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I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)

Forum: NHL Betting Page 10 of 15 «  8 9 10 11 12   »
Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)
Lippsman PM Lippsman
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quote#226
Posted: 9/14/2010 8:42:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I-Got-5-On-It:

Hey Lippsman

I know you're a fan of NFL teasers but what do you think of reverse puck lines, especially ones where you turn a favourite into a +1.5 dog ??

One loss will take out about 5 wins.

Hudini PM Hudini
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quote#227
Posted: 9/21/2010 11:32:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

You get it back by winning and when you start to win a again those wagers go back up day by day.

Only problem is how to pick winner under and over have good line. We will see when NHL start
I_Need_A_Detox PM I_Need_A_Detox
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quote#228
Posted: 3/28/2011 12:44:23 PM
EstakaBriones PM EstakaBriones
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quote#229
Posted: 3/28/2011 2:27:57 PM
Lippsman great advice ...like collectNOW mentions "mission statement" is hard to do. It should be mandatory reading for a covers newbie .
wiggins PM wiggins
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quote#230
Posted: 3/28/2011 5:16:32 PM

how was your playoff dog system last year lipps?

I-Got-5-On-It PM I-Got-5-On-It
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quote#231
Posted: 6/11/2011 5:56:46 PM

I'm talking to 5 posters now, 3 here and two others on other boards about making thier own -1 lines because thier book doesn't offer them.

I believe I need to go over these again, because I just see too much money flying at these huge ML's.

Here is a conversation I'm having with a bettor that just joined the daily pucks thread here right now.

-------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you keep it going also.  But if I may give some advice.  Stay away from laying those huge ML's.  They will just kill ya.  You notice how I played the Caps and Nucks but played -1 lines ? Also see what Zamboni played ?  It gets the juice way down,  I made two dogs out of two favs.

I see you played the Nucks on the ML and PL.  You in fact just made your own -1 line by playing that. It's just the amounts you played on each to even it out.

If I may ?

If you wanted to win $100, you would wager $50.82 on the ML and $32.79.  You have wagered only $83.61 to win $100 !!!!!

You should do this on any big juice game.  I consider laying big juice at -140 or more. But of course you could also play a -.5 line that will get the juice down also.

------------------------------------------------------

In some cases, making your own -1 line is actually cheaper than taking the -1 at books that offer them.  All two or 3 of them I think.

Here is the formula for making them.

100x/(x+1)     where x = ml
 
if you plan on betting $100 on a game with -1.30 ml and +1.60 pl
 
 
100(1.30)/(1.3 + 1)
=130/2.3
=$56 on the ml........therefore $44 on pl
 
works out to approx. +1.15 for the -1 spread

-------------------------------------------------------

I have been setting on this for awhile.  But OK....if you want an Excel spreadsheet where you can just plug in the numbers, PM me.  You don't have to be a friend, anyone can PM a mod.  I will e-mail you the sheet.

You can put in the amount you want to wager or the amount you want to win.

     Lippsman's -1 conversion formula

just posting it in here for future reference for other posters

topcat69 PM topcat69
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quote#232
Posted: 6/13/2011 12:17:46 AM
Thanks for the knowledge
Fortmax PM Fortmax
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quote#233
Posted: 6/13/2011 3:45:06 AM
Thank  you sir !
Sosana PM Sosana
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quote#234
Posted: 6/13/2011 2:40:20 PM

Great Advice Lipps,

Problem for most is the gamblin demon that comes alive when they loose...aka chase their money after a loss...In time I believe most long term players will learn from this but others never will..

BOL Brother

knowitall101 PM knowitall101
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quote#235
Posted: 6/13/2011 4:41:41 PM
wow Great write up brother will try and do that make it a lil easyer on myself!
ghostfaceripper PM ghostfaceripper
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quote#236
Posted: 6/13/2011 4:49:27 PM

isn't this common sense?  I learned from my mistakes and thats what makes a gambler get better.  If u keep making the same mistakes over and over again u have to adjust.  Juz use your brain.......I know it sucks but it works.

Lippsman PM Lippsman
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quote#237
Posted: 10/2/2011 11:40:57 AM

For the 2011-12 season.

Best of skill to everyone.

I will be watching.

 

SUP3RMAN PM SUP3RMAN
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quote#238
Posted: 10/2/2011 12:35:11 PM
Well said lippsman, lets have a good NHL season this year! 
Johnnypicks PM Johnnypicks
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quote#239
Posted: 10/2/2011 6:58:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by I-Got-5-On-It:

     Lippsman's -1 conversion formula

just posting it in here for future reference for other posters

 

Johnnypicks PM Johnnypicks
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quote#240
Posted: 10/2/2011 6:59:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

For the 2011-12 season. Best of skill to everyone.

I will be watching.

WeMoveLines PM WeMoveLines
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quote#241
Posted: 10/2/2011 10:11:16 PM

Well said Lippsman - I am going to follow this strategy this season..

The-OG-GunClapa PM The-OG-GunClapa
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quote#242
Posted: 10/2/2011 10:55:25 PM
love seeing this
always reminds me hockeys back
By far the most valuable thread on covers.
chaseedwards PM chaseedwards
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quote#243
Posted: 10/3/2011 3:30:55 PM
You have to go on pretty terrible run to go tap if you follow bankroll management.  Gambling like everything else in life is discipline.  Being selective in teams as well, there's a lot of games every night you don't have to bet the board.

As for juice I stick to O/U in hockey, never get hit that bad on those.
HoldenRg PM HoldenRg
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quote#244
Posted: 10/4/2011 6:23:34 PM
I agree completely my man. I follow the percentage rule and have profit every season


PEACE!
bamabilly PM bamabilly
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quote#245
Posted: 10/4/2011 7:00:22 PM
     Thank you, Sensei Lippsman! Your original post is one of, if not the very most informative and intelligent posts that I have ever seen. I look forward to applying these principles to the NHL season. You have given us some very sound advice. I have been guilty of lacking discipline in the past and will seek to change that in 2011/2012.

Good luck this season and I am looking forward to reading more posts and plays from you.
                                                                              
3wizard9 PM 3wizard9
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quote#246
Posted: 10/4/2011 8:32:53 PM

OnlyGod PM OnlyGod
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quote#247
Posted: 10/4/2011 9:47:45 PM
Sounds good you must have the discipline of an experienced warrior to make this work.
Lippsman PM Lippsman
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quote#248
Posted: 10/4/2011 10:23:54 PM

I do and that's what you need to gamble. You can't think of it as money.  You will be become emotionally involved.  When that happens you will become irrational and make errors in your picks and money management.

Scared money is lost money.

Stay the course.

tommy_covers PM tommy_covers
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quote#249
Posted: 10/5/2011 12:40:17 AM
great stuff Mr. Lippsman .... I will be watching as well lets get it 
gomburzago PM gomburzago
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quote#250
Posted: 1/29/2012 11:33:59 PM
what about if you are like 90% sure that a team is going to win or cover the spread? Would it not be justifiable to double the wagering amount?
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