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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5 Inning Discussion Thread - SUNDAY 7-26-09
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#1
Posted: 7/25/2009 6:51:06 PM
goallinebob, norseman, other overnighters, here you go.
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#2
Posted: 7/25/2009 9:42:01 PM

Hope the gang had a better day than me Saturday; got hammered by the Tribe's pounding of Seattle. 

Don't see a lot that thrills me Sunday, but I think we should look at:

Cook-Rockies.  Like their bats.  The over will tempt, I'm sure, but not sure if SF can hold up its end of the deal.  I think the side is the thing.

Milwood-Texas.  To beat Ponson in KC. 

St.L.-Phillies-over.  Pretty conventional, but should work. 

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#3
Posted: 7/26/2009 5:26:30 AM

Re: the above...

1. I'm taking Milwood-Texas off the list.  Texas (including Milwood) has the swine flu.  He says he "feels okay," but I also feel okay about not betting it.

2. I suppose we should also consider:

Lannan-Nationals, first 5 -- I always feel odd betting on him, even at home.  But they may have a little emerging mojo.

Cubs-Reds over, first 5 -- If you don't believe me, check out Harden's splits for home games. 
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#4
Posted: 7/26/2009 5:30:18 AM
I like the Rays a bit tomorrow at Toronto with Niemann pitching.  He's coming on and has beaten them before. 


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#5
Posted: 7/26/2009 5:33:17 AM
Also maybe Looper and the Brewers.  Lowe is terrible in the day. 

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#6
Posted: 7/26/2009 6:11:36 AM
Looking at these 3 for my 5 inn plays, depending on final price and O/U.....


OAK/NYY <5
STL/PHI   <5

and MIN 5



Ponson  >   ..............


* with Texas, I just up to 2 units, and spread those 2 units with the 4 different plays below.

TEX   X

CHC
COL
PIT/AZ 9>
SF/COL 9>


Then TAM & HOU  9 inns and FLA only dog play.




..............to us all..................................
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#7
Posted: 7/26/2009 6:13:49 AM

Rangers believe worst of flue outbreak is behind them

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#8
Posted: 7/26/2009 6:30:49 AM
Adding TAM/ DET  @  ($3.22)  parlay hedge.

Rays win, we hedge on CWS. Rays lose, we lose.
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#9
Posted: 7/26/2009 6:35:07 AM
Might also play the CWS/DET 9.5> if the day turns out shitty.

Good day, no play.
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#10
Posted: 7/26/2009 7:21:26 AM
gL...
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#11
Posted: 7/26/2009 10:07:06 AM
Both played at

OAK/NYY <5.5
STL/PHI   <5.5

and MIN 5 @  $2.12
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#12
Posted: 7/26/2009 10:13:29 AM
Adding BAL 5 @  $2.45
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#13
Posted: 7/26/2009 11:05:35 AM
SUNDAY first 5 brothers,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,got a lot but first,, saturday went 6-2 on totals,,,,,,,,two sides killed me,,,,,seattle and Atlanta,,,,boy were we wrong on them,,,,,

think i need to focus more on totals,,,,,,and prob a lot less juice

OK heres what i have and why

Sides

Blanton ( wellemeyer last 2 starts very bad and with phils bats it should continue ) also ( 9 RA last 2 starts,,,,4-5)also like the Over

I like lannaan at home and gaudin allows enough that i like the over too( Gaudin,,, 6-0-4-3,,last 4

POD ,,, Looper,,,,,1-0-2-2-2-0

POD,,,,,COOK,,,,2-0-0-3-1-0-2-0-1-1
strong play NIeman,,,,2-0-0-2,,,last 4

Over / unders,,,,,
Phils game over
Nats game Over
Brewers game under
Mets game under
Rays game Under
Boston game under
tex game under
CHW game over
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#14
Posted: 7/26/2009 11:15:19 AM
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#15
Posted: 7/26/2009 11:32:12 AM
Cook looks strong to me too.

Looper, pretty good.  Wellemeyer, I call four-run Wellemeyer -- I predicted he'll give up 4 runs today, F5.  Check his line out.

And I still like Reds-Cubs over.

Cheers..

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#16
Posted: 7/26/2009 12:31:57 PM
GREAT I should of went in here before I bet!!  
I took texas first 5= 1000
I took texas game =1000 
 
Texas (including Milwood) has the swine flu. 
I can't cancel my bet. damnit.  damnit.  Should I just bet against texas now?  And just pay the juice? looking at 400 dollar total because it was a 2000 bet.  Or should I just risk the 2000?
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#17
Posted: 7/26/2009 12:44:08 PM
The K-Play – 5 Innings

Nationals -147
Gaudin / Lannan

The Padres snuck in a win on Friday night but that’s all she wrote. How the worst hitting team in MLB is going to handle a guy like Lannan is somewhere beyond a pipe dream or even a decent fantasy dream. Thanks only to one big nine run explosion The Padres are averaging 2.6 rp5ig their last 10 versus lefties but the reality is they are 3-6-1 in those games and of course the nine run explosion was one of them. The others were a six run effort eight games ago and a four run effort ten games ago (just about to leave the graded sequence). The Nats really don’t look much better on average, but they face a far weaker guy on the hill than do the Padres.

Also 5 inning plays (rate them as one half the risk of the K-Play, flat wagering)

Astros -150 L.Hernandez / Moehler
Here again, the Mets have snuck in their win for this series and Moehler will make things right with the world.

Giants-Rockies UNDER 5, -110 Sadowski / Cook
Like yesterday the total is a little high for the starters and maybe a little low for the game, but my numbers indicate a slow start with both starters doing an adequate job, while the bullpens may blow it later.

White Sox +122 Richard / Porcello
I can’t see the sweep with Ozzie managing one side and both starters showing signs of going in opposite directions. Richard is getting his crap together and Porcello is hitting the rookie wall. Extended effort from the ChiSox tonight.
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#18
Posted: 7/26/2009 5:41:26 PM
Freakin Strohs - sounds like Mets  makeshift lineup has settled in against average SP.

3 dogs made for a decent day so far.....
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#19
Posted: 7/26/2009 7:11:02 PM
6-3 day, including dogs.

1st inning kaboom in NY dooms under. Ryan Howard booms in bottom of 5th to doom 2nd under. But Texas goes bam so we can go boom for the day.

Tomorrow, no bust.
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#20
Posted: 7/26/2009 9:21:02 PM
Nice day indeed norse, Monday Thread going up now
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#21
Posted: 7/26/2009 10:57:43 PM
SUNDAY first 5 brothers,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,got a lot but first,, saturday went 6-2 on totals,,,,,,,,two sides killed me,,,,,seattle and Atlanta,,,,boy were we wrong on them,,,,,

think i need to focus more on totals,,,,,,and prob a lot less juice

OK heres what i have and why

Sides

Blanton ( wellemeyer last 2 starts very bad and with phils bats it should continue ) also ( 9 RA last 2 starts,,,,4-5)also like the Over

I like lannaan at home and gaudin allows enough that i like the over too( Gaudin,,, 6-0-4-3,,last 4,,,,,push,,,,,

POD ,,, Looper,,,,,1-0-2-2-2-0,,,,,,,

POD,,,,,COOK,,,,2-0-0-3-1-0-2-0-1-1,,,,,
strong play NIeman,,,,2-0-0-2,,,last 4,,,,,,,

Over / unders,,,,,
Phils game over
Nats game Over,,,,
Brewers game under,,,,,
Mets game under,,,,,,,
Rays game Under,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Boston game under..........lost by .05
tex game under,,,,,,,,,,,,
CHW game over,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,and 6 team Parlay is a winner

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#22
Posted: 7/26/2009 11:01:21 PM
as continue to say,,,,,,,,,, its all about how you pick the plays for your parlay and the win is confirmed by Foss 59,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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