Betting baseball is more of side project for me until the fall/winter sports start.
I've been only playing parlays with overs recently. I have not won a whole lot, however, when I look at the percentages of the games I'm hitting, they're quite good.
So this is just an experiment. I'm going to play nothing but overs, and flat bet 1 unit for all the games, and see how it goes in one weeks time. If I'm up, I'll continue. If I'm down, I'll stop.
My criteria is simple. I'm only basing my plays on a couple of them. 1: starting pitcher ERA vs opp team. 2: starting pitcher last 3 starts. 3: team batting avg vs starting LHP/RHP. 4: bit of my own intuition.
Betting baseball is more of side project for me until the fall/winter sports start.
I've been only playing parlays with overs recently. I have not won a whole lot, however, when I look at the percentages of the games I'm hitting, they're quite good.
So this is just an experiment. I'm going to play nothing but overs, and flat bet 1 unit for all the games, and see how it goes in one weeks time. If I'm up, I'll continue. If I'm down, I'll stop.
My criteria is simple. I'm only basing my plays on a couple of them. 1: starting pitcher ERA vs opp team. 2: starting pitcher last 3 starts. 3: team batting avg vs starting LHP/RHP. 4: bit of my own intuition.
I actually had more plays that I didn't play figuring that 4 was enough, and those plays all cashed in. In the future, if there are more games that meet my criteria, I'll just go ahead and play it anyways. Same goes if the opposite is true, less plays if they don't. Not going to limit myself on the number of plays per day.
On to tomorrow and see how this little experiment works out. GLA
I actually had more plays that I didn't play figuring that 4 was enough, and those plays all cashed in. In the future, if there are more games that meet my criteria, I'll just go ahead and play it anyways. Same goes if the opposite is true, less plays if they don't. Not going to limit myself on the number of plays per day.
On to tomorrow and see how this little experiment works out. GLA
The Bal/KC game was a , not to go over. So many opportunities missed, they totalled 21 hits and 3 errors and still couldn't get the job done. The top of 9th was especially horrible; with man on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Markasis first pitch swinging into a DP... idiot.. no wonder the O's are losers.
The Bal/KC game was a , not to go over. So many opportunities missed, they totalled 21 hits and 3 errors and still couldn't get the job done. The top of 9th was especially horrible; with man on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Markasis first pitch swinging into a DP... idiot.. no wonder the O's are losers.
There was a correction on my record, going into today my record should have been 8-5-1, and not 7-5-1. I was 6-3-1 with a 2-2 record on Aug 1st. I realised this when I was adding up the total units, which all makes sense now.
There was a correction on my record, going into today my record should have been 8-5-1, and not 7-5-1. I was 6-3-1 with a 2-2 record on Aug 1st. I realised this when I was adding up the total units, which all makes sense now.
Decided to make the plays a little earlier today, some of the plays I like might be moving towards higher juice, so I'm making the bets now. There are several other potential plays that I may decide to add later, as one side of the pitching matchup has horrible numbers, but not enough info for the other half. Here are the plays so far:
Decided to make the plays a little earlier today, some of the plays I like might be moving towards higher juice, so I'm making the bets now. There are several other potential plays that I may decide to add later, as one side of the pitching matchup has horrible numbers, but not enough info for the other half. Here are the plays so far:
ChiSox/Det(game 1, Buehrle vs Procello) over 8.5: 1 to win .901
The data is a bit imcoplete for the Mil/Chi and Was/Ari games, as Diamond and Saunders have never face the opposing team yet. However, Narveson is just an overs machine this year. Saunders may have a good start and mess up the over, but I'm thinking they can hit Olsen and the Dbacks pen will give up some runs here. A bit risky on these two picks, but I still like them. GLA
ChiSox/Det(game 1, Buehrle vs Procello) over 8.5: 1 to win .901
The data is a bit imcoplete for the Mil/Chi and Was/Ari games, as Diamond and Saunders have never face the opposing team yet. However, Narveson is just an overs machine this year. Saunders may have a good start and mess up the over, but I'm thinking they can hit Olsen and the Dbacks pen will give up some runs here. A bit risky on these two picks, but I still like them. GLA
The SF/Col game was the first one that I liked on the board today. Sanchez has a career 6.75 ERA in 52 IP vs Col. Cook has 4.96 ERA in 138 IP. This is the most important factor in my experiment here; the sample size of these pitchers vs opp is very big and gives a pretty accurate view (IMO) of how much scoring will take place in this game. It will be very probable that the games goes over. GL
The SF/Col game was the first one that I liked on the board today. Sanchez has a career 6.75 ERA in 52 IP vs Col. Cook has 4.96 ERA in 138 IP. This is the most important factor in my experiment here; the sample size of these pitchers vs opp is very big and gives a pretty accurate view (IMO) of how much scoring will take place in this game. It will be very probable that the games goes over. GL
Lesson learned; do not play games that do not have enough data regardless how tempting they look. The Mil/CHC and Was/Ari games hurt me because I went ahead and played them anyways. Narveson pitched a good game, that's a big surprised. Had feeling Saunders would pitch good game, but not this good... no chance to get to that shaky Arizona bullpen.
Lesson learned; do not play games that do not have enough data regardless how tempting they look. The Mil/CHC and Was/Ari games hurt me because I went ahead and played them anyways. Narveson pitched a good game, that's a big surprised. Had feeling Saunders would pitch good game, but not this good... no chance to get to that shaky Arizona bullpen.
like that Balty over a lot, considering Chi/Det as well ... good luck with your plays
Thanks!
I really like the Bal/LAA over as well. Izturis, Lugo, Markakis, Scott, Roberts, and Wigginton are a combined 37 for 96 (.385 BA) vs Santana. They should be able to put up some runs against him. Angels should be able to score on Matusz as well.
like that Balty over a lot, considering Chi/Det as well ... good luck with your plays
Thanks!
I really like the Bal/LAA over as well. Izturis, Lugo, Markakis, Scott, Roberts, and Wigginton are a combined 37 for 96 (.385 BA) vs Santana. They should be able to put up some runs against him. Angels should be able to score on Matusz as well.
Today was a good day for the over in general, got me going back on the right track. Was so close to adding the NYM/Atl and Hou/StL overs as official plays. Instead, had them parlayed for a smaller play.
Today was a good day for the over in general, got me going back on the right track. Was so close to adding the NYM/Atl and Hou/StL overs as official plays. Instead, had them parlayed for a smaller play.
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