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Once the Minnesota Twins won game 163 to catapult themselves into the the playoffs to face argueably the best team in the A.L., I have been looking at this spot in the series as my striking point to grab not only great value, but great value with a very high winning chance, opportunity, whatever you want to call it.  Almost immediately the pitching matchups were released and I saw Allan James Burnett slated to toe the rubber against Nick Blackburn of the Minnesota Twins, and I thought to myself, this is going to be the game.  Well the lines were released and I got just what I hoped for...a ton of home chalk for the Yankees. 

Bare with me as I travel back in time to visit some previous N.Y. Yankee playoff teams that were very good, (could have been better or worse than the current team, but who cares).  In 2005 the Yankees made the playoffs and traveled to L.A. to take on the Angels...they took game 1, and proceeded to drop game 2, before finally losing in 5 games...this series is only being noted, as it doesnt have as much in common as the next two years after.  Here is where it gets interesting...in 2006 the N.Y. Yankees played host to the Detroit Tigers.  No one gave the Tigers a fighting chance in this series...Behind Wang in Game 1, the Yankees took home the bacon and a series lead, 1-0.  In game 2, crafty-vet Mussina pitched against Justin Verlander and the Yankees were again huge favs (-227) and they lost game 2 of the series, before eventually losing the next two on the road to a Tigers team that no one thought would win.  This series draws a lot of close, and I mean ver close comparisons to what is currently going on between these two teams tonight (Twins Yankees).  What's interesting is the Twins are being given NO chance at all in this series, very similiar to the chances the Tigers were given when they beat the Yankees.  What's also important to note is that the Yankees won game 1 by a scored of 8-4 against the Tigers, and they just beat the Twins on wednesday by a scored of 7-2...similiar type of games.  Verlander went on to beat the Yankees in game 2 by a close score of 4-3.  I expect the same type of game here tonight between the Twins and the Yankees. 

Now let's get back from out little history lesson and return our attention to tonight's action.  The Twins are going to send Nick Blackburn to hill to get everything evened up before the Yankees come to the Metrodome.  If you don't know much about Nick Blackburn, let me fill you in quickly.  This guy is making his name as a big-game pitcher.  It all started last year when he pitched as a rookie on the road against the White Sox in game 163.  Yes, he was the losing pitcher, but he threw one heck of a game and his team lost 1-0.  Well more recently Blackburn has only strengthned his case as a big-game pitcher as the Twins needed him to step up down the stretch if they were going to catch the Tigers, and boy did he ever.  Blackburn was a key to Minnesota’s late-season surge, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last four starts, with the Twins winning all four games.  Let me tell you that Blackburn is not going to be scared to pitch in the spotlight tonight of Yankee stadium.  He has pitched in big games for almost a whole month now, and I will argue that the Twins have been playing "playoff" games for almost a whole month now.  The key for Blackburn is mixing his pitches, and he has been able to do that extremely well lately.  Look for him to continue that against the Yankees tonight as he will try and keep the Yankee hitters off-balance.  Blackburn is a ground-ball pitcher and I expect him to put up some early zero's and keep his ball team in the game as the Twins will pull out a close-game, and a thriller. 

Like Blackburn, A.J. Burnett was very strong down the stretch for the Yankees.  Here is where I start to see the value and the edge for the Twins.  I already talked about Blackburn and pitching in the big-games already in his young career, but on the other hand I feel that A.J. Burnett has not pitched in a big-game his whole career.  I am not saying he is going to pitch terrible, but I don't think that A.J. Burnett is the big guy that is going to put the Twins in a 0-2 hole.  Do the Yankees, and the fans really trust this guy?  Well somone does, since he has garnered a -300 price tag against a Twins team that is still 17-5 in their last 22 games, and are on runs of 21-6 against right-hander pitchers, 11-3 on the road against right-handed starters, 29-11 after an off day, 36-15 on Friday and 5-1 in the second game of a series.  In those impressive runs I just stated is another important key to keep in mind.  The Twins are 29-11 after an off day...the day off yesterday was huge for the Twins as they had a chance to get some sleep and get their bodies and minds back.  Don't think the loss on Wednesday night hurt or crushed the Twins hopes...this is a tough ball team, which is evident from their comeback (or tiger collapse).  The Twins believe they can beat anyone...and I will argue they gained some confidence and some more belief if they had any doubt from game 1 and here is why.  The Twins got runners on, they got hits, but they just didnt get the normal two-out hits, and the hits with RISP that they normally do.  They were tired, run down, etc. but its not like they got crushed in that game.  They took the early lead, and actually should have gotten a run in the 1st inning, but didnt.  They also got a few runners on against Rivera in the 9th and built some good confidence and had great at-bats against him.  This Twins team is prime for an upset tonight, and I really expect it to be in a great ball game, where they win a close one, with low scoring.  When Blackburn pitches, the under is on a streak of 16-5-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a road dog, and 3-0-1 against the A.L. East.  With Burnett toeing the rubber, the under is on streaks of 3-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. Central, and 10-4 as a favorite.  For the Twins to win this game it is going to take an "Under" play for them.  With the recent stats I just stated, I not only like the chances for the Under in this game, but I love their chances to steal one in front of a Yankee crowd. 

 

Under 10 Runs MIN/NYY 

I had similar thoughts!

 

Yankees(NewYork) Burnett

10/09/09(18:10 ET) Twins(Minnesota) +1.5 (+130)

Gluck Headache! Will you be around for college football saturday?

The Twins are due and Burny has put extra pressure on himself this game with the catcher issue.

 

BOL