| Author: |
[MLB Betting] Topic: 2011 Major League Baseball Totals |
|
AAABest |
 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#1 Posted: 4/14/2011 9:30:12 AM This is the beginning of a continuous thread here just playing MLB Totals throughout the year. There is enough data now to begin this process and I will update this thread on a daily basis. I use a developed model for these plays along with situational and weather related aspects..
You can expect to see aa larger portion of these plays to be UNDERS and I am sure that they will do very well. I will be back with today's card. |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#2 Posted: 4/14/2011 9:46:34 AM Please note that all plays will be for 1 Unit except for a rare occasion where we will play for 1.5 Units...First Play for today is below...DO NOT List pitchers on this play..
#911 Cardinals/Dodgers Over 6.5 |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#3 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:02:29 AM Play #2...
#904 Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 -115 |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#4 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:17:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AAABest:
Play #2...
#904 Brewers/Pirates Under 8.5 -115
This line just zoomed to 8 at a lot of books but 8.5's still out there. However, you probably need to hurry to get this one at the posted number. Both teams with poor lefty hitting numbers and bettors have recognized that.. |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#5 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:38:07 AM |
|
quote |
|
|
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#6 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:48:11 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AAABest:
Please note that all plays will be for 1 Unit except for a rare occasion where we will play for 1.5 Units...First Play for today is below...DO NOT List pitchers on this play..
#911 Cardinals/Dodgers Over 6.5
Note here that Kuroda has NOT Performed well after a large pitch count and a Cardinal Team Total OVER is worth a look.. |
|
quote |
|
stonepilot57 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 864
Location: Minnesota |
#7 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:55:58 AM  |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#8 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:12:40 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by stonepilot57:
GL on your season
Thanks and good luck to you as well.. |
|
quote |
|
JGallo1018 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SPORTSBETTING.AG | |
Veteran
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 1156
Location: New Jersey |
#9 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:14:21 AM 
BOL |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#10 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:28:35 AM Thanks Gallo....A low number here but let's not forget this is Oakland and let's know forget this park, and let's not forget that both teams are lefties poorly. High Vig here and as high aas -125. I got -122..
#920 Tigers/Athletics Under 7.5 -122 |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#11 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:48:07 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by AAABest:
Thanks Gallo....A low number here but let's not forget this is Oakland and let's know forget this park, and let's not forget that both teams are lefties poorly. High Vig here and as high aas -125. I got -122..
#920 Tigers/Athletics Under 7.5 -122
Just like the Mil/Pit Total, this line is moving down and is already 7 at some places. This is still a play at that number but extra 1/2 surely makes it better, even with the extra investment.. |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#12 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:57:34 AM |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#13 Posted: 4/14/2011 12:11:01 PM One more and probably done..Interesting here that ALL Books that I monitor has the number posted except The Greek. They have 8. Pretty sharp book right there.
#916 Twins/Rays Under 8.5 |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#14 Posted: 4/14/2011 1:16:40 PM Done today. Not going to wait on the 2nd Rockies/Mets game.
Back tomorrow.. |
|
quote |
|
LetEMride |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 3468
Location: California |
#15 Posted: 4/14/2011 1:45:31 PM what is the system that you use if you dont mind sharing. |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#16 Posted: 4/14/2011 1:54:41 PM The line move on this play puts me on this one so I am adding one...I am going to post -115 but I got -110 here. A couple books still hanging onto 8.5 and NO PLAY at that number.
#918 Mariners/Royals Under 9 -115 |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#17 Posted: 4/14/2011 2:06:04 PM It's not really a system and instead is a Computer Model I have developed. Each Park has a Medium Number. Weather can affect that up or down by as much as a run but usually no more than a 1/2 run and most of the time not at all..
Pitchers (Starters) are rated by previous pitch count, K/BB Ratio, Hits/Innings Ratio, HR/Innings Ratio, and as well a few other factors. Bullpens rated the same way as a group with recent performance added in, along with Innings worked..
I get a number based on these things with % Probables and I have a play up or down or nothing.. |
|
quote |
|
tinfoils |
RSI  |
Legend
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 34947
Location: |
#18 Posted: 4/14/2011 2:24:52 PM  |
|
quote |
|
bmcquilkin |
RSI  |
Veteran
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 1431
Location: California |
#19 Posted: 4/14/2011 4:25:48 PM |
|
quote |
|
bigzz |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 2134
Location: |
#20 Posted: 4/14/2011 4:28:26 PM   |
|
quote |
|
Bucci020 |
RSI |
Veteran
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 2938
Location: Pennsylvania |
#21 Posted: 4/14/2011 4:34:11 PM
|
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#22 Posted: 4/14/2011 4:54:08 PM |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#23 Posted: 4/14/2011 10:09:37 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by AAABest:
The line move on this play puts me on this one so I am adding one...I am going to post -115 but I got -110 here. A couple books still hanging onto 8.5 and NO PLAY at that number.
#918 Mariners/Royals Under 9 -115
Grrr..Rain Stoppage. Afraid of this and probably should have not made this play.. |
|
quote |
|
AAABest |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 205
Location: |
#24 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:52:56 PM If Tigers/A's Go UNDER it's a 4-0 Night with a NO PLAY on Seattle/KC Under. Tough break there...
Back in the morning...Bedtime for Bonzo.. |
|
quote |
|
IOWACAPPER |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Greek | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 41
Location: Iowa |
#25 Posted: 4/14/2011 11:57:21 PM
|
|
quote |