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[MLB Betting] Topic: Bodio's MLB Sun 05/22 |
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bodio |
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#1 Posted: 5/22/2011 12:59:43 PM 2011 MLB Record:
60 - 44 @ 57% for +11.87 Units
Sun, 05/22
#1: Washington Nationals -105
Zimmermann
has had 10 days off prior to this start so he should be well rested
here. He has a 2.69 FIP (19th best) and 3.75 xFIP (#74). His 3.18 K/BB
ratio is very solid as he's holding opponents to .253 BA and 1.23 WHIP.
Tillman has a FIP of 3.49 (#56) and xFIP of 4.56 (#134th). His K/BB
ratio is only 1.73, while the opponents hit .285 off him with 1.55 WHIP.
Tillman is coming off a 5-inning outing, where he was pulled early due
to some back-tightness. Supposedly he's fine today, but I wouldn't be
surprised if he only went 5 in this one as well. That's where the real
differentiator comes into play: bullpens. In the past week or so,
Nationals BP has appeared in 15 innings with a 1.17 ERA and 2.46 FIP.
Baltimore pen pitched 27 innings (much more over-worked) in the same
time span with a 8.23 ERA and 6.46 FIP. Both offenses have been very
hot lately, but I'll back a team with a better overall pitching in this
one.
#2: St Louis Cardinals -166
Well,
it's not often when you get one team that is superior in all 3 factors:
starting pitching, hitting, and bullpen. Garcia is a tremendous
pitcher with 2.29 FIP (#6th best) and 2.83 xFIP (#10th). He has a
tremendous 4.08 K/BB ratio with opponents batting .211 off him this
year. O'Sullivan comes in with a FIP of 4.49 (#109) and xFIP of 5.05
(#149). His K/BB ratio of 0.89 (below 1) shows what kind of a mediocre
pitcher he is. In his last 2 starts he has given up 10 ER's, 2 HR's,
and 14 hits, in only 11 innings pitched. He had a 2 K's to 4 BB's in
those starts. Against a potent Cards lineup that is getting Berkman
back today I expect O'Sullivan to struggle once again. I don't see
Garcia having the same problem against a lineup averaging 1.9 rpg in
their last 7. Even if O'Sullivan holds the Cards down, Royals bullpen,
which has an ERA of 8.20 in the last week in 26.1 innings of work,
should be good for 3 runs or so in the back 4 innings. In comparison,
Cards bullpen has an ERA of 0.96 in the last week with only 9.1 innings
of work. Better starting pitching, better hitting, and better bullpen
-- that translates to confident 'chalk' play, even on the road.
#3: UNDER 6 SEA/SD -127
Hernandez
vs Stauffer in this one. Both have FIP's and xFIP's below 3. Both
have positive E-F's (+.60 for Felix / +1.02 or Stauffer) thus indicating
positive regression. Both are going against lineups that are
struggling to score runs. Since this game is played by NL rules, the
pitchers will be hitting. I expect both to come to bat at least 3
times, thus effectively providing us with 6 'automatic' outs in this one
(1 full inning). I don't see 6 runs being scored in a pretty-much an
'8' inning game between these 2 teams, with these starting pitchers on
the mound. Under is the play.
good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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chvatalas |
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#2 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:00:30 PM
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#3 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:00:52 PM  |
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#4 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:01:53 PM
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#5 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:03:23 PM |
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#6 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:03:50 PM  |
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#7 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:03:52 PM |
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#8 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:03:57 PM
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#9 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:04:57 PM
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#10 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:06:45 PM |
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#11 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:06:50 PM
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#12 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:07:48 PM |
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#13 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:15:38 PM
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#14 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:16:02 PM 
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#15 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:16:43 PM
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#16 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:17:27 PM |
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#17 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:17:30 PM |
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#18 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:21:58 PM |
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#19 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:24:38 PM
BOL Bodio
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#20 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:43:29 PM   |
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#21 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:50:45 PM |
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#22 Posted: 5/22/2011 1:59:15 PM |
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#23 Posted: 5/22/2011 2:07:47 PM
...but in regards to the KC bullpen stat, don't you think that is unfair? Take out the 14 run performance by Mazzaro, and they have been very serviceable over the last week.
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#24 Posted: 5/22/2011 3:30:26 PM |
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#25 Posted: 5/22/2011 4:00:38 PM
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