I see people talking about betting on someone to be opposite the public or not placing a bet because the public is on them. Why not cap the game and figure out what the best play that you decide instead of wrrying about everyone else. If I see value along with believing that team will win I place the bet. No offense but I dont care what you guys or anyone else out there is betting on. Not to mention line movements are usually caused by a few people betting very large amounts. Remember Vegas makes lines to equal out action not necessarily on who they think is going to win. Just curious everyone else's thoughts on this.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I see people talking about betting on someone to be opposite the public or not placing a bet because the public is on them. Why not cap the game and figure out what the best play that you decide instead of wrrying about everyone else. If I see value along with believing that team will win I place the bet. No offense but I dont care what you guys or anyone else out there is betting on. Not to mention line movements are usually caused by a few people betting very large amounts. Remember Vegas makes lines to equal out action not necessarily on who they think is going to win. Just curious everyone else's thoughts on this.
well an example is the last 2 times Johan Santana pitched. Public was all over him and what happened? Not saying I do it all the time, but like I have been saying:
"when something looks to good to be true, it probably is"
after thinking the Cards were a lock I looked more into the game and found out the Mets hit him pretty well. so I think the over is the better play on that game.
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well an example is the last 2 times Johan Santana pitched. Public was all over him and what happened? Not saying I do it all the time, but like I have been saying:
"when something looks to good to be true, it probably is"
after thinking the Cards were a lock I looked more into the game and found out the Mets hit him pretty well. so I think the over is the better play on that game.
You say that the Mets hit him well but if you are going to go by that stat then you have to look at their line up not the team as a whole because so many different players. NOt just that but hitters and pitchers may get better worse, be hot or cold, seeing the ball well, whatever it may be I just cant go on stats like that.
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You say that the Mets hit him well but if you are going to go by that stat then you have to look at their line up not the team as a whole because so many different players. NOt just that but hitters and pitchers may get better worse, be hot or cold, seeing the ball well, whatever it may be I just cant go on stats like that.
yeah but then you said the over is a strong play too, so since its so many different players for the Mets lineup you are thinking the Cardinals will cover the over themselves? you said an 8-5 type game. to me, with these pitcher it can go either way in 8-5 but still 8-5= OVER in 80 Innings Wellemeyer has an ERA of 5.36 so it seems everyone is hitting him pretty good. in 20.2 inniings VS the Mets 6.97 ERA he faced the Mets this year and had a ND 5 Innings, 4ER, 10 Hits and 1 K Wright VS him .700 Murphy Vs him .500 Schneider .500 Castillo .500
They will all be in the lineup so its not a completly different team I havent locked anything but the over yet so I like to watch the line movement and see what the public likes, look at lineups and pull triggers.
I would take the Casinos side over the publics anyday, but sometimes I dont. am I always right? course not, but the casino isnt always right either but they are right more times then me and Joe Public
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yeah but then you said the over is a strong play too, so since its so many different players for the Mets lineup you are thinking the Cardinals will cover the over themselves? you said an 8-5 type game. to me, with these pitcher it can go either way in 8-5 but still 8-5= OVER in 80 Innings Wellemeyer has an ERA of 5.36 so it seems everyone is hitting him pretty good. in 20.2 inniings VS the Mets 6.97 ERA he faced the Mets this year and had a ND 5 Innings, 4ER, 10 Hits and 1 K Wright VS him .700 Murphy Vs him .500 Schneider .500 Castillo .500
They will all be in the lineup so its not a completly different team I havent locked anything but the over yet so I like to watch the line movement and see what the public likes, look at lineups and pull triggers.
I would take the Casinos side over the publics anyday, but sometimes I dont. am I always right? course not, but the casino isnt always right either but they are right more times then me and Joe Public
this is a good thread here is a lil ex. yesterday there was line movement in these games az, stloius, hou, tb, pitt tor, balt, laa 15cent line movement or more and (everyone was on the above teams) if you would follow line movement you would of went 5-2 so I think watching line movement is helpful todays are sf and atl
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this is a good thread here is a lil ex. yesterday there was line movement in these games az, stloius, hou, tb, pitt tor, balt, laa 15cent line movement or more and (everyone was on the above teams) if you would follow line movement you would of went 5-2 so I think watching line movement is helpful todays are sf and atl
this is a good thread here is a lil ex. yesterday there was line movement in these games az, stloius, hou, tb, pitt tor, balt, laa 15cent line movement or more and (everyone was on the above teams) if you would follow line movement you would of went 5-2 so I think watching line movement is helpful todays are sf and atl
Col too.
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Quote Originally Posted by mrjiggyfly:
this is a good thread here is a lil ex. yesterday there was line movement in these games az, stloius, hou, tb, pitt tor, balt, laa 15cent line movement or more and (everyone was on the above teams) if you would follow line movement you would of went 5-2 so I think watching line movement is helpful todays are sf and atl
Not to mention line movements are usually caused by a few people betting very large amounts.
Would you rather side with 100 guys betting 20$ each or with 1 guy betting 2.300$ and causing the movement ?
I did some tracking few years ago (NBA) and came to the conclusion that following the movement should yield winners at roughly 60% rate over one season. It could have been just that season or a fluke during tracking time, but I use movements as tools, and will go against (with public) on occasion should I like some play really much.
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Quote Originally Posted by NoWorries21:
Not to mention line movements are usually caused by a few people betting very large amounts.
Would you rather side with 100 guys betting 20$ each or with 1 guy betting 2.300$ and causing the movement ?
I did some tracking few years ago (NBA) and came to the conclusion that following the movement should yield winners at roughly 60% rate over one season. It could have been just that season or a fluke during tracking time, but I use movements as tools, and will go against (with public) on occasion should I like some play really much.
Would you rather side with 100 guys betting 20$ each or with 1 guy betting 2.300$ and causing the movement ?
I did some tracking few years ago (NBA) and came to the conclusion that following the movement should yield winners at roughly 60% rate over one season. It could have been just that season or a fluke during tracking time, but I use movements as tools, and will go against (with public) on occasion should I like some play really much.
I hear what you're saying about going against movements. A friend of mine yesterday used a 2-for-1 coupon at Del Taco to buy two Bean & Cheese burritos. Hours later, he reported a movement, one I didn't particularly want to know about. Based on that movement, he's decided to fade any future Bean & Cheese burritos.
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Quote Originally Posted by LookKaPyPy:
Would you rather side with 100 guys betting 20$ each or with 1 guy betting 2.300$ and causing the movement ?
I did some tracking few years ago (NBA) and came to the conclusion that following the movement should yield winners at roughly 60% rate over one season. It could have been just that season or a fluke during tracking time, but I use movements as tools, and will go against (with public) on occasion should I like some play really much.
I hear what you're saying about going against movements. A friend of mine yesterday used a 2-for-1 coupon at Del Taco to buy two Bean & Cheese burritos. Hours later, he reported a movement, one I didn't particularly want to know about. Based on that movement, he's decided to fade any future Bean & Cheese burritos.
public still hits close to 50 percent, thats why just going against them isnt going to help you.
No worries is right, you should strive to become the best capper you can be and bet who you believe is going to win and not worry about what other bettors are doing. Look at it this way, all those big money bettors that you guys want to follow, they have to pick their plays some how. They do it by capping the games and then making their bets, they dont worry about what joe six pack is playing, they just worry if they capped the game right.
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public still hits close to 50 percent, thats why just going against them isnt going to help you.
No worries is right, you should strive to become the best capper you can be and bet who you believe is going to win and not worry about what other bettors are doing. Look at it this way, all those big money bettors that you guys want to follow, they have to pick their plays some how. They do it by capping the games and then making their bets, they dont worry about what joe six pack is playing, they just worry if they capped the game right.
public still hits close to 50 percent, thats why just going against them isnt going to help you.
No worries is right, you should strive to become the best capper you can be and bet who you believe is going to win and not worry about what other bettors are doing. Look at it this way, all those big money bettors that you guys want to follow, they have to pick their plays some how. They do it by capping the games and then making their bets, they dont worry about what joe six pack is playing, they just worry if they capped the game right.
Not true. So not true.
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Quote Originally Posted by cd329:
public still hits close to 50 percent, thats why just going against them isnt going to help you.
No worries is right, you should strive to become the best capper you can be and bet who you believe is going to win and not worry about what other bettors are doing. Look at it this way, all those big money bettors that you guys want to follow, they have to pick their plays some how. They do it by capping the games and then making their bets, they dont worry about what joe six pack is playing, they just worry if they capped the game right.
First, before I got any further, do you look at line movement at all when placing a play? Or are you just a straight ole' capper who bets what he wants to bet?
The Rox opened at +120 at CRIS yesterday and by this afternoon they're +101, and I'm pretty sure that's not an adjustment based on public betting. Do you pay attention to this stuff, and do you think it has any value?
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Bator, can I pick your brain for two seconds?
First, before I got any further, do you look at line movement at all when placing a play? Or are you just a straight ole' capper who bets what he wants to bet?
The Rox opened at +120 at CRIS yesterday and by this afternoon they're +101, and I'm pretty sure that's not an adjustment based on public betting. Do you pay attention to this stuff, and do you think it has any value?
I hear what you're saying about going against movements. A friend of mine yesterday used a 2-for-1 coupon at Del Taco to buy two Bean & Cheese burritos. Hours later, he reported a movement, one I didn't particularly want to know about. Based on that movement, he's decided to fade any future Bean & Cheese burritos.
I don't know how I can make this not sound totally balls-deep-juice-guzzling-dick-slapping-ass-licking-put-a-feather-in-my-ass-crack-while-taking-me-doggy-style-to-the-background-sounds-of-Brokeback-Mountain gay, but I've been reading your NBA insights with great pleasure.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
I hear what you're saying about going against movements. A friend of mine yesterday used a 2-for-1 coupon at Del Taco to buy two Bean & Cheese burritos. Hours later, he reported a movement, one I didn't particularly want to know about. Based on that movement, he's decided to fade any future Bean & Cheese burritos.
I don't know how I can make this not sound totally balls-deep-juice-guzzling-dick-slapping-ass-licking-put-a-feather-in-my-ass-crack-while-taking-me-doggy-style-to-the-background-sounds-of-Brokeback-Mountain gay, but I've been reading your NBA insights with great pleasure.
I don't know how I can make this not sound totally balls-deep-juice-guzzling-dick-slapping-ass-licking-put-a-feather-in-my-ass-crack-while-taking-me-doggy-style-to-the-background-sounds-of-Brokeback-Mountain gay, but I've been reading your NBA insights with great pleasure.
Thanks, but I think I know how you could have avoided making it sound like that.
By not writing all that!
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Quote Originally Posted by LookKaPyPy:
I don't know how I can make this not sound totally balls-deep-juice-guzzling-dick-slapping-ass-licking-put-a-feather-in-my-ass-crack-while-taking-me-doggy-style-to-the-background-sounds-of-Brokeback-Mountain gay, but I've been reading your NBA insights with great pleasure.
Thanks, but I think I know how you could have avoided making it sound like that.
Yesterday I was seeing 63% of bets placed on the Mets but the line had shifted 20 cents towards T.B. I hammered T.B. based just on that without capping the game at all. Worked. Lucky? Seems to work more than not. Today's games that fit the same scenario: Atlanta 29% of bets and line going up COL 42% and line falling Maybe the % even out more closer to game time?
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Yesterday I was seeing 63% of bets placed on the Mets but the line had shifted 20 cents towards T.B. I hammered T.B. based just on that without capping the game at all. Worked. Lucky? Seems to work more than not. Today's games that fit the same scenario: Atlanta 29% of bets and line going up COL 42% and line falling Maybe the % even out more closer to game time?
Here's my 2 cents on this. I was told many years ago that you bet with the early move and against the late move. The philosphy behind this was that the so called big money cappers would want to bet the early lines before they moved, because, as cappers, they had there own idea of what the line should have opened at. The late line moves are usually the last minute, John Q. Public's, that is just trying to get some action on a game.
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Here's my 2 cents on this. I was told many years ago that you bet with the early move and against the late move. The philosphy behind this was that the so called big money cappers would want to bet the early lines before they moved, because, as cappers, they had there own idea of what the line should have opened at. The late line moves are usually the last minute, John Q. Public's, that is just trying to get some action on a game.
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