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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: I am doing a poll....serious answers please....
Jarrett75 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:15:03 AM
so in the past week I have turned $50 into $4,162.86. I have a dilemma though. I really like Roy Halladay tomorrow and even though he had a rough outing last time, I expect him to bounce back in a big way tomorrow. So here are the choices and please be serious guys. The bet would pay me back with stake around $6054. The reason I am asking is I have made bad big bets like this and wish I had withdrawn it before and just played small and built it back up. Should I:

A: Bet it all on the Phillies tomorrow then withdraw most of it. Leave myself like $250.

OR


B: Withdraw most of it and leave some to play (probably like $250) with and build it up again.

Thanks for the responses.

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#2
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:16:48 AM

Jarrett

Did you play alot of parleys? or straight bets if you don't mine me asking

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#3
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:16:53 AM
I think you answered your own question with B.  I personally never bet that kind of dough so I would definately pick option B for myself.
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#4
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:18:10 AM

parlay all of it for Boston/ anaheim to sweep

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#5
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:18:56 AM
B would be my answer.
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#6
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:20:00 AM
B.

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#7
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:21:53 AM

would advise against laying it all on the Phils anything could happen like say Halladay gets hit in the arm by a line drive and must come out then what. We all saw the Phils pen in action today so be careful even if Roy goes a strong 7+.

My take bet a bunch of games. Spread out the wealth you have gotten in the past week. And if the Phillies are still a strong bet in your mind then bet say 6% of your account on em. That would be your magic number of $250 or so. That way the bet is small and you dont sweat it that much. As oppossed to laying it all on the Phils and then yea u start sweating too much.

My advice bottom line is Put $250 on em and take the rest and run. Been in a similar situation earlier this month. And didnt take the money so now im battling to get 1/10 of what I had earlier.

 

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#8
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:22:03 AM

The Phillies are Cursed.

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#9
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:22:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Platinum_Heat:

Jarrett

Did you play alot of parleys? or straight bets if you don't mine me asking



my betting strategy is deposit a little, bet parlays for a couple days and try and turn it into $500-$1000, then bet straights mostly with high dollar risk. I have been pretty lucky, but I sometimes hit slides as most anyone does. I just thought about betting one more big bet and taking it out.
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#10
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:23:14 AM
i would withdraw before you give it all back like i did.
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#11
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:25:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LTZ1:

would advise against laying it all on the Phils anything could happen like say Halladay gets hit in the arm by a line drive and must come out then what. We all saw the Phils pen in action today so be careful even if Roy goes a strong 7+.

My take bet a bunch of games. Spread out the wealth you have gotten in the past week. And if the Phillies are still a strong bet in your mind then bet say 6% of your account on em. That would be your magic number of $250 or so. That way the bet is small and you dont sweat it that much. As oppossed to laying it all on the Phils and then yea u start sweating too much.

My advice bottom line is Put $250 on em and take the rest and run. Been in a similar situation earlier this month. And didnt take the money so now im battling to get 1/10 of what I had earlier.

 



This is what I am afraid of. In the last 6 months I am like 15W and 15L on really big bets of like $2500 or more. That's why I am asking and by the looks I should and probably will  just withdraw most of it in the morning.
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#12
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:28:51 AM
NO don't put it all on the Phils, I agree Halladay could throw a no hitter tomorrow, who knows? But you don't want to climb that ladder to the top just to let someone pull it out from under you. Please withdraw at least 2K then work with the rest. GL.
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#13
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:30:31 AM

so in the past week I have turned $50 into $4,162.86.

Wow, you are the champ with 8,225% Return on Investment in just a week. You are storming over the gambling world.

 

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#14
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:34:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Europa:

so in the past week I have turned $50 into $4,162.86.

Wow, you are the champ with 8,225% Return on Investment in just a week. You are storming over the gambling world.

 



lol well for this week I am. But I have been struggling a lot since the NCAA tourney. As of the end of the NCAA tourney I was up 12k, by the NBA finals I had given about 96% of it back.
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#15
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:37:02 AM
yeah what he said
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#16
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:38:37 AM
you know what you SHOULD DO

you don't need a poll buddy
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#17
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:40:35 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jarrett75:



lol well for this week I am. But I have been struggling a lot since the NCAA tourney. As of the end of the NCAA tourney I was up 12k, by the NBA finals I had given about 96% of it back.

Up from $50 to 12k?

I will take answer: B 

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#18
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:43:03 AM
definitely answer B......you shouldnt even have to ask the question....its way too hard to make lots of money gambling and you sure dont want to lose it all in one game.......dont risk it....risk/reward for plan A is absolutely horrible
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#19
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:44:03 AM
well, sounds like the violent swings mean your wager sizes are all over the place. Just withdraw once you get it up there, because I guarantee that one loss will just crush you mentally. Been there, done that. Now, I'm barely scrapping waiting for that next run.
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#20
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:45:07 AM
b..... roy got hammered the last game... both offenses are hot, its pretty much a coin flip
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#21
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:53:49 AM
ok guys thanks for the responses, I am going to withdraw the majority and start over trying to build it back up. I know B sounded like the logical choice, but garbage I really like Roy tomorrow and feel like it's a sure $1892. Of course times where I do the smart thing, it seems like the big bet I would have bet wins big. Thanks for the responses, once again, I really appreciate it. Good luck tomorrow guys.
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#22
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:54:56 AM

B. simply because if you saw the Phillies v Yankees series...you know that baseball is as unpredictable as it gets. But here is a stat you may be interested in for backing Doc.

Halladay is 8-1 all-time against Minnesota.

Halladay has given up 5+ runs OR 10+ hits 5 times this season. His ERA following one of those outings is 0.77 in 4 starts and he's gone 9 innings 3 times and 8 innings the other time. However...his record is 2-2 BUT, that happened during the stretch where the Phillies weren't hitting worth garbage.

Now he's coming off he got smacked around by his former rivals, The Yankees. The last time he got smacked around by an former AL East Rival...he came back to throw a perfect game against his next opponent.

 

I know you didn't ask for stats...but I wanted to help you out.

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#23
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:55:54 AM
Factor in that fuckin awful Phillies bullpen

no thanks
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#24
Posted: 6/20/2010 12:57:07 AM
I am with the others who advise taking your cash and starting over (given the two choices). You have had an amazing roll -- you made your bank roll 80x your original balance. Baseball is a really tough sport to get right. I consider myself to be above average in terms of baseball knowledge and I enjoy testing my meddle with handicapping, but it's tough!

Here are some thoughts as to why you should not put a huge total on Halladay tomorrow:
(1) Picking the right starter is only half the battle. Halladay, is without doubt, one of the premier starters in baseball, and his 2.36 ERA back that up this season as well. However, his record is only 8-5 and the Phillies are only 8-6 in his starts. This is similar to the Gavin Floyd / Steve Strasburg thread from yesterday. Strasburg was sensational again, but Floyd was strong and the White Sox at +165 won the money.
(2) Money management is very important. The Phillies are -210 tomorrow against a good Twins team. Even if your handicapping says you have a 90% chance of winning tomorrow, given the line, you should not play more than 5% of your bank roll tomorrow.

From here, I'd suggest taking your units up to $250 per game, and keep picking winners like you have get your winnings to where they are now. It's a long season, and if you keep it up, and manage your risk and money wisely, it could be a big season for you. Don't risk going back to square one with a loss tomorrow.

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#25
Posted: 6/20/2010 1:06:54 AM
Actually leaning towards Minnesota if anything...
Best of luck on whatever you end up doing...

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