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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: NewYorkYankees been making me money give me a reason not to put it all on them tomorrow
biggtimebiggs send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 5/3/2010 2:49:53 AM
Seriously if no one can convince me otherwise i am gonna put everything on the yankees tomorrow
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#2
Posted: 5/3/2010 2:53:54 AM
Besides "Anything Can Happen" then there is no reason not to.
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#3
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:01:40 AM

Will anything happen or will the yankees keep there bats hot against a mediocre pitcher and shut out the orioles till the reliefs come in

 

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catlover
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#4
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:09:49 AM
YANKS WILL ROLL DO IT.
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#5
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:37:38 AM
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#6
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:46:16 AM
Yes, I will give you a reason. Any given Monday. LOL  It will take a miracle for Baltimore to win, but you never know. I am shocked they took one game form the Yanks already. I can say this the O's are out matched out gunned and need all the luck they can get. However, I wouldn't put everything on one game. 
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#7
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:52:03 AM
I am 99.9% sure that the Yanks blow out Baltimore tomorrow. I am on them -2.5 for 5 units. Now way in hell though would I put everything I have on them. It`s baseball bro anything can happen any day, and with any pitchers on the mound. Please don`t put it all on the Yanks, just put a bigger than normal bet on them
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#8
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:58:45 AM
CC owns the O's

Career 10-1 with a 2.62era in 15 game starts.  106.1 innings pitched  only giving up 84 hits, striking out 70 and walking 30 batters.










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#9
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:13:07 AM

so im thinking instead of everything i will put $2000 on ml $1000rl -1.5 does that sound crazy or a reasonable cash in

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#10
Posted: 5/3/2010 8:04:17 AM
The problem is the odds its very curious how high odds games seem never to go the way you figure?
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#11
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:03:00 PM
On paper it looks like the Yankees will blow out the O's and it will be an easy game to cap. However, they don't play on paper and the one thing that is overlooked when handicapping a game like this is how interested will CC and the Yanks be to beat this team. Once and a while good teams just don't show up for some stupid reason and just expect to win cause they are the better team. It takes more than that and Baltimore has heated up in the last few games. They also took one game from the Yankees. In all honesty it could be closer then you think if Baltimore plays like they played against Boston. 
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#12
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:30:49 PM

The Orioles have been hitting the cover off the ball lately. Maybe scoring 5+ runs in 5 of their last 10 games isn't too much...but for the Orioles...it is a HUGE deal. It's means they're breaking out more and more. Markakis is finally coming around after a big spot. They're 5-2 in their last 7 games and after sweeping the Sox...they are finally flying on cloud 9. The Yanks own Guthrie...but before his start against the Yanks, he has been quite serviceable. In his 4 other starts this season, all have been "quality" which is saying a lot seeing that he only gave up 3 in at least 6 innings against the RAYS. Then he gave up 1 in Oakland and 3 in Fenway, before being lit up by the Yanks. No Granderson for the Yanks against the righty which means, if Girardi sticks to his plan, and wants to keep Thames confidence up and ONLY put him in against lefties, than we'll be seeing Winn in left. Of course...he's not great with the stick, but also, your best arm in the outfield is now Swisher...for what it's worth. While the Orioles' bullpen has been flat out PATHETIC...the Yankees' pen isn't a gold mine. While Baltimore's pen is ranked 20th with a 4.42 ERA...the Yankees aren't that far behind with a 4.03 ERA and ranked 14th. And Girardi is such a poor manager, god forbid this is a close game and a lefty comes up in a big spot, he'll probably take out the lefty Sabathia and put in Marte because he "liked the matchup". That's how friggin stupid this manager is and I really don't care for him at all. He over manages and single handedly lost Saturday's game against the Chi.Sox and possibly the game against the Angels where he brought in Marte...AGAIN...told him to intentionally walk Morales, and then tells him to pitch to him, and gives up the slam. But in no way am I bitter.  Also...Wiggington has really found his spot in this Orioles' lineup. He's pretty much good for a HR once every 2 games. Being in Yankee Stadium...maybe it's a better fit for him.

Oh yea...and everything is possible.

 

I'm in no way saying that the Orioles are the play...just playing Devil's Advocate.

And yes...this is me. My name has not been "hacked". I actually gave you some reasons why the Yankees could possibly lose to the Orioles with Sabathia on the mound against Guthrie AT Yankee Stadium.

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#13
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:47:14 PM
Looks as though this matchup the last time, Guthrie got shelled for 7 out of the 8 runs scored by the Yanks.  I think even if Guthrie has a better outing, Yankees still could pull out a run line win.
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#14
Posted: 5/3/2010 3:52:13 PM
I'm taking the O's +290 to the bank
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#15
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:14:06 PM
I'm A stat guy,,,,,,,,,

Guthrie in just his 5 inn starts is,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3-1-3-2-7 vs Sabathia,in same 5 inn stats,,,,2-0-1-4-1
inn 6-9,,,,,,1-4-2-1-1 vs sabathia 6-9 inn ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6-0-0-0-2

IMO,, any run allowed in first 5 inn must be 0-1-2
guthie has 2 of them
sabathia has 4 of them

inn 6-9 3/4 is the key # for a 9 inn game or below IMO
Guthrie has 4 unders in 6-9 and bull pen
Sabathia has four unders also,,,,,,,,
 Sabathia will def win it in 5 inn,,,,,,,, and probably also in 9

NYY  as a team in 5 inn +41 in RA vs RF vs O's at -29 = edge to NYY at + 70 better team in 5 inn
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Nyy in 9 inn as a team is +67 vs O 's -39,,,,,=Nyy + 106 better
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Personally i can not see how the O's can win this game,,,,,and  the SP's past performance proves this,,,,,,,,Now does NYY win this matchup in 5 & 9,,,,,,,,,thats your decision and only yours to make,,,,,,,,,,,,

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#16
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:22:40 PM
The reason not to put it all on the Yankees tonight is:

Risk Management

The reason to put it all on the Yankees tonight is:

Gambling

Nothing wrong with that, but unless I see some statistics around how often -300 favorites actually win (is it really 75%?) this line played over and over again will kill the bank roll.
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#17
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:28:32 PM

nah man.. never go all in on one play.. it never works..

Play the Yanks with the Cavs ML... should be safe, and you'll risk alot less.

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#18
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:31:21 PM
On the Orioles myself, but simpy due to the value of +285.  A lot of chalk to lay on a fat boy on the hill who probably drank a few cases of beer this past weekend with a few racks of ribs
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#19
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:47:06 PM
NYY as a 300+ Favorite

2006 7-2 +0.3 units
2007 2-2 -4.16 units
2008 1-0 +1.0 units
2009 3-5 -12.56 units

Total 13-9 -15.42 units
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#20
Posted: 5/3/2010 4:58:04 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by vegasplayer:

The problem is the odds its very curious how high odds games seem never to go the way you figure?

what the hell are you talking about, did you watch any baseball this weekend, all the high odds games paid off not only ml but rl

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#21
Posted: 5/3/2010 5:01:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by msohn:

The reason not to put it all on the Yankees tonight is:

Risk Management

The reason to put it all on the Yankees tonight is:

Gambling

Nothing wrong with that, but unless I see some statistics around how often -300 favorites actually win (is it really 75%?) this line played over and over again will kill the bank roll.

when they make it that high they are trying to get action on the dog, favorites that high usually win at 75% but that doesn't mean you could run into the one out of 4 where they don't..also, if it weren't true then money could be made by blindly betting the dog but u know sportsbooks would not let that happen, therefore there is no value on either side if u r guessing....

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#22
Posted: 5/3/2010 5:02:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by biggtimebiggs:

Seriously if no one can convince me otherwise i am gonna put everything on the yankees tomorrow

no reason to put it all on one game no matter the outcome... u could double up but u could also go broke....i mean when you play blackjack do you ever put it all on one hand regardless of the count

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#23
Posted: 5/3/2010 5:18:40 PM
Jeter has some pretty nice matchup numbers against Guthrie: http://www.dailybaseballdata.com , not that you needed more reasons!
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#24
Posted: 5/3/2010 5:25:37 PM
Don't be a fool. Even 2k is too large a portion of your bankroll (20%) There will be better plays ahead. remember a fool and his money often part
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#25
Posted: 5/3/2010 5:38:32 PM

Bad habits in gambling are things like I'm going all in on one play with everything I got.

Sure you have a good shot at winning but the thing is you will continue to do it because you got away with it before and so why not again.

Well it's only going to take that one time where you just gonna lose it all.

The moral of the story is: Don't start any bad habits while gambling, even with good habits it's tough to win in the long run.

But hey it's your money do as you please and learn from your own experiences.

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