March NHL Player Props

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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: March NHL Player Props
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/4/2017 3:38:21 PM
Hockey to date: 60 bets, $6000 risked, $268.52 profit, 4.5% ROI

I use the "$100 risked per bet" only as a visual.  It is not the amount that I bet.  Player props are generally capped pretty low, so pro bettors should be betting the maximum every time instead of worrying about unit sizing.

More money to be made today.  Here are some of the good bets out there.  All lines taken from Bovada.

Shea Weber under 2.5 shots on goal +100
Max Pacioretty under 3.5 shots on goal -105
Rick Nash under 3 shots on goal -110
Cam Atkinson under 3 shots on goal +110
Erik Karlsson under 3 shots on goal -125
Jakub Voracek under 3 shots on goal +100
T.J. Oshie under 2.5 shots on goal -130
Patrick Kane under 3.5 shots on goal +120
Artemi Panarin under 2.5 shots on goal +100


BostonEagle PM BostonEagle
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Posted: 3/4/2017 5:22:13 PM
good return if in a CD bank account, not so when risking money this way
BostonEagle PM BostonEagle
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Posted: 3/4/2017 5:24:27 PM

good return if in a CD bank account, not so when risking money this way

forget about these silly props, what games meanings sides do you have tonight?  Especially the underdogs that you are taking.

BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/4/2017 5:36:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BostonEagle:

good return if in a CD bank account, not so when risking money this way

You aren't thinking about this correctly.  This isn't a 4.5% ROI on the entire bankroll.  It's a 4.5% ROI per bet (for my picks that I posted on Covers so far).  My overall prop betting ROI over the last year is 7%. 

You can't have any safe investment that returns 4.5-7% while tying up that money for about 3 hours.
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/4/2017 5:39:11 PM
This notion of props being "silly" are what have provided me the opportunity to make over 1,000 units in the last year. 
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/4/2017 5:49:23 PM
The ROI of the entire bankroll over the course of a year is over 1000% (10x) if done properly.  That would be the proper comparison to a bank account.
VANBUCK PM VANBUCK
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Posted: 3/4/2017 7:54:14 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by BetPlayerProps] Hockey to date: 60 bets, $6000 risked, $268.52 profit, 4.5% ROI

I use the "$100 risked per bet" only as a visual.  It is not the amount that I bet.  Player props are generally capped pretty low, so pro bettors should be betting the maximum every time instead of worrying about unit sizing.

More money to be made today.  Here are some of the good bets out there.  All lines taken from Bovada.

Shea Weber under 2.5 shots on goal +100
Max Pacioretty under 3.5 shots on goal -105
Rick Nash under 3 shots on goal -110
Cam Atkinson under 3 shots on goal +110
Erik Karlsson under 3 shots on goal -125
Jakub Voracek under 3 shots on goal +100
T.J. Oshie under 2.5 shots on goal -130
Patrick Kane under 3.5 shots on goal +120
Artemi Panarin under 2.5 shots on goal +100


60 bets $6000 risked  $268.52 profit.  

You're up 2.68 units?  
  


BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/5/2017 12:51:22 PM
I can put my results in terms of units.  Hockey to date:

69 bets (risking 1 unit each): +6.46 units, 9.4% ROI
Freddy666 PM Freddy666
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Posted: 3/5/2017 1:40:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BetPlayerProps:

I can put my results in terms of units.  Hockey to date:

69 bets (risking 1 unit each): +6.46 units, 9.4% ROI
   Prove it in the NHL CONTEST here on covers, and enough for the Talking...
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/5/2017 1:48:43 PM
Link?

I'm only interested if it's player props.  That is my specialty. 
RussianRocket11 PM RussianRocket11
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Posted: 3/5/2017 1:52:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BetPlayerProps:

Link?

I'm only interested if it's player props.  That is my specialty. 


you must be killing in in the DFS world, yea?
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/5/2017 2:05:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RussianRocket11:



you must be killing in in the DFS world, yea?

I focus my time on player props because I believe they are a softer market.  With Rotogrinders, Rotowire, etc, DFS is more "solved".  That's not to say you can't make good money at DFS, of course.

I believe my time is better spent on player props, but honestly, I haven't looked into Hockey DFS at all.  Just the other sports.
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/5/2017 3:19:17 PM
Today's most profitable plays.  All lines taken from Bodog:

Johnny Boychuk under 2.5 shots on goal -115
Cam Atkinson under 3 shots on goal +110
Joe Pavelski under 3.5 shots on goal -125
Loui Eriksson under 2 shots on goal +110
Jeff Skinner over 3 shots on goal -130
Max Domi under 2 shots on goal +110
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/6/2017 1:02:37 AM
All sports to date: 191 bets, +16.89 units, 8.8% ROI
NBA to date: 117 bets, +9.43 units, 8.1% ROI
NHL to date: 74 bets, +7.46 units, 10.1% ROI

For the record, a push counts as a valid bet with a 0% ROI.  Any bet that is voided due to injury (like Boychuk today) is excluded from the sample entirely, because that money is never risked.
elvisfan123 PM elvisfan123
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Posted: 3/6/2017 8:39:13 AM
3-1-1 yesterday. 

 7-1-1 Saturday

Hmmmm....interested on how you determine....




BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/6/2017 11:44:30 AM
I want to immediately correct the record here before someone thinks I did this on purpose.  Cam Atkinson was a push, not a win.  I saw 2 shots on goal for him yesterday when the game ended, so there was probably a stat correction (or I read the wrong column yesterday).  So I am up 6.36 units in hockey, not 7.46.
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/6/2017 11:57:05 AM
Updated record:

All sports to date: 191 bets, +15.79 units, 8.3% ROI
NBA to date: 117 bets, +9.43 units, 8.1% ROI
NHL to date: 74 bets, +6.36 units, 8.6% ROI
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/6/2017 4:21:44 PM
Disclaimer: if you take my picks, you will be more likely to make money, but you will also be more likely to get your account limited.  The more picks of mine you take, the more risk you have in being identified as a sharp bettor.  I am willing to discuss this more via PM, but I am done mentioning that on this public forum.  Here are today's picks, taken from Bodog:

David Pastrnak under 3 shots on goal +100
Erik Karlsson under 3 shots on goal -125
Derick Brassard under 2.5 shots on goal -130
Alexandre Burrows under 2 shots on goal +110
Tyler Seguin under 3.5 shots on goal +110
Alex Ovechkin under 4 shots on goal +120
Joe Pavelski under 3.5 shots on goal -125
Patrik Laine under 3 shots on goal -115

BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/7/2017 3:08:16 PM
Some good ones for today, taken from Bodog:

Aleksander Barkov over 2 shots on goal -140
Rickard Rakell under 2.5 shots on goal -115
Corey Perry under 3 shots on goal -125
Max Pacioretty under 3.5 shots on goal -110
Bo Horvat under 2 shots on goal -105

-------------------------
Prior to today's action:

NBA to date: 130 bets, +11.76 units, 9.0% ROI
NHL to date: 82 bets, +5.36 units, 6.5% ROI
All sports to date: 212 bets, +17.12 units, 8.1% ROI


BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/8/2017 5:03:22 PM
Today's plays:

Tomas Tatar under 2 shots on goal +110
Gustav Nyquist under 2.5 shots on goal -150
Dylan Larkin under 2 shots on goal +120
Evgeni Malkin under 3 shots on goal +115
Sidney Crosby under 3.5 shots on goal +100
Mike Hoffman over 3 shots on goal +100
Alexandre Burrows under 2 shots on goal +110
Tyler Seguin under 3.5 Shots on goal +120
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/9/2017 4:12:17 PM
A little extra info about my picks: I find every bet that I expect to be profitable and I bet it.  My strategy as a professional is to win the most units, not to try to avoid marginal spots.  Here are today's profitable bets.  All lines taken from Bodog.

Mats Zuccarello under 2.5 shots on goal -110
Victor Rask under 2.5 shots on goal -120
Wayne Simmonds over 2.5 shots on goal +105
Nino Niederreiter under 2.5 shots on goal -120
Eric Staal under 2.5 shots on goal -110
Jonathan Toews under 3 shots on goal -120
Artemi Panarin under 2.5 shots on goal -110
Max Pacioretty under 3.5 shots on goal -110
Filip Forsberg under 3 shots on goal -105
Kevin Shatternkirk under 2.5 shots on goal -125
Nicklas Backstrom under 2 shots on goal -115
Joe Pavelski under 3 shots on goal -110
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/10/2017 2:37:33 PM
Some poor variance in hockey so far.  I don't have losing months, but I do sometimes have losing weeks.  The overall ROI will go back up towards 7%.  50 bets a day @ 7% ROI means +1000 units a year.  That's always the goal.

NBA to date: 153 bets, $1314.33 profit, +13.14 units, 8.6% ROI
NHL to date: 107 bets, $35.75 profit, +0.36 units, 0.3% ROI
All sports to date: 260 bets, $1350.08 profit, +13.50 units, 5.2% ROI
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/10/2017 5:14:07 PM
Today's profitable plays.  All lines taken from Bodog.

Ryan Kesler under 2.5 shots on goal -110
Corey Perry under 3 shots on goal -125
Vladimir Tarasenko under 3.5 shots on goal -110
Sidney Crosby under 3.5 shots on goal -105
Jordan Eberle under 2.5 shots on goal -110
Leon Draisaitl under 2.5 shots on goal -125
Connor McDavid under 3 shots on goal -110
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/11/2017 2:03:06 PM
Two bets for the early game:

Filip Forsberg under 3.5 shots on goal +125
Joe Pavelski under 3 shots on goal +110
BetPlayerProps PM BetPlayerProps
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Posted: 3/11/2017 5:31:53 PM
More value, taken from Bovada:

Mike Hoffman over 3 shots on goal +100
Evander Kane under 3 shots on goal -130
Anders Lee under 2.5 shots on goal -130
T.J. Oshie under 2.5 shots on goal -130
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