Professor MJ's daily NHL projections (statistical models)

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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: Professor MJ's daily NHL projections (statistical models)
Powerz PM Powerz
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Posted: 3/9/2017 11:55:25 AM
Nice write up's MJ - Good luck with your picks.

For you notes Paul Maurice is the coach in WINNIPEG, Bill Peters is the coach in Carolina.

GL Powerz
Coin86 PM Coin86
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Posted: 3/9/2017 3:39:07 PM
I might go with Preds in this one. Thanks again
MaurickRBI PM MaurickRBI
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Posted: 3/9/2017 4:03:55 PM
I like them. I like these predictions Professor-MJ
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/10/2017 12:10:59 PM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!  

Here are today’s projections:  

SABRES-JACKETS (Pinnacle +197 vs -220, Prof MJ +213 vs -213)
HAWKS-WINGS (Pinnacle -144 vs +130, Prof MJ -154 vs +154)
WILD-PANTHERS (Pinnacle +106 vs -117, Prof MJ -103 vs +103)
DUCKS-BLUES (Pinnacle +131 vs -145, Prof MJ +147 vs -147)
PENGUINS-OILERS (Pinnacle -115 vs +104, Prof MJ -138 vs +138) 

I’m taking the Penguins -115 (decimal odds = 1.87) in Edmonton. I was able to get better odds when the line opened (-110 or 1.91), but the bet is still profitable right now. Cam Talbot usually starts a maximum of 6 consecutive starts. Since we have now reached that figure, we may see backup Laurent Brossoit in net which would be great news if you bet Pittsburgh. Talbot’s numbers (2.40 GAA with a .919 save percentage) are significantly better than Brossoit’s (2.90 GAA with a .910 save percentage). Patric Hornqvist is likely out along with Letang and Maatta for Pittsburgh, so the newly acquired defencemen Mark Streit and Ron Hainsey will turn out to be more valuable additions. The Pens are currently riding a 3-game winning streak, while Edmonton has won 3 of its last 7 games. Pittsburgh has won the last 2 meetings with the Oilers in Edmonton.  

I am not officially picking the Wild in Florida, but if the line moves to +110 (decimal odds = 2.10) or higher, I would recommend it. Minnesota would normally be the favorite, but a few things are going against them. First, they are playing the second leg of back-to-back games (3rd in 4 nights), while the Panthers are coming off two days’ rest. Also, Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the nod: his numbers are a lot worse than Dubnyk’s. If you hear that Dubnyk gets the start and the line doesn’t move very much, then please jump on Minnesota. Both teams have been struggling of late: Minnesota has lost 3 out of their last 4 games, while Florida has lost 6 of 7. What’s weird is prior to this bad streak the Panthers had won 8 out of 9 games!  

Good luck!!!  

Professor MJ
Eprince PM Eprince
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Posted: 3/10/2017 1:34:49 PM
I would be COMPLETELY STUNNED if Talbot doesn't start for the Oilers tonight, he he doesn't, I'll back the truck up and bet on Pitty. 
Eprince PM Eprince
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Posted: 3/10/2017 1:36:35 PM
Just checked: Talbot is confirmed for tonight 
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/10/2017 5:20:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Eprince:

I would be COMPLETELY STUNNED if Talbot doesn't start for the Oilers tonight, he he doesn't, I'll back the truck up and bet on Pitty. 

You were right, he is starting! So I like the Pens only moderately.
limitup PM limitup
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Posted: 3/10/2017 5:59:39 PM
Do you handicap & post MLB ?
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/13/2017 3:24:20 PM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!  

Surprisingly we only have 1 profitable bet out of 8 games today. However, you should keep track of the line on 4 additional games: you will find some guidelines below about how to proceed on those matches. Let’s have a look at the full projections for today:  

LIGHTNING-RANGERS (Pinnacle +119 vs -131, Prof MJ +144 vs -144)
JACKETS-FLYERS (Pinnacle -120 vs +109, Prof MJ -130 vs +130)
HURRICANES-ISLANDERS (Pinnacle +109 vs -120, Prof MJ +122 vs -122)
JETS-PREDATORS (Pinnacle +141 vs -156, Prof MJ +153 vs -153)
PENS-FLAMES (Pinnacle -108 vs -102, Prof MJ +125 vs -125)
BRUINS-CANUCKS (Pinnacle -209 vs +187, Prof MJ -179 vs +179)
AVALANCHE-COYOTES (Pinnacle +112 vs -124, Prof MJ +130 vs -130)
BLUES-KINGS (Pinnacle +149 vs -165, Prof MJ +152 vs -152)

The only value bet as of now is Calgary at -102 (decimal odds 1.98) versus Pittsburgh. The Penguins have to deal with several injuries: Carl Hagelin, Matt Cullen, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang, Trevor Daley and Olli Maatta. It is possible that some of them may play tonight, but the general health situation isn’t very good for the Pens. I’m surprised they have decided to send Marc-Andre Fleury in net, especially with Murray just recording a shutout in Vancouver. Murray has been the better of the two goalies by far this season, and Fleury will be facing a Calgary squad that has won its last 9 contests. Pittsburgh has a 5-game winning streak of its own, but I’m afraid the injury bug will catch on to them. The only meeting between the two teams this season went to Calgary by a 3-2 score in Pittsburgh. It’s interesting to note that Pittsburgh had beaten Calgary 9 straight times, but have then lost the last 3 matchups. The line opened with Pittsburgh as the favorite, but has switched to Calgary despite most bets from the public going on Pittsburgh.  

As mentioned in the introduction, here are 4 games where you could end up betting if you follow the line movement until game time:  

  • Bet the Rangers against Tampa if the line moves to -127 (decimal odds 1.79) or higher.
  • Bet the Blue Jackets in Philly if the line moves to -115 (decimal odds 1.87) or higher.
  • Bet the Canucks versus Boston if the line moves to +195 (decimal odds 2.95) or higher.
  • Bet the Coyotes versus Colorado if the line moves to -115 (decimal odds 1.87) or higher.

Thanks for reading and have a great Monday!

Professor MJ
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/13/2017 3:26:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by limitup:

Do you handicap & post MLB ?

Yes, but I may not be ready for the start of the season, just overwhelmed with my NBA and NHL projections.
SBT PM SBT
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Posted: 3/13/2017 7:27:56 PM
What is your record and units won/loss with your NHL picks you're going with so far? Thanks for taking the time to do the detail write-ups. Appreciate it!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/14/2017 2:39:03 PM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

A winter storm in New Jersey has forced the league to postpone the game, but we still have 8 games to enjoy tonight. Based on my projections, I have 3 profitable bets to recommend. You will find all the details below:

WILD-CAPITALS (Pinnacle +120 vs -133, Prof MJ +109 vs -109)
ISLANDERS-HURRICANES (Pinnacle +107 vs -118, Prof MJ -120 vs +120)
BLACKHAWKS-CANADIENS (Pinnacle +100 vs -110, Prof MJ +103 vs -103)
LIGHTNING-SENATORS (Pinnacle +113 vs -125, Prof MJ +153 vs -153)
LEAFS-PANTHERS (Pinnacle -109 vs -101, Prof MJ +101 vs -101)
STARS-OILERS (Pinnacle +149 vs -165, Prof MJ +184 vs -184)
COYOTES-KINGS (Pinnacle +239 vs -270, Prof MJ +269 vs -269)
SABRES-SHARKS (Pinnacle +188 vs -210, Prof MJ +213 vs -213)

My best pick of the day goes to the Islanders at +107 (decimal 2.07) in Carolina. Here are Doug Weight’s words (the Islanders head coach) after yesterday’s 8-4 loss against those same Hurricanes: “We just made tomorrow the biggest game of the year.” This will be the Islanders’ players mindset tonight. In 3 meetings this season, the Hurricanes have won them all: 8-4, 5-4 and 7-4. That’s 20 goals in just 3 games! I’m sure the Islanders are pissed and will be highly motivated tonight. It is also fairly likely that Eddie Lack will start for the Canes (a significant drop compared to Cam Ward).

I suggest taking the Senators at -125 (decimal 1.80) versus the Lightning, despite Mike Condon getting the nod for Ottawa. The Sens will welcome Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan back on the ice, but will be without Mark Stone. On Tampa’s side, Tyler Johnson might return from an injury, but no confirmation yet. While the Lightning are on the second leg of back-to-back games, Ottawa benefited from two days’ rest. Both teams have been flying high recently: the Sens are riding a 5-game winning streak, while Tampa has won 8 of its last 11 contests.

My last recommended pick is Minnesota at +120 (decimal 2.20) in Washington. What is going on with the Capitals? They looked fairly invincible throughout the year, but are now on a 4-game losing streak (all in regulation). They haven’t scored more than 2 goals in 6 straight games!! Devan Dubnyk will be facing Braden Holtby. Washington will be missing star defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk who was suspended. The Caps will be playing a third game in 4 nights. This will be the first meeting between these two teams in 2016-2017, but Washington has won the 3 most recent matchups.

At this time of writing, Edmonton is close to being a value bet. The line currently sits at -165 (decimal 1.61). If it moves to -160 (decimal 1.63) or higher, go for it.

Have a great day!

Professor MJ

Coin86 PM Coin86
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Posted: 3/14/2017 3:57:39 PM
livin2gamble PM livin2gamble
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Posted: 3/14/2017 4:25:22 PM
luv Oilers , as for Isles i put their tt over 2.5 at -125
nice write- ups Prof --> hope you will sweep tonight
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/15/2017 11:25:45 AM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

Today I have 2 profitable bets for you, one of which I’m pretty upset that I didn’t make my projections earlier because we missed on great value. Let’s dive into the details right away:

PENGUINS-FLYERS (Pinnacle -133 vs +120, Prof MJ -145 vs +145)
BRUINS-FLAMES (Pinnacle -105 vs -105, Prof MJ +122 vs -122)
WINGS-AVALANCHE (Pinnacle -130 vs +118, Prof MJ +102 vs -102)
BLUES-DUCKS (Pinnacle +118 vs -130, Prof MJ +127 vs -127)

First, I suggest taking the Avalanche at +118 (decimal 2.18) versus Detroit. Man did we miss on great value, as the line opened at +144. It went down to around +130 earlier this morning and now +118. With my projections having the Avalanche a 50/50 proposition to win the game, I still recommend taking them but it’s a bittersweet feeling. Calvin Pickard has been confirmed as Colorado’s starter tonight. He has won 12 of his 37 starts for a 32.4% win percentage, which is 4% higher than the team’s 27.9% overall win percentage. Strangely enough, the road team has won the last 7 meetings (Detroit has won the last 4 in Colorado), so I’m hoping the trends are not representative of tonight’s matchup. The Wings have only won a single game out of their last 6. As for Colorado, they went on a 2-game winning streak before losing the next two. At this time of writing, 71% of the bets have gone on Detroit, and yet the line moved heavily in favor of Colorado. Do we smell sharp money backing up the Avalanche?

What an interesting matchup: two very hot teams face each other at the Scotiabank Saddledome as the Flames host the Bruins. My pick goes to the Flames at -105 (decimal 1.95) against Boston. On one side, you have Boston who has won 11 of their 14 games since firing Claude Julien. On the other, you’ve got Calgary who is riding a team-record 10-game winning streak. Anton Khudobin has been named the starter for Boston. Here are some interesting numbers: Rask has won 33 of 55 starts which corresponds to a 60% win percentage, versus 4/14 = 28.6% for the other 3 goalies. That’s very bad news for the Bruins. I’m glad Rask isn’t starting because he has a 4-0-3 record (including 2 shutouts) against Calgary! Between the years 2010 to 2013, the Bruins went on a 5-game winning streak against Calgary. Since then, the Flames have beaten Boston on 4 occasions out of 5 matchups.

Good luck on your plays!!

Professor MJ
Donaldson123 PM Donaldson123
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Posted: 3/15/2017 12:11:25 PM
Appreciate the write ups on each game.
Posted using a mobile device.
Coin86 PM Coin86
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Posted: 3/15/2017 12:53:35 PM

Thanks for the write-up 

MaurickRBI PM MaurickRBI
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Posted: 3/15/2017 3:36:53 PM
I like them. I like these predictions Professor-MJ
MaurickRBI PM MaurickRBI
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Posted: 3/15/2017 3:42:26 PM
Thanks for the info
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/15/2017 3:54:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MaurickRBI:

Thanks for the info

You are very welcome!!
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/17/2017 1:42:07 PM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

After taking Thursday off on my NHL projections because I had to take care of some things I had been putting away for a while, I’m back for tonight’s four games. I have two value bets for you:

PANTHERS-RANGERS (Pinnacle +158 vs -175, Prof MJ +181 vs -181)
DEVILS-PENGUINS (Pinnacle +227 vs -255, Prof MJ +207 vs -207)
STARS-FLAMES (Pinnacle +182 vs -203, Prof MJ +239 vs -239)
SABRES-DUCKS (Pinnacle +188 vs -210, Prof MJ +218 vs -218)

I recommend taking a shot on the Devils at +227 (decimal 3.27) in Pittsburgh. At first, my projections were in line with the odds, but then the news came that Evgeni Malkin was going to miss the game and the line hasn’t moved! I updated each team’s win probability and it turns out New Jersey is now a profitable bet. Needless to say Pittsburgh has been plagued by a rash of injuries: Hagelin, Letang, Hornqvist, Daley, Maatta and more recently Ron Hainsey who will be out at least a week. The Penguins kept playing at a high level despite the injuries, but they have now lost 2 straight. Of course they are still more likely to win than the Devils, but with such odds I’m willing to gamble. You should also be aware that New Jersey is playing a second game in as many nights. Pittsburgh has beaten the Devils all three times this season (including two at home: 4-1 and 4-3 in extra time).

I’m going in a totally opposite direction by picking a heavy favorite: I like the Flames at -203 (decimal 1.49) versus Dallas. The Stars played last night and won 4-2 in Vancouver, but they might have lost their star player Jamie Benn. His status for tonight is unknown. Niemi is likely to be the starter with Lehtonen playing yesterday, which isn’t good news for Stars’ fans. Meanwhile, Brian Elliott has been confirmed as the starter for Calgary. His numbers over the past 9 games are jaw-dropping: 9 wins, 1.74 GAA and a 94.3% save percentage. Prior to last night’s win, the Stars went through a difficult three game stretch where they lost all of those games by a combined 17-4 score. Ouch. Let’s see if the Flames can rebound after seeing their 10-game winning streak snapped two days ago against Boston.

Good luck on your bets!!

Professor MJ
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Posted: 3/17/2017 4:24:53 PM
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

I am providing some projections on tomorrow’s games. Try to grab some early lines if possible. I’ve got 4 profitable bets for you, and there are 2 games where the line is off the board (I wrote this report Friday around 3-4pm) so I will give you some guidelines as to how to proceed when they come up. Enjoy the read!

AVALANCHE-WINS (Pinnacle +162 vs -180, Prof MJ +137 vs -137)
JACKETS-ISLANDERS (Pinnacle -120 vs +109, Prof MJ -138 vs +138)
RANGERS-WILD (Pinnacle off the board, Prof MJ +150 vs -150)
HAWKS-LEAFS (Pinnacle -111 vs +101, Prof MJ -124 vs +124)
CANADIENS-SENATORS (Pinnacle -109 vs -101, Prof MJ +115 vs -115)
CAPITALS-LIGHTNING (Pinnacle -128 vs +116, Prof MJ -128 vs +128)
PREDATORS-HURRICANES (Pinnacle -106 vs -104, Prof MJ -114 vs +114)
BLUES-COYOTES (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -130 vs +130)
CANUCKS-OILERS (Pinnacle +218 vs -245, Prof MJ +208 vs -208)
DUCKS-SHARKS (Pinnacle off the board, Prof MJ +194 vs -194)


I picked Colorado to beat Detroit 3 days ago. I’m at it again, as I advise to take the Avalanche at +162 (decimal 2.62) in Detroit. I can’t believe the line is that high! I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes down to around +150 tomorrow. Calvin Pickard has already been confirmed as the Avs’ starting goalie, which is good. Today I found a very interesting article that presents the home team’s win probability depending on whether the home or road team benefited from 1-2-3 more day(s)’ rest than its opponent. For example, they claim the home team wins 55% of games overall. Now, when the road team has had 1 more day to rest, the home team wins 53% of the time. In other words, they “gain” an additional 2%. I took that into account here, and I will use this report’s numbers in the future (I’d like to double-check in the near future with my own dataset which contains 9 full NHL seasons of data). The Avalanche has won 3 of its last 5 games, while Detroit has only won 2 of their last 8 matches. I also like the fact that Colorado has won the last 3 meetings in Detroit (all in extra time, but it still shows they are not intimidated there).

I’m also taking Ottawa -101 (decimal 1.99) at home against the Habs. In injury news, Radulov and Emelin are battling the flu and their status is uncertain (at least one of them will probably play). For Ottawa, they will be missing their second-leading scorer Mark Stone because of a leg injury. Price has been named the starter, we don’t know yet whether Condon or Anderson will defend the Sens’ cage. Both teams have won 7 of their last 10 games. Ottawa won 6 straight before dropping the last two games (2-1 in overtime against Tampa and 2-1 against Chicago, so nothing to be ashamed of). The Sens have won both meetings by a 4-3 score so far this year.

The next pick goes to Columbus -120 (decimal 1.83) on the road against the Islanders. Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to be the starter since the team might prefer to put Korpisalo in net against the lowly Devils the next day. The home team has won all 3 meetings this season, so I’m hoping the trend ends: the Jackets won 7-0 and 6-2 at home, but lost 4-2 in New York. I’m also a bit worried about the Isles winning 6 of the past 8 matchups, but the odds offer too much value to pass.

Finally, I’m going with Chicago -111 (decimal 1.90) in Toronto. Claiming that the Hawks are on fire would be an understatement: they have won 15 of their last 18 games! Unfortunately for them they lost Artem Anisimov to an injury three days ago against Montreal. He will be out Saturday night. Chicago is on a 4-game winning streak against the Leafs (dating back to December 2014).

Some guidelines regarding the two games whose lines are off the board at this time of writing (Friday afternoon):

- Bet the Rangers if the line is +164 (decimal 2.64) or higher, bet the Wild if the line is -132 (decimal 1.76) or higher.

- Bet the Ducks if the line is +310 (decimal 2.10) or higher, bet the Sharks if the line is -166 (decimal 1.60) or higher.

Enjoy your Saturday!!

Professor MJ
MaurickRBI PM MaurickRBI
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Posted: 3/19/2017 12:51:08 PM
Good morning Professor-MJ
What projects do you have for today?
Professor-MJ PM Professor-MJ
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:05:22 AM
Hello all, I hope you had a great weekend, the weather was awesome here in Quebec City!

We kick off the week with 2 value bets, including one I like a lot. Let’s see if it agrees with your own analyses, as usual I did my best to bring some insight to you. Here are the day’s projections:

BRUINS-LEAFS (Pinnacle -117 vs +106, Prof MJ -105 vs +105)
SABRES-WINGS (Pinnacle +144 vs -160, Prof MJ +123 vs -123)
COYOTES-PREDATORS (Pinnacle +222 vs -250, Prof MJ +233 vs -233)
SHARKS-STARS (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -150 vs +150)
KINGS-OILERS (Pinnacle +115 vs -127, Prof MJ +160 vs -160)

I especially like Edmonton -127 (decimal 1.79) against Los Angeles. The Oilers have the better record. They have won 3 straight. And the Kings are playing a second game in as many nights. What’s not to like? Now, how has the season series been? The Kings won 4-2 at home, while McDavid’s squad got revenge 3-1 at home. It’s worth mentioning that Los Angeles had beaten Edmonton on 6 straight occasions prior to that 3-1 game last December. Cam Talbot has now started the last 11 Oilers’ games, but I’m hopeful he will be the starter again since the Oilers are looking at back-to-back games next Wednesday and Thursday (Brossoit should get the call in one of those).

I’m switching to an underdog: I recommend betting Buffalo +144 (decimal 2.44) in Detroit. Both teams have several injured players, but none that has a great impact, except Kyle Okposo for Buffalo (their third-highest scorer). The Sabres are 2-0-1 against the Wings this year, including a 4-3 regulation win in Detroit on December 27. Buffalo went on a 3-game winning streak, but have dropped 10 of their last 13 games. As for Detroit, they lost 4 straight before winning 3 of their last 5 contests. They haven’t faced tough opponents recently, as they played Colorado twice, and Arizona (the two worst teams in the NHL).

I would like to end this report by suggesting to bet the Sharks in Dallas if the line moves to -133 (decimal 1.75) or higher during the day.

Have a good Monday!

Professor MJ
MaurickRBI PM MaurickRBI
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Posted: 3/20/2017 12:38:54 PM
Thank you Professor
Attentive and successful as always
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