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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: WBC sloppy lines = opportunity
iggy0865 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 3/9/2009 4:53:49 AM
Canada line is up at Pinnacle
Can -3 -110
Canada -700 Italy + 630
Over under is 8

How bout those Aussies? I would not want to be setting the line on their next game. Hopefully some sharp players cashed big on the moneyline.Must be a lot of sad faces in Mexico and some shrimps on the barbee down under. Now that all of these teams have played and the early fog of unknown chaos is beginning to clear the lines will tighten, and it is going to get more difficult going forward. There will be fewer opportunities, but I am confident they will be found. Back later with early leans. BTW H to H, WTF was up with that over/under (14.5) on the SA/Cuba game? Played out just like we thought. That was fish in a barrel baby! Hope you cashed big! That line was so sloppy it needed to be hosed down.

 Record for today 1-1, -2 units

WBC overall 6-3 +10 units
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#27
Posted: 3/9/2009 5:36:27 AM
I'm getting the feeling tonights win by the Aussies was no fluke. There is a short article here about the Mexico game, and I was really struck by the fearless trash talking from the Aussie manager. Could these guys be the real surprise of the tourney?
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#28
Posted: 3/9/2009 5:38:24 AM
not sure.
do you like the puerto rico -2.5 vs netherlands as much as i do?
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#29
Posted: 3/9/2009 6:29:06 AM
I'm kinda nervous to bet against The Netherlands after they edged the host in a shocker. There is a sea change happening in baseball. Unsuspecting countries are being surprised by the performance of so called crap teams and I would tend to favour making small dog plays with a good number going forward. It is just one game of baseball, and anyone can win. Keep in mind that the best MLB teams lose just under 40% of their games. I'm thinking about small upset plays with good return, and an overreaction to all the big numbers being put up, which should present some good spots for under betters. Leans coming.
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#30
Posted: 3/9/2009 6:40:18 AM
Correction- Netherlands did not edge the host, they beat Dominican Republic
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#31
Posted: 3/9/2009 6:48:37 AM
Aussies just need to find a couple of solid pitchers from somewhere in the future to be a real world force, we have really good batters but useless pitchers


I wonder what the line will be against Cuba?
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#32
Posted: 3/9/2009 7:28:34 AM
That is a good point, Ace. As I was working as a bartender tonight, I was not able to watch the game, but someone pointed out that it was an awesome victory for Australia, but they did allow seven runs. Makes me think that they might be a nice over pick going forward. If you have any other knowledge to  about your team , please share!! To my mind though, bad pitching + great hitting = over bet. Congrats to your boys on a stunning upset!
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#33
Posted: 3/9/2009 7:33:07 AM
Yeah your right,Aussies give up alot of runs but also score alot of runs,they have to beat teams by outscoring them,they cannot win with there pitching



Aussies seem pretty good for the overs,here is there last 4 games



Aussies 11
Mariners 9


Brewers 10
Aussies 5


WhiteSox 10
Aussies 3


Aussies 17
Mexico 7




Interesting to see what the total is for the Cuba match
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#34
Posted: 3/9/2009 7:56:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobooobobgtry:

Greenbacks remains on Fire.
Sunday was another successful day.
His daily play Orlando +4 cashes.
The service is Sizzling.
NBA 13-3...COLLEGE 18-6
OVERALL A WHOPPING 31-9
Only $25 for a 5 star play.
http://www.greenbackpicks.com/
Dude, no spamming here. This is a place for people, not salesmen. U been warned.
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#35
Posted: 3/9/2009 8:04:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ace77:

Yeah your right,Aussies give up alot of runs but also score alot of runs,they have to beat teams by outscoring them,they cannot win with there pitching



Aussies seem pretty good for the overs,here is there last 4 games

Aussies 11
Mariners 9


Brewers 10
Aussies 5


WhiteSox 10
Aussies 3


Aussies 17
Mexico 7

Thanks Ace! Maybe an angle has been found. We'll see what the number is, but it ain't gonna be no 7.5


Interesting to see what the total is for the Cuba match
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#36
Posted: 3/9/2009 8:31:23 AM
Early leans- like a couple of small plays on the dogs. Take a flyer on a longshot.

Strongest feeling is an over in the Can/Italy game.
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#37
Posted: 3/9/2009 8:37:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iggy0865:

Early leans- like a couple of small plays on the dogs. Take a flyer on a longshot.

Strongest feeling is an over in the Can/Italy game.
Don't touch SA though, Mexico gonna spank  them
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#38
Posted: 3/9/2009 8:59:50 AM

WBC overall 6-3 +10 units

Haven't locked in but here is what I'm thinkiing.

Netherlands +379 1 unit
Italy + 680 1 unit

like I said before, its a freakin ball game and anything can happen!

More seriously, I like the over in the Canada/Italy 8.5
4 units.
Canada has some serious bats who will be supported by a home crowd.

I like Mexico and the over all day, but my book has only posted Mexico   -$561 on the moneyline and I ain't gonna touch that. Will report back when I see a runline and total.
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#39
Posted: 3/9/2009 6:13:18 PM
locked in Netherlands +500 1 unit
Mexico - 5.5 -134 2 units
Canada - Italy under 9.5 2 units (line movement changed my play)
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#40
Posted: 3/10/2009 1:51:57 AM
Todays record 2-1 +3 units.
WBC overall 8-4 +13 units

Almost hit the Holland longshot as they went into the eighth ahead 1-0. Nice game from Italy, shoulda listened to myself on that one.

Locked in: early over bet on Cuba/Australia 6 units @ 10.5. I have a feeling that this number will go up, and I think this play has a strong chance. Leans a little later.
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#41
Posted: 3/10/2009 3:38:04 AM
Early leans for Tues. Thinking of taking all dogs on the runline. Each is paying about 5-1, so only one needs to hit to make a profit.
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#42
Posted: 3/10/2009 3:41:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by iggy0865:

Early leans for Tues. Thinking of taking all dogs on the runline. Each is paying about 5-1, so only one needs to hit to make a profit.
Sorry,that should be all dogs on the moneyline
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#43
Posted: 3/10/2009 7:06:20 AM
Locked in

6 units on the Cuba/Oz over

1 unit on each of the dogs
Italy +490
Netherlands + 560
Australia +590

Just need one barking dog to turn a profit. GLA
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#44
Posted: 3/10/2009 8:07:08 AM
Just a word about intensity. After watching the Mexico game I saw some atrocious fielding from a very talented Mexican team, and it got me to thinking. For the MLB guys who make millions a year, this tourney is like being allowed to go on a field trip, while most of your classmates have to stay in school. Many of these guys are thinking that they will easily smoke the early opposition, and they will kick it up when the games get intense. For teams like Australia, The Netherlands and Italy, this is the largest stage that many of these players will ever play on. For the teams loaded with MLB guys, they seem to be in a "look ahead" mentality. The North American and Carribean teams are most likely to be victims of this, with the exception of Cuba. As an example Canada did not start their best available pitcher on Monday, as they were anticipating an easy win and a game with Venezuela. Cuba is an exception, because they are a very good team with a true national program, that does not include lazyass overpaid MLB guys who think that they will find the groove when they need to. I'll take the Tortoise over The Hare at this point in the tourney.
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#45
Posted: 3/10/2009 10:27:57 AM
gotta love the overs in Aus Cuba I think Cuba will score 11 on their own and Aus will probably chip in at least 4 or 5...
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#46
Posted: 3/10/2009 10:40:31 AM
ace77 hi. are u turkish?
 
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#47
Posted: 3/10/2009 12:48:16 PM
The only thing is...with Venzuela and DR...they have to win to advance now. So they should be upping the level of play. I think all three favorites win today.
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#48
Posted: 3/10/2009 1:31:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by osi2008:

ace77 hi. are u turkish?
 




If by Turkish you mean Australian then yes im Turkish
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#49
Posted: 3/10/2009 1:33:44 PM
GL Iggy


Cuba/Oz should have a decent chance of going over
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#50
Posted: 3/10/2009 4:57:57 PM
anyone like over 8.5 in the italy game
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