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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: NATS/BRAVES UNDER BACKERS BEWARE.....INFO
hammer22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 9/15/2010 9:43:51 AM
Under is 20-6-3 in the last 29 meetings and the over has hit only twice in 14 meetings between these 2 teams this year.....BUT

In ALL 6 starts this year for Minor the total has gone OVER

Here is ATL run support for Minor starts this year....
8-6-9-16-10-4 for an avg. of 8.83 runs a game.....for some reason when Minor pitches the Braves light the scoreboard up and the total has gone OVER.

Last time Minor pitched against the Nationals the Braves won 10-2.

ATL as a home favorite of -175 to -200 is 8-3 to the OVER this year and average 5.8 runs in day games

Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Braves are 6-0 in their last 6 games with Nauert behind home plate.

Nationals are 0-7 in their last 7 games with Nauert behind home plate.

Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 Wednesday games.

In conclusion I think OVER 8.5 is a strong play and possibly ATL -1.5....will post my daily thread shortly with official plays
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#2
Posted: 9/15/2010 9:45:25 AM
Good stuff
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Maydaymalone send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 9/15/2010 9:50:12 AM
Very good info.

The Under seemed to easy reading the number, but you provided a lot of good information.

True asset to Covers, unlike a ton of knucklheads on here

this is what this forum is for!!
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#4
Posted: 9/15/2010 9:54:54 AM
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#5
Posted: 9/15/2010 9:56:44 AM
 Thanks
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hammer22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#6
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:02:38 AM
after looking deeper into the game the OVER is a solid play, even though on the surface a lot of people will probably play the under....at least the numbers support the over play, I'll roll with it and posted my official plays in my other daily thread
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#7
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:04:48 AM


would love to get it at 8
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#8
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:07:25 AM
hammer22 -- great info! Much appreciated.


Here's what I found with the batter v.s. pitcher stats on the MLB site:


Minor v.s. Nationals.......(OBP) .280      (SLG) .317.     (AVE) .217

4 out of 10 (40%) of the Nats have bat .333 or better against Minor.


Lannan v.s. Braves.........(OBP) .348      (SLG) .409      (AVE) .318

6 out of 9 (66%) Braves bat .333 or better against Lannan


So, based on the batting v.s. pitcher information, perhaps a ML bet on the Braves to win might be a safer bet than an O/U bet?
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#9
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:09:23 AM
gL
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#10
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:13:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mozart:

hammer22 -- great info! Much appreciated.


Here's what I found with the batter v.s. pitcher stats on the MLB site:


Minor v.s. Nationals.......(OBP) .280      (SLG) .317.     (AVE) .217

4 out of 10 (40%) of the Nats have bat .333 or better against Minor.


Lannan v.s. Braves.........(OBP) .348      (SLG) .409      (AVE) .318

6 out of 9 (66%) Braves bat .333 or better against Lannan


So, based on the batting v.s. pitcher information, perhaps a ML bet on the Braves to win might be a safer bet than an O/U bet?



Looking at that run support the Braves give their pitcher, I am going to ride with the OVER and avoid that juice.

Maybe RL for Braves for you to avoid that juice.

if the Braves bring it today, maybe a 7-2 type game
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#11
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:26:48 AM
Yeah i played both the OVER and the BRAVES -1.5

I refuse to lay -200 thats why i took the RL for plus money
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#12
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:29:28 AM
Maydaymalone -- Yes, I do think that a RL bet on the Braves is a good one. I'm nervous about any O/U bet.


Looking at my hand-drawn graph record for the Braves, I find that the Braves have hit 11 hits in each of the last three games, converting 6, 3 then 4, respectively, of those hits into runs -- then the low-hit total last night against the Nationals.
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#13
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:31:18 AM
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#14
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:32:33 AM
I am hoping for one of those Braves blowouts we have been seeing once in a while lately where they get up big early like 6-0 or 7-1 and see this total hit by the 6th inning that be nice...we all know the braves are capable of it
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#15
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:36:50 AM
ALSO.....

Over is 8-4 in Atlanta's last twelve home games and the Braves have won 8 of the last 12 home games. It seems to me when they win at home the total goes over....I like these plays a lot.
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#16
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:38:48 AM
Looks nice, I'm thinking about going nats to that line though.
Btw, how can you find any statistical worth in how much run support a pitcher gets or how well a team has played on a specific day of the week? Seems very odd and coincidental to me.

I guess the small angle on the first question is that the pitcher is a damn good hitter since it's a NL game but that's not really the case.
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#17
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:44:20 AM
Locked in
Braves RL
and
OVER 8.5

Good Luck to us


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hammer22 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#18
Posted: 9/15/2010 10:51:31 AM
Mayday



Sonadar---scoresandodds.com has a lot of stats...click on the free match up under the game you want to research

I dont really understand what your saying anyways sonadar
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#19
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:10:11 AM
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#20
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:17:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hammer22:

I am hoping for one of those Braves blowouts we have been seeing once in a while lately where they get up big early like 6-0 or 7-1 and see this total hit by the 6th inning that be nice...we all know the braves are capable of it


they are also very very capable of shitting bricks, and score 0.
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#21
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:19:20 AM
Check the lineups.  Some good players out.  McCann, Dunn, ETC.  The Nats lineup looks disgusting.

And when is Morgan going to serve his damn suspension?
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#22
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:28:48 AM
Nats ML
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#23
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:30:17 AM

Why not just play the Braves team total over?

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#24
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:30:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by deegen:



they are also very very capable of shitting bricks, and score 0.


isnt every team capable of both?

thats why they call it gambling.

Pretty dumb statement
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#25
Posted: 9/15/2010 11:38:37 AM
been riding Minor overs from start 1, keep em going!  Love this pick!
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