Messages

Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: 5-INNING DISCUSSION THREAD FOR GAME 1
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#1
Posted: 10/21/2008 9:59:52 AM
Morning everyone......
 
This could be the last of 4 threads for the series.....
 
My take?.....Philly has 1-7 in the lineup too many offensive weapons that can put up 1-2 runs anytime; TBay needs to manufacture runs more and unless TB has Philly scouted better than LAD did; you could see this thing being over in 4-5 games.
 
This series is more about offense than pitching...Game 1 is a pretty good example...Two young exciting lefties...both could throw a no-no anytime...their stuff is superb. But, IMO, Kazmir has too be more perfect than Hamels...
 
Vegas sends out a total that says low scoring game....that gives another advantage to the offensive and home team.....
 
Game 1 should go to the Phils........and we'll learn from this game how to approach the rest.....Remember, INTERLEAGUE PLAY is always tougher to handicap.....
quote
PaintitPurple send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
PaintitPurple
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 765
Location:
#2
Posted: 10/21/2008 10:28:57 AM
Interesting stuff buddy... I am banking on Destiny though and going with TB to be the biggest worst to first in sports history. I just feel they will find a way to get it done.
quote
deerslayer
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
deerslayer
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 203
Location: Texas
#3
Posted: 10/21/2008 5:54:17 PM
OPC- where's everyone at. Can't believe no one has posted opinions and thots.  My first reaction is that they are all going to be nervous and will be low scoring, so I'm going with the under.  Hamels has been a machine and kazmir more eratic, so I' going small on the phil side. GL to everyone  
quote
psantana357 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
psantana357
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 7439
Location: Dominican
              Republic
#4
Posted: 10/21/2008 11:47:55 PM
tb rl n under 
quote
JEG53
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
JEG53
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20785
Location: California
#5
Posted: 10/22/2008 12:18:06 AM
Phils hit leftys better,also cant see a few HRs in game 1 at Philly which would be an over game.But how many times have we seen the team sitting around waiting for the other team to finish what turned into a tuff series for TB,come out flat and lose game 1.TB will have 2 days off,first to recover from hangovers,lol,next to get ready to play on Wed.Phils been waiting for 5 or so days waiting to see who they play.
So is TB more ready to play? Or is the Phils just more rested and ready to go,plus forget what I said about HRs in Philly as because of All Star win its in TB,lol.
But at least for first 5 innings Im thinking TB could be a good play and maybe the game,but it goes against what I think will happen in this series,Phils in 5 games.
Good thing Mr O is here to figure out this game for me,Im lost in stats and trends and homefield.So just do whatever Mr O does and we might make some money.GL All
 
Mr O,any series bet your thinking about?? 
quote
KeyElement
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
KeyElement
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 9379
Location: Arizona
#6
Posted: 10/22/2008 8:26:39 AM
The world loves a Cinderella as shown by their lining up squarely behind the Rays, even to the tune of Covers "experts" picking this one 6-0 for the Rays. Couple that with a 56% edge to the number of Rays backers at the betting window and the Rays should be a little higher than -105.
 
I am lining up behind Hamels because the Cinderella story is great and I was pulling for the Rays all the way through the playoffs, but facts are facts and there is no way Kazmir gives you the consistency or overhaul achievement Hamels shows. Granted, Kazmir looked terrific in Boston, and Boston hits lefties well, but the BoSox struggled with everyone down the stretch (as in Garza Sunday), and as amazing as that one was, it was Kazmir's only quality start in a month.  
 
Hamels has knocked out 6 straight quality starts for his club and has been an absolute rock in the playoffs. The Brewers and Dodgers (twice) were pretty good lefty hitting clubs and neither could touch him.
 
They have the Rays favored in the series and I think that is probably right, because the Phillie pitching drops off significantly after Hamels, but he is the right guy versus Kazmir and I have to back him tonight. GL2ALL. 
quote
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#7
Posted: 10/22/2008 11:13:58 AM
Agree with the KeyMeister here........
 
We can learn from tonite what we might see...offensively....as the Philly SP gets a little weaker....will the offense compensate?
 
I think that you see TB favored more for the fact that one extra game is played in TB if it goes 7 and Vegas has to take that into accout before the series.....
 
Frankly, as we find out twice a year...INTERLEAGUE PLAY can be very tough to handicap.......
quote
RoyMunson send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
RoyMunson
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1635
Location: New Jersey
#8
Posted: 10/22/2008 1:10:19 PM

Men vs Boys....it's that simple... phils should roll in this series...

Hamles -105!   how is TB getting so much love from vegas and public?  if you look at the last series, the Red Sox were down right AWFUL except for 2 or 3 innings in the whole series. The Red sox are an avg team that picked the wrong week to play and pitch like crap.   Phillies are 20-5 last 25 games and have played well everyday of every series and earned every win.  Barring major injury or sudden slump (which is why i'm betting light 1st game)  this series should go to the phils with a game to spare.  TB can't out hit the phils, and with the phils pen and closer, they will have a tough time out pitching them.  The over should be a decent bet throughout the series.  Should be fun.   

Small play-  F5 over 3.5/ hamels -105   GLA

quote
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#9
Posted: 10/22/2008 3:17:14 PM
Roy....
 
Your assessment of the current Red Sox team was pretty accurate....especially when you factor in Big Papi's injury took his bat, pretty much, out of play. I do think that TB has better #2 and #3 SP right now...but I am not as thrilled with their pen (not that it matters to us brilliant 5-inning bettors).....But for the series, I think that Maddon's bullpen-by-committee could be a problem.....
 
I want to see how TB pitches to hitters 1-4, that might offer some insight....
quote
jake21s send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
jake21s
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 1155
Location: United States
#10
Posted: 10/22/2008 3:48:21 PM

Even with two good pitchers are going don't you see high scoring game??

quote
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#11
Posted: 10/22/2008 3:57:30 PM
Vegas (LVSC) doesn't.....they are usually more right than wrong....But, I only look at 5-inning bets anyway....I would not be surprised with 1-0 or 2-1 after 5 innings.....
quote
RoyMunson send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
RoyMunson
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1635
Location: New Jersey
#12
Posted: 10/22/2008 4:56:35 PM
The over 3.5 has been -125 all day and has not moved.  That makes me nervous... seems every time I lay the big juice i lose.  I'm going to wait til game time to place my bets and see where they are....
quote
siroz28 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
siroz28
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 91
Location: California
#13
Posted: 10/22/2008 5:06:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrOPC:

Vegas (LVSC) doesn't.....they are usually more right than wrong....But, I only look at 5-inning bets anyway....I would not be surprised with 1-0 or 2-1 after 5 innings.....
you're right about that...  I think more in lines of 1-1 or 1-0
quote
backdooor_cover send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
backdooor_cover
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 5607
Location: Hawaii
#14
Posted: 10/22/2008 5:12:54 PM
what i have heard is that in the beginning of the year there was a lot of wagers made for tampa to win the world series at 200/1 for your money.  Now that the rays are in the world series, books are getting a little worried and are trying to get players to lay money on philly to win the series so that they can try to make up for some pontential loss.
 
I don't know if that made any sense to anyone but I am cheering for the flying hawaiian to do well.  I want our homeboy to win the series now that i dont have to be a fan first. (I'm over it already)  Honestly no one here in hawaii at least, is excited about this series.  There has been no talk about victorino or how exciting the series is going to be.  All they care about here is UH football and what are the Dallas cowboys going to do with the QB situation.  Its unfortunate but its the harsh reality that MLB is going to have to face.
 
Good luck guys as i will make a small play on philly G and first 5 over.  More just to have a little excitement while trying to find the game here on cable.  Someone has to have it on there TV station here.
quote
bj22
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bj22
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 1448
Location: United States
#15
Posted: 10/22/2008 5:57:36 PM
How much future action do you really think is on TB to win the ws from opening day? If they say they did they are lying.I dont see vegas running to cover those bets there just can't be that many to make a difference.
quote
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#16
Posted: 10/22/2008 6:31:03 PM
Backdoor........
 
That future bet was talked about a lot this last week out here.....compared to the Blue Jays, for instance, TB took very, very little money as a future bet.......The books are way ahead BECAUSE it ended up Philly and Tampa Bay......
quote
backdooor_cover send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
backdooor_cover
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 5607
Location: Hawaii
#17
Posted: 10/22/2008 6:47:07 PM
Well being that im here in hawaii we are always the last to hear things anyways.  Besides its not like we have internet out here.  Afterall i do live in a grass shack
 
Ok thanks for the clarifying that for me.
quote
JEG53
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
JEG53
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20785
Location: California
#18
Posted: 10/22/2008 6:57:05 PM

I see alot of gamblers at work and because I work for one of the big chains see people from all over the world,esp.now with our money being so bad,but lots of US people and most are wishing they had money on TB to just get to the WS.Ive hear diff.lines fron 50-1 up to 75-1 to get there,this is not to say backdooor is wrong,but no one seems to have a bet on TB.NYY-Red Sox were the most futures bets mentioned and Ari.was probally the most NL team that I heard,which might have been OK without the 2 best hitters getting hurt early in season.

My over has moved to 4 now with the under juice at -120,just seems low esp.Roys 3.5,but in the first game it seems like its a coinflip either way.Hate those low totals,because I get screwed every time I go over. 

quote
Aussieguy send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Aussieguy
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2982
Location: Australia
#19
Posted: 10/22/2008 7:51:14 PM
Mr.O  Loved reading your thoughts and your take on this mate! Nice lateral thinking and good analysis. Also I agree very strongly with the fact  that interleague games are very tough to handicap. Let's see how this 1st one goes first ....
Good luck brother
quote
RoyMunson send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
RoyMunson
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1635
Location: New Jersey
#20
Posted: 10/22/2008 8:04:03 PM
too confusing.... i'll stick with hamels F5....   pass on O/U

good luck all. ... Love Oct Baseball!  lets see a classic tonight!!

quote
JEG53
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
JEG53
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20785
Location: California
#21
Posted: 10/22/2008 10:01:39 PM
Well going to top of 5th,Key and Mr O only need 3 outs for our first win,3-1 with the Phils batting.Looks like the over was a good bet also because the worst that would happen is a push now.Lets hope Hamel has 1 more inning in him,hes gotten a couple big DPs to help him out.
Have to say,Howard is having the worst postseason of any Phils player and they are in the WS,who would have thought that would happen. 
quote
JEG53
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
JEG53
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20785
Location: California
#22
Posted: 10/22/2008 10:36:14 PM
Thanks Guys,Phils F-5 a winner,1-0 to start the series.
quote
mgm send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mgm
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 20
Location: Nevada
#23
Posted: 10/22/2008 10:41:16 PM
i remember when pitchers used to waste a pitch or two on 2 strikes. alot of hits with 2 strikes
quote
MrOPC send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
MrOPC
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 5945
Location: Nevada
#24
Posted: 10/22/2008 10:48:55 PM
Aussie Aussie Aussie.......come to Vegas, Mate!!
 
The score should have been at least 6-2, instead of 3-2....
 
Hopefully, 5Dimes will still pay off
 
 
See ya tomorrow........I've got fresh bagels and great cream cheese....
quote
JEG53
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
JEG53
Participation Meter
Hall of Fame
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20785
Location: California
#25
Posted: 10/22/2008 11:56:42 PM
if the Phils need Howard to do anything their in trouble,
quote
Forum Index : MLB Betting : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.