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[MLB Betting] Topic: Bodio's MLB Sat 04/30 |
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bodio |
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#1 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:50:16 PM 2011 MLB Record:
39 - 24 @ 62% for +13.27 Units
Sat, 04/30
#1: San Francisco Giants -126
A couple of trends for you guys:
*** Giants are 20-7 (74%) in the last couple of years after getting shut-out in a previous game
*** Giants are 55-44 (56%) against lefty starters
*** Nats are 29-50 (37%) against lefty starters
*** Giants are 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 meetings
*** Giants are 8-3 (73%) in the last 11 in Washington
Sanchez
has been pretty solid this year. He has a 10.61 K/9 ratio, 2.36 K/BB
ratio (still walks too many though), 2.65 FIP (#16th best) and 3.39 xFIP
(#32). His low LOB% of 67% (average is around 70%) and +0.57 E-F
suggests that he's bound to improve upon those numbers. Against a
Washington lineup that is batting .180 with OBP of .241 off him, and
coming off an 86 pitch outing, I expect him to be sharp today. Lannan,
on the other hand, has a mediocre 1.36 K/BB ratio, 4.35 FIP (#95th) and
4.34 xFIP (#96th). I know the Giants lineup is struggling right now,
but Lannan is not an overpowering pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if
they have success off him in the game. Either way, Lannan averages
around 5 innings per start. Once he departs, the Giants will face a
Nationals BP that has an ERA of 6.12 at home on the season. In 32
home-innings, they've given up 38 hits and 22 ER's. Giants bullpen is
actually top 3 in the league and there's a clear advantage there. I
don't expect this to be a Giants blow-out, but I see enough advantages
here, as well as some solid long-term trends, that warrant a play on Los
Gigantes!
#2: Chicago Cubs +114
'Advanced
stats' stud Garza is back on the mound. I've backed him last game, but
4 crucial errors did the Cubs in. I'm not going to repeat Garza's
stats but he's #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, and the #1 UNLUCKIEST pitcher so
far this season. His +2.86 E-F is the highest to the positive, thus I
expect him to improve his stats even more so going further. Why not
against an Arizona lineup that has never seen him before?
Either
way, I'm fading Kennedy in this one. Don't get me wrong, Kennedy is a
solid young pitcher. His FIP of 3.17 is 35th best and xFIP of 3.75 is
#58 in the majors. He has a very solid 3.25 K/BB ratio and Cubs hitters
are batting .196 off him with .255 OBP. I'm making this play because
Kennedy is coming off a 114 pitch outing. That's a lot for him. Last
year, he matched and/or exceeded this pitch-count 3 times. Here are the
results in subsequent games:
@ 116 pitches: 5 inn; 5 hits; 3 ER's; 2 HR's; 4 BB's; 2 K's (Lost 3-2)
@ 114 pitches: 6 inn; 9 hits; 6 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB; 6 K's (Lost 6-3)
@ 115 pitches: 5.2 inn; 9 hits; 7 ER's; 1 HR; 0 BB; 6 K's (Lost 9-4)
The
fact that he's had 14 to 5 K/BB ratio in those is not really
surprising, since Kennedy is a strike-out pitcher. But the fact that he
gave up 23 hits, 16 ER's, and 4 HR's in 16.2 innings is a fairly good
indicator of his struggles following a game where he exceeds his
'standard' pitch count. Throw in the fact that Kennedy has a pretty low
38% GB% and I wouldn't be surprised if Cubs got 3-4 runs off him, and a
HR or 2. Kennedy faced Cubs 2 times last year. In 14 innings against
them, he allowed 15 hits, 2 HR's, and 11 ER's. Today I don't expect him
to improve much on his 7.24 ERA against them. I'll gladly back the
Cubs at + odds tonight.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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BrownGem |
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#2 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:11 PM On it!
GL!! |
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5t4r5align |
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#3 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:25 PM  |
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jdukes0004 |
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#4 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:53:22 PM |
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saviola |
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#5 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:00 PM
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fmoe1 |
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#6 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:40 PM
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
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Badboyz8 |
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#7 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:44 PM 
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fmoe1 |
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#8 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:55 PM
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
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crapgame711 |
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#9 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:55:42 PM |
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ionutt79 |
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#10 Posted: 4/30/2011 2:56:57 PM  |
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cap10 |
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#11 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:03:17 PM  |
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misterstats |
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#12 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:05:15 PM
My Plays
Sorta worried about Josh Johnson's line movement from -133 to -123. Do you think FLA's a trap game because of JJ's past inefficiency at Great American?
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LasVegasLord |
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#13 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:06:55 PM
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mkbini |
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#14 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:07:21 PM Hey Bodio
What do you think about BoSox and Yankees tonight? |
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KktdocT |
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#15 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:21 PM |
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brent0887 |
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#16 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:54 PM |
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mkbini |
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#17 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:11:56 PM Hey Bodio
And do you think Florida is going to do it tonight. I see the line movement opposite to betting money |
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ManassaMauler |
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#18 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:19:42 PM |
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jacksup44 |
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#19 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:25:25 PM |
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mully07 |
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#20 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:41 PM Thanks Bodio! |
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SarahJPhilli |
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#21 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:44 PM 
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darkstar77 |
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#22 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:31:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli: Bodio VS HappyKane on Giants/Nationals.
Ya I'm torn on this one. I kind of like the Nasty Nats. |
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darkstar77 |
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#23 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:32:41 PM |
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AmDream08 |
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#24 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:33:25 PM |
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bluecrew08 |
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#25 Posted: 4/30/2011 3:45:00 PM |
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