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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread - WEDNESDAY 8-5-09
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 8/4/2009 10:18:11 PM
Looks like a pretty good Tuesday so lets get after it.
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gfoss59
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#2
Posted: 8/4/2009 11:37:14 PM
Often wrong; never in doubt...

On to Wednesday, happy in the knowledge that at least Yasmaneuirimanasloveinskiachooachoogesundheit Petite is not pitching...


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#3
Posted: 8/4/2009 11:46:44 PM
Ideas I think we should discuss --

Lannan-Wash vs. Vandenhurk-Fla -- under, 5i; lean Wash, 5i; lean Fla, 9i; no position on total 9i.   (I keep pushing on "thread the needle." I'll take 2 out of 3.)

Hanson-Atl vs. Gaudin-SD -- under, plus lean Gaudin 5i.

Ohlendorf-Pitts vs. Davis-Ariz -- lean Ohlendorf at home.  Check the splits.

De La Rosa-Colo vs. Happ-Phil -- lean under. 

Harden-Cubs vs. Lehr-Cincy -- lean Cubs 5i, 9i RL.

Looper-Milw  vs. Schmidt-LAD -- you got me.  But I lean LAD.

Boston-Penny vs. TB-Price -- lean under 5i.

Guthrie-Balt. vs. Jackson-Det. -- lean Det. and over. 

Liriano-Minn. vs. Indians-Laffey -- over.  Might be the best pick on the board.

Padilla-Tex vs. Braden-Oak -- lean over, and lean Padilla.

French-Sea vs. Davies-KC -- we have to lean Seattle, yes, Element? 

Pardon the bare-bones overview, but even the Dos Equis guy sleeps now and then -- I'm pretty sure.  I've been caring for a friend and have...

Miles to go before I sleep...
And miles to go before I sleep...

Stay thirsty my friends.


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KeyElement
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#4
Posted: 8/4/2009 11:51:44 PM
Yeah, well, all I can is, in the immortal words of Richard Nixon, "just let me say this about that "x&*%*^(*_*(+T%G%%&^x" so my feelings are now well known.
Screwed at San Diego to and I haven't been there in years. Lead off triple and you don't get the guy home? Pardon Me? Oh well, Momma said there would be days like this, 3-2 will have to suffice. see you guys tomorrow.
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#5
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:14:48 AM
probably gonna take that min/cle over as soon as it opens
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#6
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:19:24 AM
scratch that, it looks like larry vanover will be behind the plate...
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#7
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:26:19 AM
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gfoss59
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#8
Posted: 8/5/2009 4:09:02 AM
yep, Element, thanks for keeping me on Minnesota -- or whoever it was, thank you.  can't believe backer shut down those indian bats that well. 

cheers, 59


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#9
Posted: 8/5/2009 8:58:43 AM
90% of my plays were international over this last weekend and then developed a bit of a mental tick with posting, or not posting plays.....if you know what I mean (and yes, it went mostly well.)


But back at least until this weekend.


Only two 5 inn leans without any odds yet, but AZ in 5 I will most likely play - will look at LAA/CWS <5 when odds released. Other than that, I don't know, but there seems to be a lot of playable overs like yesterday.


* I know my D-Backs, and I think they will be a decent 2nd half season team this year, you just have to know when to try and hit em. I just wish I could brag about taking them in 9 yesterday. It helped that I listened to Petit's last start (over net radio) and he seemed to be bordering on crossing a line in pitching decent, and I figured he could handle this PIT line up, but not like that! 
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KeyElement
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#10
Posted: 8/5/2009 8:58:51 AM
Good morning gents, three early games but those are the only ones I've gotten through so far. On first glance I would lean Seattle as you say foss, but not very far into that game yet.
 
In the three early ones I'm leaning Mets-Hous-SaD, but not calling a shot on any yet. Back soon.
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#11
Posted: 8/5/2009 9:15:52 AM
norse, no way I can risk an under in any LAA game right now, averaging 5 runs in 5 innings versus lefties and 4.6 versus righties, they are just a hitting machine. CWS are at 3.6 and 3.7 respectively, so any under when these two meet is a risky proposition IMO
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#12
Posted: 8/5/2009 10:41:24 AM

 -179 Bsbl   New York Yankees1stHALF over  5½ @+1.00
                       straight play                      100.00 for    100.00*

 -267 Bsbl   Seattle Mariners1stHALF over  5 @-1.05
                       straight play                       52.50 for     50.00* 

 115 Bsbl   Colorado Rockies1stML pick @+1.30
                       straight play                       50.00 for     65.00*

  135 Bsbl   Chicago Cubs1stHALF  -½ @-1.30
                       straight play                       65.00 for     50.00

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KeyElement
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#13
Posted: 8/5/2009 11:23:09 AM
Mets +119 Lohse / Niese
The Cardinals are 4-10 when Lohse takes the ball including 0-6 on the road where he sports a 5.73 era. I will grant he has looked a little better lately but I still have a hard time calling this guy a worthy road favorite. The Cardinals lucked out in extra innings last night but didn't hold back the Mets through 5 or 9. They lost at 5, 7-4 and had to scramble to tie it in 9, so they aren't world beaters by any means. It's not hard to see a bounce back effort from the Mets today as they have been hitting the ball well in spite of their results. 
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#14
Posted: 8/5/2009 11:33:08 AM
Yeh Key SD played like crap,but think about the luck,or bad pitching like you said,we got 3 runs by the Angels on 1 hit in the 2nd or 3rd inning,whichever it was.Jose just keep walking them and then 2 or 3 wild pitchers helped,then the 1 hit to bring in the next 2 runs to give us a 3-2 lead.
I also put a 1/2 unit on Balt.in 9,reason was they had started 4 guys that had all won their first start in the majors this year,going for #5 would tie a record from the 1880s think it was.Something I read before the game started by someone on here,so after 5 innings it was 3-1 which Im thinking now I should of done F-5,but couple innings later it turned into an easy one.
It was a nice day for sure,plus your 3 wins,and if we are going to lose one,the Pitt.game is the way to do it,done quick,lol 
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#15
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:01:51 PM
Might be a good place to fade my Giants,Martinez is not a starter so they are trying to stretch him out,plus first time pitching since the line drive off his face,could be a tad nervous.
Mohler #s are not grat,but he keeps them in the games he pitches,thinking of a 9 inning play unless Key thinks 5 is better,lol
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KeyElement
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#16
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:12:30 PM
You make a couple good points JEG, lucky in one case, unlucky in another, just the way it goes. I have to look at that LAA offense though and figure you are never out of it if they have an out left  Right now the Giants and Astros are two of the toughest teams for me to read so I am passing on them a lot, seems like every day is a coin flip. looks like I will have only two more plays today but there are a lot of guys we haven't heard from yet. 
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KeyElement
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#17
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:42:21 PM
The good news is we have a 2-0 lead, the bad news is Niese went down and Figueroa is in.
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#18
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:44:48 PM
What happened to him?They said he just fell over?
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#19
Posted: 8/5/2009 12:46:54 PM
Key what I didnt know and still after reading yesterdays thread,was Minny a big play?
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KeyElement
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#20
Posted: 8/5/2009 1:08:37 PM
I think Niese hyper extended a knee on a fielding play and went down on his next pitch
 
Yeah, Minny was my top play yesterday and I will be telling foss why when I write up tonight's plays. It was a K-Play, 8-0 winner
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#21
Posted: 8/5/2009 1:58:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I think Niese hyper extended a knee on a fielding play and went down on his next pitch
 
Yeah, Minny was my top play yesterday and I will be telling foss why when I write up tonight's plays. It was a K-Play, 8-0 winner

I didnt know,

Mets were an easy winner,thanks

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KeyElement
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#22
Posted: 8/5/2009 2:11:24 PM
Where is everybody? It seems a little early for you but the regular early guys should have been back by now.
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#23
Posted: 8/5/2009 2:29:32 PM
I just woke up yesterday to play your plays and a couple things I like to do,then went back to bed,lol
Slept all day and night,woke up at 7.30 today so thats why Im here this early.
Really like Atl.,but not the price,even the R/L -1/2 is -120 now,thats like a double wammy,minus runs and juice,over is only 3.5 also,seems low. 
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KeyElement
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#24
Posted: 8/5/2009 2:52:06 PM
K-Play Dodgers -130 Looper / Schmidt
August is the time to separate contenders from pretenders and I think we go that way tonight. The Dodgers have not been the best looking team since the break but look like they are set to roll it up now. Looper has had the best part of his season and will fade with his team. The upset Monday night was probably it for the Brewers on this trip but Jason Schmidt still wants to cement his place in the post season rotation and is in good form. Lay it.
 
Indians +100 Liriano / Laffey
This game is not about the pitching. Liriano has been disappointing for his club, just 4-10 in his starts although 53-53 overall. Long story, short version, he is not carrying his weight. Not much to speak of on the road either at 3-5 and 5.92 era. Laffey is not overly impressive either, but 2-0 and 2.57 at home. What bettors are forgetting when they support the Twins as a favorite is that the Indians are currently the second best offense in all of MLB to contend with a lefty, trailing only the Yankees by only one slim point. Same pitching matchup? Yankees +100? Who do you take? The Indians are 6-2-2 their last 10 versus lefty in the 5 inning game and averaging 4.3 rp5ig. Liriano is a sitting duck, pull the trigger. 
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KeyElement
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#25
Posted: 8/5/2009 3:09:37 PM
The 3.5 does look low for a daytime game in San Diego. I'm not calling a shot, but might take a flyer on it. I landed on 4.5. 
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