Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Bodio's MLB Sat 04/30
bodio send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bodio
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 7370
Location: Illinois
#1
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:50:16 PM
2011 MLB Record:
39 - 24 @ 62% for +13.27 Units




Sat, 04/30

#1: San Francisco Giants -126


A couple of trends for you guys:
*** Giants are 20-7 (74%) in the last couple of years after getting shut-out in a previous game
*** Giants are 55-44 (56%) against lefty starters
*** Nats are 29-50 (37%) against lefty starters
*** Giants are 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 meetings
*** Giants are 8-3 (73%) in the last 11 in Washington

Sanchez has been pretty solid this year. He has a 10.61 K/9 ratio, 2.36 K/BB ratio (still walks too many though), 2.65 FIP (#16th best) and 3.39 xFIP (#32). His low LOB% of 67% (average is around 70%) and +0.57 E-F suggests that he's bound to improve upon those numbers. Against a Washington lineup that is batting .180 with OBP of .241 off him, and coming off an 86 pitch outing, I expect him to be sharp today. Lannan, on the other hand, has a mediocre 1.36 K/BB ratio, 4.35 FIP (#95th) and 4.34 xFIP (#96th). I know the Giants lineup is struggling right now, but Lannan is not an overpowering pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if they have success off him in the game. Either way, Lannan averages around 5 innings per start. Once he departs, the Giants will face a Nationals BP that has an ERA of 6.12 at home on the season. In 32 home-innings, they've given up 38 hits and 22 ER's. Giants bullpen is actually top 3 in the league and there's a clear advantage there. I don't expect this to be a Giants blow-out, but I see enough advantages here, as well as some solid long-term trends, that warrant a play on Los Gigantes!


#2: Chicago Cubs +114

'Advanced stats' stud Garza is back on the mound. I've backed him last game, but 4 crucial errors did the Cubs in. I'm not going to repeat Garza's stats but he's #1 in FIP, #1 in xFIP, and the #1 UNLUCKIEST pitcher so far this season. His +2.86 E-F is the highest to the positive, thus I expect him to improve his stats even more so going further. Why not against an Arizona lineup that has never seen him before?

Either way, I'm fading Kennedy in this one. Don't get me wrong, Kennedy is a solid young pitcher. His FIP of 3.17 is 35th best and xFIP of 3.75 is #58 in the majors. He has a very solid 3.25 K/BB ratio and Cubs hitters are batting .196 off him with .255 OBP. I'm making this play because Kennedy is coming off a 114 pitch outing. That's a lot for him. Last year, he matched and/or exceeded this pitch-count 3 times. Here are the results in subsequent games:

@ 116 pitches: 5 inn; 5 hits; 3 ER's; 2 HR's; 4 BB's; 2 K's (Lost 3-2)
@ 114 pitches: 6 inn; 9 hits; 6 ER's; 1 HR; 1 BB; 6 K's (Lost 6-3)
@ 115 pitches: 5.2 inn; 9 hits; 7 ER's; 1 HR; 0 BB; 6 K's (Lost 9-4)

The fact that he's had 14 to 5 K/BB ratio in those is not really surprising, since Kennedy is a strike-out pitcher. But the fact that he gave up 23 hits, 16 ER's, and 4 HR's in 16.2 innings is a fairly good indicator of his struggles following a game where he exceeds his 'standard' pitch count. Throw in the fact that Kennedy has a pretty low 38% GB% and I wouldn't be surprised if Cubs got 3-4 runs off him, and a HR or 2. Kennedy faced Cubs 2 times last year. In 14 innings against them, he allowed 15 hits, 2 HR's, and 11 ER's. Today I don't expect him to improve much on his 7.24 ERA against them. I'll gladly back the Cubs at + odds tonight.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400

--------------------------------------------------------------
'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330



"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
quote
BrownGem
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BrownGem
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1499
Location: New York
#2
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:11 PM

On it! 

GL!!

quote
5t4r5align
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
5t4r5align
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 9543
Location: Virginia
#3
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:52:25 PM
Let's do this!
quote
jdukes0004 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdukes0004
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 972
Location: Virginia
#4
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:53:22 PM
how about Florida with josh johnson? how did you miss that bodio. Why didn't you pick florida today? very interesting to me? Your thoughts would be appreciated.
quote
saviola send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
saviola
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 96
Location:
#5
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:00 PM
Thanks Bodio! GL today!
quote
fmoe1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fmoe1
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 679
Location:
#6
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:40 PM
FYI Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval is out for a month with a broken wrist.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
quote
Badboyz8 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Badboyz8
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 2227
Location: Hong Kong
#7
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:44 PM
 GL
quote
fmoe1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
fmoe1
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2002
Posts: 679
Location:
#8
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:54:55 PM
FYI Kung Fu Panda Pablo Sandoval is out for a month with a broken wrist.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?entry_id=88082&tsp=1
quote
crapgame711 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
crapgame711
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 153
Location: Nevada
#9
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:55:42 PM
Great write-up. 
quote
ionutt79
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
ionutt79
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 950
Location: Romania
#10
Posted: 4/30/2011 2:56:57 PM
quote
cap10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cap10
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 310
Location:
#11
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:03:17 PM
quote
misterstats send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
misterstats
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 124
Location: California
#12
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:05:15 PM
Thanks Bodio.  I'll add those two along w/ my 4 plays for Saturday.

My Plays

Sorta worried about Josh Johnson's line movement from -133 to -123.  Do you think FLA's a trap game because of JJ's past inefficiency at Great American?  

BOL today.

quote
LasVegasLord
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LasVegasLord
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 16615
Location: Nevada
#13
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:06:55 PM
Good Luck Bodio.
quote
mkbini send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mkbini
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 1975
Location:
#14
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:07:21 PM

Hey Bodio

What do you think about BoSox and Yankees tonight?

quote
KktdocT
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KktdocT
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 63474
Location: United Kingdom
#15
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:21 PM
GL.
quote
brent0887
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
brent0887
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 18094
Location: New Hampshire
#16
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:09:54 PM
GL bodio 
quote
mkbini send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mkbini
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 1975
Location:
#17
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:11:56 PM

Hey Bodio

And do you think Florida is going to do it tonight. I see the line movement opposite to betting money

quote
ManassaMauler send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ManassaMauler
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 57472
Location: New York
#18
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:19:42 PM
bol 
quote
jacksup44
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jacksup44
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 545
Location: Connecticut
#19
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:25:25 PM
Like the giants play, however I will lay off the cubbies.  GL to all.
quote
mully07 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
mully07
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 219
Location: Ontario
#20
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:41 PM

Thanks Bodio!

quote
SarahJPhilli send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SarahJPhilli
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 10104
Location: United States
#21
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:28:44 PM
Bodio VS HappyKane on Giants/Nationals.
quote
darkstar77 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
darkstar77
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 224
Location: Illinois
#22
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:31:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SarahJPhilli:

Bodio VS HappyKane on Giants/Nationals.

Ya I'm torn on this one. I kind of like the Nasty Nats.
quote
darkstar77 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
darkstar77
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 224
Location: Illinois
#23
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:32:41 PM
This thread has 1750 views in 50 minutes. 400 just in the last ten minutes. WTF.
quote
AmDream08 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
AmDream08
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 98
Location: United States
#24
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:33:25 PM
Bodio, just pm'd you. if you have a moment could you take a look at it? thanks
quote
bluecrew08 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bluecrew08
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 2050
Location: United States
#25
Posted: 4/30/2011 3:45:00 PM
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.