tigers may want to refer to my thread on what a streaky team this is, they could just as easily lose their next 4 in a row as win tomorrow.  and red sox are raking &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;good points

bodio · Answer

NO.  don&#x27;t waste your time.  There just isn&#x27;t enough of a sample size between each individual pitcher and batter.  It&#x27;s called: "the BOOK.  Playing the percentages in baseball"

5t4r5align · Answer

Thanks again Bodio.

5t4r5align · Answer

Well... we can scratch my lean to the under on the Cubs game since my lean was mostly based on the success of the pitchers against the current linups.

mlb snippets for friday

Hot Forum Topics