Bodio's MLB Sat 04/30

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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Bodio's MLB Sat 04/30
bodio PM bodio
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:50:16 PM
2011 MLB Record:
39 - 24 @ 62% for +13.27 Units




Sat, 04/30

#1: San Francisco Giants -126


A couple of trends for you guys:
*** Giants are 20-7 (74%) in the last couple of years after getting shut-out in a previous game
*** Giants are 55-44 (56%) against lefty starters
*** Nats are 29-50 (37%) against lefty starters
*** Giants are 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 meetings
*** Giants are 8-3 (73%) in the last 11 in Washington

Sanchez has been pretty solid this year. He has a 10.61 K/9 ratio, 2.36 K/BB ratio (still walks too many though), 2.65 FIP (#16th best) and 3.39 xFIP (#32). His low LOB% of 67% (average is around 70%) and +0.57 E-F suggests that he's bound to improve upon those numbers. Against a Washington lineup that is batting .180 with OBP of .241 off him, and coming off an 86 pitch outing, I expect him to be sharp today. Lannan, on the other hand, has a mediocre 1.36 K/BB ratio, 4.35 FIP (#95th) and 4.34 xFIP (#96th). I know the Giants lineup is struggling right now, but Lannan is not an overpowering pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if they have success off him in the game. Either way, Lannan averages around 5 innings per start. Once he departs, the Giants will face a Nationals BP that has an ERA of 6.12 at home on the season. In 32 home-innings, they've given up 38 hits and 22 ER's. Giants bullpen is actually top 3 in the league and there's a clear advantage there. I don't expect this to be a Giants blow-out, but I see enough advantages here, as well as some solid long-term trends, that warrant a play on Los Gigantes!


#2: Chicago Cubs +114

'Advanced stats' stud Garza is back on the mound. I've backed him last game, but 4 crucial errors did the Cubs in. I'm not going to repeat Garza's stats but he's #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, and the #1 UNLUCKIEST pitcher so far this season. His +2.86 E-F is the highest to the positive, thus I expect him to improve his stats even more so going further. Why not against an Arizona lineup that has never seen him before?

Either way, I'm fading Kennedy in this one. Don't get me wrong, Kennedy is a solid young pitcher. His FIP of 3.17 is 35th best and xFIP of 3.75 is #58 in the majors. He has a very solid 3.25 K/BB ratio and Cubs hitters are batting .196 off him with .255 OBP. I'm making this play because Kennedy is coming off a 114 pitch outing. That's a lot for him. Last year, he matched and/or exceeded this pitch-count 3 times. Here are the results in subsequent games:

@ 116 pitches: 5 inn; 5 hits; 3 ER's; 2 HR's; 4 BB's; 2 K's (Lost 3-2)
@ 114 pitches: 6 inn; 9 hits; 6 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB; 6 K's (Lost 6-3)
@ 115 pitches: 5.2 inn; 9 hits; 7 ER's; 1 HR; 0 BB; 6 K's (Lost 9-4)

The fact that he's had 14 to 5 K/BB ratio in those is not really surprising, since Kennedy is a strike-out pitcher. But the fact that he gave up 23 hits, 16 ER's, and 4 HR's in 16.2 innings is a fairly good indicator of his struggles following a game where he exceeds his 'standard' pitch count. Throw in the fact that Kennedy has a pretty low 38% GB% and I wouldn't be surprised if Cubs got 3-4 runs off him, and a HR or 2. Kennedy faced Cubs 2 times last year. In 14 innings against them, he allowed 15 hits, 2 HR's, and 11 ER's. Today I don't expect him to improve much on his 7.24 ERA against them. I'll gladly back the Cubs at + odds tonight.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
BrownGem PM BrownGem
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:11 PM

On it! 

GL!!

5t4r5align PM 5t4r5align
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:25 PM
Let's do this!
jdukes0004 PM jdukes0004
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:53:22 PM
how about Florida with josh johnson? how did you miss that bodio. Why didn't you pick florida today? very interesting to me? Your thoughts would be appreciated.
saviola PM saviola
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:00 PM
Thanks Bodio! GL today!
fmoe1 PM fmoe1
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:40 PM
FYI Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval is out for a month with a broken wrist.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
Badboyz8 PM Badboyz8
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:44 PM
 GL
fmoe1 PM fmoe1
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:55 PM
FYI Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval is out for a month with a broken wrist.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
crapgame711 PM crapgame711
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:55:42 PM
Great write-up. 
ionutt79 PM ionutt79
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Posted: 4/30/2011 2:56:57 PM
cap10 PM cap10
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:03:17 PM
misterstats PM misterstats
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:05:15 PM
Thanks Bodio.  I'll add those two along w/ my 4 plays for Saturday.

My Plays

Sorta worried about Josh Johnson's line movement from -133 to -123.  Do you think FLA's a trap game because of JJ's past inefficiency at Great American?  

BOL today.

LasVegasLord PM LasVegasLord
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:06:55 PM
Good Luck Bodio.
mkbini PM mkbini
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:07:21 PM

Hey Bodio

What do you think about BoSox and Yankees tonight?

KktdocT PM KktdocT
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:21 PM
GL.
brent0887 PM brent0887
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:54 PM
GL bodio 
mkbini PM mkbini
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:11:56 PM

Hey Bodio

And do you think Florida is going to do it tonight. I see the line movement opposite to betting money

ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:19:42 PM
bol 
jacksup44 PM jacksup44
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:25:25 PM
Like the giants play, however I will lay off the cubbies.  GL to all.
mully07 PM mully07
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:41 PM

Thanks Bodio!

SarahJPhilli PM SarahJPhilli
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:44 PM
Bodio VS HappyKane on Giants/Nationals.
darkstar77 PM darkstar77
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:31:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

Bodio VS HappyKane on Giants/Nationals.

Ya I'm torn on this one. I kind of like the Nasty Nats.
darkstar77 PM darkstar77
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:32:41 PM
This thread has 1750 views in 50 minutes. 400 just in the last ten minutes. WTF.
AmDream08 PM AmDream08
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:33:25 PM
Bodio, just pm'd you. if you have a moment could you take a look at it? thanks
bluecrew08 PM bluecrew08
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Posted: 4/30/2011 3:45:00 PM
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