Why is OTTAWA only -110 for game 4 ???? WHO WINS TONIGHT ???

Forum: NHL Betting
Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Why is OTTAWA only -110 for game 4 ???? WHO WINS TONIGHT ???
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/19/2017 12:55:15 PM
Hmmmmmmmm

The SENS just dominated game 3  !!!!

Why only -110 ????

Thought they would be at least -165 ......



WHO WINS TONIGHT ???
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:02:01 PM
Anyways here is a Juicy pick 4 at woodbine today 

WOODBINE 
  20 CENT PICK 4
TWICE

RACE 4


RACE 4    1,2,5,6
RACE 5     3,6
RACE 6     1,3,6,7  
RACE 7     1,4,7,8

COST $25.60/51.20
bpickin PM bpickin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:29:15 PM
Pitt 
freestlyin PM freestlyin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:38:44 PM
Imo....Public perception of the Penguins being superior to the Senators, the supposed "must win" scenario, as well as the fact that when Murray came in the game was 4-0 and ended 5-1 so essentially an even game for more than 2/3 of the game. That coupled with the fact that the home team only tends to win Game 4 55% of the time in the given AAHH (WLW) scenario. Anything over Ottawa -120 would be a huge over reaction IMO and the books know people will automatically bet Pitt so why not charge them extra juice on a game that is essentially a coin flip historically speaking. 
VitoPuck PM VitoPuck
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:49:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by freestlyin:

Imo....Public perception of the Penguins being superior to the Senators, the supposed "must win" scenario, as well as the fact that when Murray came in the game was 4-0 and ended 5-1 so essentially an even game for more than 2/3 of the game. That coupled with the fact that the home team only tends to win Game 4 55% of the time in the given AAHH (WLW) scenario. Anything over Ottawa -120 would be a huge over reaction IMO and the books know people will automatically bet Pitt so why not charge them extra juice on a game that is essentially a coin flip historically speaking. 

 
freestlyin PM freestlyin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 1:50:53 PM
Also for completely "dominating" Ottawa scored 4 goals on 12 shots in the first period...and then managed to only outshoot Pitt 17-16 the rest of the way. Not advocating a play on Pitt by any means but just offering further explanation into my opinion as to why the line is what it is
fitchris562 PM fitchris562
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:24:50 PM
Give me the better team. Senators ML should come out on top.
Posted using a mobile device.
potvin PM potvin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:25:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Hmmmmmmmm

The SENS just dominated game 3  !!!!

Why only -110 ????

Thought they would be at least -165 ......



WHO WINS TONIGHT ???

people were pondering these thoughts last week after the oilers beat the ducks 7-1. granted the next game was in Anaheim. by the the way, the ducks did win the next game. it is easy for a game to get away from you, with a few quick goals but when the puck is dropped tonight it will be 0-0 and there will be 60 minutes on the clock.i doubt the defending champs are going to think game 3 as nothing more than a loss. and if the sens are smart should think last game nothing more than winning 1 game.although I think looking at injuries might be more important here, (which I haven't done yet). I would love to see pitt+145 for tonight because my day would be over. yes, no matter what happened last game I would assume to make a profit at pitt+145 for a 10 game series, which is how I look at moneylines.no I can't give you tonights winner but can stress do not get cocky about it.good luck whichever route you go! 

Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:30:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by freestlyin:

Imo....Public perception of the Penguins being superior to the Senators, the supposed "must win" scenario, as well as the fact that when Murray came in the game was 4-0 and ended 5-1 so essentially an even game for more than 2/3 of the game. That coupled with the fact that the home team only tends to win Game 4 55% of the time in the given AAHH (WLW) scenario. Anything over Ottawa -120 would be a huge over reaction IMO and the books know people will automatically bet Pitt so why not charge them extra juice on a game that is essentially a coin flip historically speaking. 

Very astute.  Good post 
LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:33:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by freestlyin:

 ..and then managed to only outshoot Pitt 17-16 the rest of the way.  
That's misleading as well - score effects predicts and explains that.

Over the years, hockey analysts have noticed a common trend in the way teams play with a lead and when they are trailing. It’s called Score Effects.

The idea behind Score Effects: When a team has a lead of two or more goals in the first or second period or even just one goal in the third period, it tends to protect that lead. Often, the leading team will go into a defensive shell and be much less aggressive offensively. The leading team takes fewer risks in order to avoid giving up a goal. The team trailing in these situations tends to be much more aggressive offensively, taking more risks to score and get back in the game.

rml PM rml
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:41:23 PM
public fooled by pens and betting anyway!!!
they think crosby and malkin can make up for
key injuries!!! caps toasted them for this series!!!
very beat up on d, they carry puck up ice for cros and malkin
but they bet pens anyway  and give us great value on sens!!!!
take advantage the sens will!!
freestlyin PM freestlyin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:54:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LooseNotLose:

That's misleading as well - score effects predicts and explains that.

Over the years, hockey analysts have noticed a common trend in the way teams play with a lead and when they are trailing. It’s called Score Effects.

The idea behind Score Effects: When a team has a lead of two or more goals in the first or second period or even just one goal in the third period, it tends to protect that lead. Often, the leading team will go into a defensive shell and be much less aggressive offensively. The leading team takes fewer risks in order to avoid giving up a goal. The team trailing in these situations tends to be much more aggressive offensively, taking more risks to score and get back in the game.


Completely agree and I knew I should have just left my first post and gone on my way...I just think "dominated" is a buzz word especially in this situation...the sens scored on 3 consecutive shots and clearly had Fleury rattled...once things settled down it was a really even game. If you look at 56 of the 60 minutes the score was 1-1 with essentially all statistical aspects being very close to even
freestlyin PM freestlyin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:55:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:


Very astute.  Good post 

Thank you sir 
potvin PM potvin
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:12:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rml:

public fooled by pens and betting anyway!!!
they think crosby and malkin can make up for
key injuries!!! caps toasted them for this series!!!
very beat up on d, they carry puck up ice for cros and malkin
but they bet pens anyway  and give us great value on sens!!!!
take advantage the sens will!!

aren't you the one in marcus thread last night swearing the preds would kick azz? and for the caps last series till it was over, atleast we got a break from your mouth for awhile. now, I have to root for pens to get break #2

ramboo PM ramboo
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Posted: 5/19/2017 4:18:41 PM
I dont know what you expected? They were -310 ish to win the series before it started 
docpj72 PM docpj72
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Posted: 5/19/2017 5:23:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ramboo:

I dont know what you expected? They were -310 ish to win the series before it started 
LeRinkRat PM LeRinkRat
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Posted: 5/19/2017 5:44:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ramboo:

I dont know what you expected? They were -310 ish to win the series before it started 


Hell the Penguins LOWEST opening odds were -320 @ South Point here in Las Vegas. were -340 @ Westgate and William-Hill. that dropped to -250 pre-game one @ Westgate
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